Jay writes:

Bloom has done such a great job at creating the feeling that the roster is always evolving. The roster stasis under Mozeliak had become unbearable. That said, it often feels like Bloom is swapping a flat tire for a bald tire, which is not really the “upgrade” the media often labels it. Such is life in a retooling, right? But too often this season certain players have hung around (Gorman, Pages, Scott) under the guise of “well, he’s a better option than (insert name of AAAA player on major league roster).” While significant payroll is not likely to be added in 2027, I do hope real upgrades will be made, even if they are tires with just some tread remaining.

I’ll push back a bit here. As much as we’re tired of the term “runway,” it’s still relevant, and those young/young-ish players were being given an opportunity to find a higher level under the expanded dugout staff and, behind the scenes, the overhauled and improved player-development program.

You’ll recall that Nolan Gorman in particular didn’t receive consistent playing time last season -- 402 plate appearances in 107 games and duty at two infield positions. That was because of a pair of stints on the injured list and a crowded infield that at that time still included Nolan Arenado. Maybe we felt like Gorman was given too much run this season while not producing, but, well, he was optioned after just 62 games played in St. Louis. I also think it’s worth appreciating the significant defensive strides Gorman made this season at third base. That strikes me as a measured yet responsive decision timeline. As for Scott, it’s more of the same. He spent the winter retooling his swing and approach, and after 61 games in the majors this year the Cardinals decided he needed more developmental time in Memphis (a decision aided by the returns of Lars Nootbaar and Nathan Church from the IL).

I, too, was a bit vexed by the decision to prioritize Pedro Pagés to such an extent, but in retrospect I understand the developmental time given to Jimmy Crooks this year (aside: Crooks’ quality of contact since being recalled has been quite good, so don’t sweat his top-line numbers). Chaim Bloom has said repeatedly that prospects are going to be promoted when they’re deemed ready and not necessarily when needs at the highest level are most acute. That’s quite sensible.

Overall, I understand your frustrations without necessarily sharing them.

Brian writes:

What happened to Masyn Winn’s hitting? As a 22-year-old he had a 104 OPS+. The year after it was 90. This year it’s 77. His home runs in those same years: 15 - 9 - 2 (on pace for 5). His isolated power: 149 - 110 - 83. Is it all related to the lingering knee problems he’s had since last year’s All-Star break? (His OPS+ in the first half last year was 95 - only around 76 ever since.) And if it is knee-related, at what point to the Cards considering putting him on the IL for a few weeks to help him regain his lower-body strength?

He’s more than 1,500 plate appearances into his big-league career, and across that span he has a .297 wOBA and a .309 xwOBA. Even in 2024 when Winn popped 15 home runs and had an OPS+ of 104, his xwOBA was .315. Maybe this is just who he is as a hitter? And, frankly, that’s OK. Winn provides a high floor thanks to his defensive excellence at the premium position of shortstop, and offensively he’s not a major liability by positional standards. MLB shortstop this season have a wOBA of .309 and an xwOBA of .310 (this year, Winn’s xwOBA is .313). As long as he remains arguably the best defensive shortstop in baseball, you can live with that production at the plate.

I suppose it’s possible Winn’s knee is still an issue, as his sprint speeds, while still significantly above average, haven’t really gotten back to those 2023-24 levels. However, that’s all conjecture.

Jibby writes:

What is your favorite book you have read so far this year?

My top five of 2026 thus far:

1. The Great Believers by Rebecca Makkai

2. Ohio by Stephen Markley

3. The Deluge by Stephen Markley

4. And the Band Played On By Randy Shilts

5. Pachinko by Min Jin Lee

I just finished The Director by Daniel Kehlmann, and while I liked it overall it lost some momentum for me in the second half. I love reading recs, so feel free to share your own in the comments.

Kyle writes:

Can you provide your current preferred lineups against vs a righty and a lefty? They’re developing an interesting cast of characters

I do love lineup talk. Here’s how I’d go with the current active roster.

Versus RHPs

1. JJ Wetherholt, 2B

2. Jordan Walker, RF

3. Alec Burleson, 1B

4. Iván Herrera, DH

5. Lars Nootbaar, LF

6. Blaze Jordan 3B

7. Jimmy Crooks, C

8. Nathan Church, CF

9. Mason Winn, SS

Versus LHPs

1. JJ Wetherholt, 2B

2. Jordan Walker, RF

3. Iván Herrera, DH

4. Nelson Velázquez, LF

5. Alec Burleson, 1B

6. Blaze Jordan, 3B

7. Masyn Winn, SS

8. Nathan Church, CF

9. Jimmy Crooks, C

I’d like to get Walker’s power in that two hole, although there’s nothing wrong with Herrera’s on-base chops at that spot (Herrera’s GIDP tendencies do give me pause when it comes to putting him just behind Wetherholt). When Herrera’s catching, I’d DH Crooks against right-handers and Velázquez against lefties (while playing Nootbaar in left against lefties under such circumstances). Winn should be batting ninth against right-handers, and batting him ninth breaks up the lefty lane before the lineup flips back around to Wetherholt. I can see the argument for dropping Burleson a spot against lefties.

Don writes:

I’ve been shouting till I was blue in the face, figuratively of course, to anyone who will listen that the cardinals operating w a 37 man roster this year is a giant deal as far as trying to contend goes. Overreacting, moderate concern or major concern? It’s huge as far as pitching goes in 2026 IMO.

I’ll assume you’re talking about the injured pitchers on the 40-player roster -- Richard Fitts, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe, who just recently returned to action after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. In the case of Fitts and Roby, who won’t pitch in 2026, they could be recalled and then placed on the 60-day IL, which would clear spots on the 40. However, doing so would mean they would accrue MLB service time, and, fair or not, teams don’t like for well regarded young players to whittle away at their service time while being unavailable when such a thing can be avoided. I think the roster feels this when it comes to paths for bullpen churn (having more relievers with minor league options remaining would help matters). My guess is that if they did have those three spots available, then Luis Gastelum and Scott Blewett would probably take up two of them, and maybe they’d keep one open for Quinn Mathews at a date to be determined. Whatever the case, the reality is the Cardinals have prioritized preserving service time over maxed-out roster flexibility.

Eric writes:

I have read articles by well respected baseball analysts calling the Cardinals fraudulent due to their underlying metrics, third order record, etc. And while I respect that line of thought and the work that goes into it, how much does it matter at the end of the season? For example, wouldn’t you rather be a team that makes the playoffs with a third order record 8 wins less than your actual record versus a team with a third order record 8 wins more than actual but miss the playoffs?

It’s a legit concern when you look forward, and anecdotally there’s some sentiment that the first two games of the Royal series hinted at coming regression (Cardinal 70 recently had a very good piece on this). Right now, the Cardinals have a plus-4 run differential, which translates to an expected record of 38-37 at this point of the season. The third order standings peg the Cardinals at 36.6-37.4. In other words, the team has outplayed expectations by three games so far. That’s not a cavernous margin, but it’s notable. Let’s note, though, that among the Cardinals’ fellow wild card contenders, just three teams -- the Cubs, Nationals, and Pirates -- have better run differentials. The Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Reds are all in negative territory and have out-played their run differentials by greater margins than the Cardinals have. The Marlins are at zero.

Teams can and do outplay their run differentials over the course of an entire season, but, yes, more often a team will find that underlying level. If, say, the Cardinals are .500-ish the rest of the way, then that’s still 85 wins or so, and I’d expect that would put them in the mix for a wild-card spot. Let’s also note the margins are tight. A hot week could flip this particular script entirely. For now, though, it’s entirely fair to point out the Cardinals have enjoyed some good fortune thus far in 2026.

Matt writes:

Do they try to extend Dustin May? He’s put back on the weight he lost during that weird killer salad issue almost 2 years ago and is pitching like an ace. I can imagine him wanting some security with a longer contract as he turns 29 soon, and DeWitt currently has a pre-arb payroll commitment of just $43 million next year. May at the top of this pitching staff for the next several years would be a welcome sight to see. Wait and see if he lasts the entire year of course.

As I wrote last time out, I’m in favor of this (despite his rough outing on Sunday). As long as he remains healthy and performing in such a manner, the Cardinals would do well to pursue an extension. He seems to be enjoying pitching in St. Louis, and thus far the Cardinals’ approach to pitcher health has at least coincided with a peak run by May. Something that gives him the freedom of opt-outs and the security of more conventional player options on the back end could make it workable for both sides. I hope it happens.

Matt writes:

Diamondbacks are apparently looking for a LH bat and relief pitching. Would Burleson and Romero get the D-Backs Comp A pick along with some pitching prospects? I know I’m in the minority on Burleson, but that weird tomahawk swing and poor defense at 1B...can’t get over those in my head. Maybe if he had Griffey’s swing (not necessarily the same results), I might get past this issue.

I don’t like to get into specific trade packages, but I can’t imagine the Cardinals are interested in trading one of their best hitters -- in terms of both top-line results and underlying batted-ball performance -- who’s 27 years old and still has two full seasons of team control left. That strikes me as a deal that might be considered more seriously during the offseason.

Whatever you think of the aesthetics of Burleson’s swing, he finds the ideal attack angle more than half the time and at a better clip than the average MLB hitter. Defensively, yes, he’s a net minus, but let’s appreciate that he has just a bit more than 1,200 career defensive innings at the position. I do, however, expect JoJO Romero to be traded before the Aug. 3 deadline.

Matt writes:

Do you think the next CBA will include an international draft?

I do not. Latin players, who of course make up a large percentage of MLBPA membership, are in general terms opposed to an international draft because it would strip away the freedom of younger Latin players to pick their organization. It would be a major and divisive concession for the players to make.

Along these lines, MLB’s recent proposal to overhaul the draft may best be characterized as a cynical farce. Too much of the current guild of owners, far too infiltrated by the private-equity mindset, want to limit costs above all, full stop. They don’t seem to care how much long-term harm it does to the game because they plan to cash out before those consequences are realized. Their proposal to cut the draft to 12 rounds and ban high school players from being drafted essentially offloads developmental duties to college programs, who have far different incentives (short-term performance over long-term development) than major league organizations do. The league’s behavior in CBA negotiations thus far has been deeply unserious.

OK, that’ll do for it this round. Thanks for all the great contributions, and I’ll be back soon.

Let’s begin with a trio of deadline-related questions.

Anthony writes:

Which Cardinals are likely to be traded at the deadline? Before the season, the list of likely trade candidates looked (to me) like May, Stanek, Romero, O’Brien, Nootbaar, Urias, and Pages. Because of our success to this point, I think that list has changed. I think we’ll keep Nootbaar and Pages as least through this season, and Urias isn’t going to be healthy enough to trade. What are your thoughts? Thanks!

Skip writes:

Last year, Craig Breslow overpaid for two months of Dustin May, giving up Tibbs and Ehrhard. Per the Boston Globe, at the time, members of the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Giants FOs were all surprised Breslow offered Tibbs, with one source saying the Dodgers FO “couldn’t agree fast enough”.

May is having a far better season this year than last year. Should last year’s return be the floor for moving him this year, or should we see it as an aberration? Would a Tibbs-level return for two months of 2026 May outweigh the benefits of an extension, or should Bloom seek more?

Kyle writes:

If Chaim decides he wants to trade Nootbaar and May, (in my opinion, the two players who would bother the fans the most if traded) what can he do to spin it to the fans without them getting mad at him? He seems to be doing all he can to brace folks ahead of time, but pulling the actual trigger is going to upset a lot of people. He seems to still have a near 100% approval rating, and I’m looking forward to how he handles the public-facing part of this challenge.

This is really the forward-looking story with the Cardinals right now. How does Chaim Bloom navigate the Aug. 3 trade deadline and balance the team’s contention/increasing popularity with the long-term focus that’s served the club so well since he took over?

As I write this, FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 49.9% chance of making the postseason, and in related matters they’re on pace for 90 wins. With the clubhouse and dugout vibes strong and fan enthusiasm on the uptick, there’s going to be a lot of pressure not to trade away a core piece like Dustin May or Lars Nootbaar. On the other side, May’s renaissance this season will make him a coveted target, especially given that the seller side of the deadline might be light this time around. Nootbaar looks wholly revived after recovering from surgery on both heels, and he’s still under team control for 2027.

The only thing I’m confident in saying is that Bloom isn’t going to swing big from the buy side leading up to the deadline. I don’t foresee any set of circumstances in which the Cardinals are in the mix for theoretical name targets like Tarik Skubal or Joe Ryan or Aroldis Chapman or Freddy Peralta or even Reid Detmers (who’s 26 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season). He’s just not going to dip that deeply into the rebuilt farm system for a team that’s arrived ahead of schedule and this season has been able to fill holes internally.

As for what will happen -- and this is all subject to change depending on the standings -- my guess at this point is that Nootbaar does get moved. I think there’s more “cover” for this one given that the team was in contention before he returned from the 60-day injured list on June 5. (That said, there’s no doubt Noot has improved this lineup.) As well, the scorching-hot Joshua Báez (more on him in a moment) could be called up to replace Noot in left field and, also like Noot, see some time in center. There’s a lot of enthusiasm building up around Báez, and as frustrating as it would be for the fan base to bid Noot adieu, not much livens up the rooters like the arrival of a premium prospect -- especially one with big-time power potential.

May strikes me as more of a market read closer to the deadline. He’s been healthy, his velocity’s back, he’s trending upward, and right now he ranks 12th in MLB among qualifiers in FIP. He’s a rental, which will lower the return (his mutual option for 2027, like most mutual options, is effectively meaningless), but he’s also modestly priced, as he’ll be owed the balance of a $12.5 million salary for 2026. If the Tigers continue to linger near-ish to the very low bar of the third AL wild card spot, they might opt to retain Skubal. If the Angels bow to common sense, they’ll keep Detmers, as he’s young enough and has enough remaining control to build around (the same goes for José Soriano). If those things happen, the supply of needle-moving starting pitchers likely on the move would be pretty thin after Ryan in Minnesota. If that’s indeed the case, and Hunter Dobbins and or Quinn Mathews are pounding on the door of the rotation, then I think May goes.

My preference is to extend May. He’s 28, and thus far this has been a mutually beneficial pairing of player and team. Perhaps, this close to free agency and having re-established his value, he’s not willing to sign an extension, but the possibility is worth vigorously exploring. Something with a slew of opt-outs at front end and conventional player options at the back end could lower the cost for the Cardinals, who do have genuine revenue concerns right now, and give May the biggest payday of his career while also providing him with a great deal of freedom. Short of that, there’s much to be said for keeping May for the stretch drive (and maybe playoffs!) and, in the absence of an extension, just tagging him with a qualifying offer in what may be the last offseason of that system.

My subect-to-change guess is that Bloom leading up to the deadline trades away Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Ryne Stanek, and Pedro Pagés. May feels like a coin-flip to me right now. That “subject to change” qualifier is important because it’s June 18, and Bloom can discuss trade parameters while the season continues to unfold in the background. Another four or five weeks should help clarify where the team stands and whether their current record or their current run differential is the truer indicator. Nothing needs to be decided now.

Finally, I think Craig Breslow is bad at his job, and the Sox’s decision to fire Bloom and pivot to him is yet another own-goal by ownership. Bloom and Breslow have already teamed up on multiple trades, and I’d love a bit more of that “asymmetrical warfare” leading up to this deadline. Sadly, the Sox are probably sellers rather than buyers this time around. I do appreciate the trade market established for May last summer, but trade markets sometimes aren’t all that informed by precedent in prior seasons. It’s more about supply and demand in the current year.

Eric writes:

Is Nolan Gorman no longer a developmental priority for the organization? It seems he should not be given the large sample size and lack of progress.

I do think he’s a priority, and I think of Oli Marmol’s pretty emphatic words following the decision to demote Gorman to Triple-A. Via Derrick Goold, here’s what Marmol said at the time:

“My hope in all this — and I want to be super clear on this — I and we as an organization are not giving up on Nolan Gorman. (He’ll get time) to figure out a way to remake the swing in order to get him to where he’s comfortable with it and then testing it out and going from there in a game setting. Because we can be a heck of a lot better if he’s back up here at some point hitting doubles and homers and especially with the improvement he’s made defensively. That’s my hope.”

Gorman has yet to play for Memphis, which means he’s in the “lab” addressing swing flaws and grooving a new approach at the plate, all surely under watchful sets of eyes. That’s not the approach you take with or the words you say about a throwaway player. This, after all, is a slugger who as a 23-year-old in 2023 hit 27 homers in 119 games with an ISO of .242. Gorman doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence after more than 1,800 plate appearances in the majors, but what does inspire a lot of confidence is the Cardinals’ reconstructed player-development program. They’re not giving up on the former first-rounder, at least until further notice. You give a hitter with his kind of power potential every opportunity to adapt.

Ron writes:

Who is next to be brought up from Memphis?

How long until Tink and Hjerpe are ready to contribute in St Louis?

Chris Roycroft was optioned to Memphis after the loss to the Padres on Wednesday, and at this writing a corresponding move hasn’t been made. The guess is that Brycen Mautz is en route, but he’s already been up once. I’ll say righty reliever Luis Gastelum and his wipeout changeup are next up. He’s not on the 40-player roster, and the 40 is full right now. That means a move will be necessary. Are Roycroft’s days on the 40 numbered? Maybe Justin Bruihl is a name to watch, but he’s fared much better in recent appearances. I think the Cardinals are still searching for their ideal bullpen mix, but there are limited options for churn thanks to the lack of minor league options that they’ll actually use. The 24-year-old Gastelum this season at Memphis has a 2.92 ERA in 37 innings, and he’s struck out 26.4% of opposing batters. He also boasts pretty balanced platoon tendencies, which is nice to have in the era of the three-batter minimum. I doubt we see Hence and Hjerpe in St. Louis this season. Hence is trying to rebuild his stuff and find his way to more stamina and durability, and Hjerpe is three appearances into his comeback from Tommy John surgery. Maybe we see one or both of them in September but probably not before then. Hjerpe in particular will probably be handled conservatively during this bridge year.

The unspoken part of this question, for me at least, is Joshua Báez. Báez is fresh off a stunning four-homer performance, and for his age-23 season he’s slugging .621 at Memphis with 23 home runs in 63 games. Not surprisingly, his batted-ball quality is also strong -- he’s got a hard-hit rate north of 50% and a barrel rate of 27.6% (the latter versus a Triple-A average mark of 17.2%). This comes off a breakout 2025 performance in which he added power and drastically cut down on his strikeout rate at Double-A. Much has been expected of the toolsy Báez for some time, and he’s been making good on the press clippings for months and months. However, he’s not going to be in St. Louis until there’s a clear path to regular playing time. Nootbaar’s back, Nathan Church is getting runway in center, and Nelson Velázquez has more than filled the role of part-time lefty masher in the outfield. There’s just no room for him presently.

The other concern is Báez’s plate discipline. His strikeout rate has spiked to more than 30% (it was 20.6% last season), and he’s walking in just 7.0% of his plate appearances. He’s also chasing at pitches outside the strike zone 36.7% of the time versus a Triple-A average chase rate of 27.3%. His swinging-strike rate is much higher than that of his peers, and the same goes for his contact rate on pitches in the zone. Some of these indicators have gotten modestly better in June but not all of them. All of this raises worries that Báez right now won’t be able to put bat on ball often enough against big-league pitching. The power numbers are deeply impressive, but these are real red flags and indicators that Báez is still a work in progress. For all these reasons, I don’t think a promotion is imminent, and honestly I don’t think it should be. I’m very bullish on Báez long-term, but he needs to command the zone better than he is right now. I’ll repeat that maybe post-deadline is his horizon.

Jay writes:

I know that Bloom and DeWitt have both telegraphed a minimal payroll through 2027 but does the massive organizational hole at 3rd base change that timeline? Gorman is done, he was done last year but they had to try one more time. Meanwhile, there isn’t a Baez percolating in Memphis, there isn’t even a Rodriguez down in AA who can play third. The organizational depth at 3rd base is awful. Does Bloom look to make his first big FA/trade this winter, ahead of schedule, to fill an obvious hole that has no internal option to even dream on?

I don’t think so. Blaze Jordan is the guy right now, and his defense at third has been much better than advertised or expected thus far. Offensively, I have some concerns about his low walk rate and high-ish ground-ball proclivities, but he can put bat to ball and occasionally pop it. They’re going to see what he is, and he might be the long-term guy at the hot corner. I’ll also repeat what I said above and note that Gorman is not yet a lost cause. You’re right, though, that it’s not the strongest position in terms of organizational depth. Down in Peoria, 21-year-old Jesús Báez, whom they got from the Mets in the Ryan Helsley trade, may be one to watch. He’s a primary shortstop right now, but he’s seen time at third. This season, he’s got 14 homers in 53 games. For the time being, though, let’s appreciate that Jordan could be the fix.

OK, that’ll do it for this time around. I’ll be back soon with the answers to the rest of your mailbag contributions.

The Cardinals remain in top wild card position in the National League, and the leading subplot is the remaking of the bottom of the lineup. Consider what Oli Marm…

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On the upside, the offense may be poised to improve. Catcher Jimmy Crooks was recently recalled from Memphis, and he’ll be the primary catcher moving forward, at least once the Cardinals get clear of this recent glut of lefty starting pitchers they’ve faced. That’s welcome news, as Pedro Pagés, for all his defensive and leadership merits (and the fact that he seems like a very swell guy and teammate), just can’t hit, and the top-heavy Cardinals lineup badly needs some length to it. Crooks is coming off a scorching performance at Triple-A this season, one rich with home runs and walks. His strikeout issues improved in May, and as I recently pointed out those strikeout issues were in large measure confined to platoon-disadvantaged spots. Crooks projects as a substantial offensive upgrade over Pagés, and he’s made excellent strides behind the plate. As a former major-college draftee who’s 24 years old and has more than 600 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, he should be as ready as he’ll ever be.

What also figures to help the lineup is the return of Lars Nootbaar. Coming off bilateral heel surgery in the off-season, he’ll be activated from the 60-day injured list on Friday and, presumably, be in the lineup that night against the Reds. Nootbaar and the Cardinals both believe that heel malady cost him at the plate and at the field in 2025, and for what it’s worth he slashed .257/.409/.543 across 44 plate appearances on his just-completed minor league rehab assignment. Nootbaar plus the recent roster addition of Nelson Velázquez should greatly improve the left field situation and give the Cardinals the option of making Nathan Church the primary center fielder once he returns from his shoulder strain. (For the moment, we’ll table any discussion of the magma-hot Joshua Báez as the center fielder of the present and future.)

With the pitching gradually appearing to level up, a lengthening of the lineup would be the ideal complement. Crooks and Nootbaar -- and to a more limited extent, Velázquez -- should help that happen.

That brings us to this week’s temperature check ...

• Record: 32-28, second place in NL Central, tied for first/second wild card spot

• Run differential: minus-12

• Third-order record: 29.5-30.5

• FanGraphs playoff odds: 26.4%

• Strength of schedule: .510 opponents’ average winning percentage, fifth in MLB

• Remaining strength of schedule: .509 opponents’ average winning percentage, seventh in MLB

• Average home attendance per game: 28,176; 16th in MLB

And now let’s do what must be done and talk about the leading off-the-field matter of the moment.

As you’re probably aware, the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) -- the accord that governs the working relationship between players as represented by the MLBPA and club owners -- expires on Dec. 1 of this year. At that point, owners are expected to lock out the players if there’s not a new CBA in place or close to the finish line.

While negotiations have been running in the background for some time, they began in a formal sense in early May. Late May brought us the opening proposals from each side. If the spirit moves you, you can read about the union’s opening offer here, and the league’s first “almost comically light on specifics” proposal here. As expected, owners are proposing a salary cap with a salary floor and a 50-50 revenue split with players that, thanks to carve-outs, isn’t actually a 50-50 split and may even amount to a decline in total player salary. The players, meantime, want a tax floor to go with the luxury tax ceiling that’s been in place for years, and they’re also asking to roughly double the minimum salary (which would necessarily make getting to a salary floor less of a leap for teams in violation). As is the nature of opening offers, they’re a mix of starting points and posturing and nothing that either side actually expects to get in those earliest forms. The real negotiating starts now, as we see the two sides in subsequent proposals and counter-proposals soften or even vacate many of those initial asks.

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First, this week’s temperature check ...

• Record: 29-23, second place in NL Central, in second wild card spot

• Run differential: minus-3

• Third-order record: 25-27

• FanGraphs playoff odds: 27.5%

• Strength of schedule: .511 opponents’ average winning percentage, eighth in MLB

• Remaining strength of schedule: .512 opponents’ average winning percentage, seventh in MLB

• Average home attendance per game: 27,736; 16th in MLB

Now let’s talk it out.

Jordan Walker thoughts

He just keeps doing it, doesn’t he? He’s coming off an 0 for 3 against Misiorowki and the Brewers, but his only strikeout probably should’ve been a walk. However, plate ump Marvin Hudson declined to ask for help on his checked-swing strike three call in the fourth inning. Just prior to that, Walker homered twice in as many days in Cincinnati. At this writing, he’s second in the National League with a 3.1 WAR and tied for the NL lead in OPS+ with a mark of 172. In very much related matters, Walker this season is flashing elite batted-ball quality, and he’s whittled his K% down from 31.8 in 2025 to 25.7 this season. His groundball percentage is a career low by a wide margin, and his rate of pulled balls in the air is a career high by a wide margin. Eyeball his xwOBAs against all the various pitch types, and they’re all at least respectable versus the offerings he’s faced in any meaningful number. He’s simply a different hitter, and the sample at this writing is up to 218 plate appearances.

Now let’s approach this from an angle that’s very uncharitable toward Walker. Let’s throw out that season-opening heater he was on when he homered eight times in his first 16 games. Here’s what he’s done since that power streak ended (including the slump that immediately followed his eighth homer of the season on April 13):

• Walker is batting .281/.355/.504 since April 14 with seven home runs and nine doubles in 35 games and 152 plate appearances since April 14. That’s good for a wOBA of .370.

• While his xwOBA of .334 is a bit lower than his wOBA, Walker over this span has a higher barrel rate than he does overall in 2026 (18.4% versus 16.4% -- both elite figures), and his average exit velocity since April 14 is 93.5 mph.

• His K% is 25.0 over this same span, slightly lower than his overall figure.

• His groundball rate since April 14 of 41.8% is slightly higher than his overall mark of 39.3%, but it would still be a career low. It’s also lower than the league-average mark of 42.9%.

Know what we’d be saying if the above were his overall 2026 numbers instead of the MVP-caliber outputs he has in reality? We’d still be saying Walker has finally leveled up and that all his assiduous work in the cages on grooving his latest suite of mechanical changes has allowed him to be what we hoped he’d be. There is, of course, absolutely no reason to throw out those first 16 games of his 2026 season, but doing so makes the point that Walker is far more than “just” that thunderous start to his age-24 campaign.

This leads me to a couple of questions about Walker, one near-term and one a more longer-term consideration. First, should he be the No. 2 hitter in Oli Marmol’s lineup? I pose this question not as any kind of indictment of the current No. 2 hitter Iván Herrera, who himself an excellent batsman. Rather, this is an acknowledgement that Walker is probably the team’s best hitter on what I believe is a sustainable basis. Putting your best hitter in the two hole is the sweet spot between maximizing plate appearances and RBI opportunities behind what is ideally an on-base threat in the leadoff spot (JJ Wetherholt with his .359 OBP and 11.8 BB% certainly qualifies). As well, Walker thanks in part to his deceptive speed is a much less of a double play threat than Herrera, and as a fellow righty swinger he’d keep the lefty-righty lineup balance that Marmol wisely favors. Walker has a couple of career starts at the No. 2 spot, so it’s not entirely unfamiliar territory to him. Maybe there’s a case to be made for his comfort level in the three or four spot, but that seems like a reach. The point is I kind of like the look of this possible lineup in another week or so:

1. JJ Wetherholt, 2B

2. Jordan Walker, RF

3. Alec Burleson, 1B

4. Ivan Herrera, DH

5. Lars Nootbaar, LF

6. Masyn Winn, SS

7. Nolan Gorman, 3B

8. Pedro Pagés, C*

9. Bryan Torres, CF**

*I prefer Jimmy Crooks, as recently detailed in this space, but I’m bowing to realities.

**Hold your fire, more on this in a moment. I’m not married to the idea.

The bottom half of the lineup is going to remain a problem, but I’d love Walker’s thump just behind Wetherholt along with the possibility of getting him an extra trip to the plate.

As for that long-term consideration, is it time to approach Walker about a long-term contract extension? Increasingly, I have my doubts that we’re going to see any pre-arb extensions any time soon. Wetherholt’s age is a complicating factor, as he and his reps probably aren’t fond of hitting the free agent market for the first time when he’s shin-deep into this thirties (that would be the case with any extension that buys out multiple free agent years). As for Winn, Chaim Bloom and company may want to see a higher gear at the plate before committing to him beyond his team-control years.

That brings us back to Walker. He entered the current season with just a bit more than two years of MLB service time, which means he’s going to be arbitration-eligible this coming winter. That also means he’s in line to be a free agent after the 2029 season, when he’ll still be just 27 years of age. A 27-year-old with big-time power and the ability to capably man an outfield corner with speed and a big arm is going to get paid on the market.

There’s risk here, of course. It’s possible that Walker’s 2026 performance to date turns out to be illusory on some level or that his fine-tuned swing mechanics get lost all too often over the longer haul. Every day, I find this to be less and less likely, but the possibility is still there. That said, I don’t find going in on Walker long-term to be any riskier than, say, committing the better part of a decade to a player who has yet to reach the majors, which a number of teams have done. The other side of this is that Walker probably becomes less and less willing to sign an extension the longer this general level of production keeps up and the nearer his free agency creeps.

As for comparable extensions, Bobby Witt Jr.’s with the Royals may be a high-end model. He was 24 with exactly two years of MLB service time when he inked his 11-year, $288.8 million pact with KC prior to the 2024 season. Witt was a former No. 2 overall pick coming off a 2023 campaign in which he finished seventh in the American League MVP vote and a credible rookie season in 2022. As such, he was more of a known quantity than Walker is now, so a discount may be in order. Perhaps we’re talking about the ground between Witt’s extension and the seven-year, $106.5 million deal that Andrés Giménez signed prior to the 2023 season. At that point, Giménez was also 24 years of age with a bit more than two years of service time. A Walker deal would heavily lean toward the Witt side of that continuum, I suspect. Would something in the $240-250 million neighborhood be enough to buy out a slew of Walker’s free agent years? From the front office standpoint, this is, I think, something worth seriously pondering and seriously pondering very soon.

On Bryan Torres

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First up, some bullpen talk.

Jay writes:

Svanson has allowed 1 or more runs in 11 of his 18 (61%) appearances. Is he out of options? Otherwise, watching him toil in the majors, no matter how much Bloom/Oli believe in him, …

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Let’s start with a couple of Pedro Pagés questions, including one from our celebrity interlocutor.

The great Will Leitch…

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You know how this goes. To contribute, you may repl…

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Now for this week’s temperature check ...

• Record: 21-14, second place in NL Central, in top wild card spot

• Run differential: plus-three

• Third-order record: 17.4-17.6

• FanGraphs playoff odds: 29.3%

• Strength of schedule: .504 opponents’ average winning percentage, 11th in MLB

• Remaining strength of schedule: .521 opponents’ average winning percentage, fourth in MLB

• Average home attendance per game: 27,326, 18th in MLB

Now let’s talk it out.

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“Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said Monday he’s open to feedback about his communication style, which drew criticism a day earlier after the team’s surprise firing of manager Alex Cora and five members of his coaching staff.

“Veteran shortstop Trevor Story called Breslow’s explanation of Cora’s firing when Breslow met with the team Sunday morning not “satisfactory.” Reliever Garrett Whitlock noted that Breslow didn’t give players the chance to ask questions during that meeting.”

This is just the latest example of dysfunction going back for the better part of a decade, roughly coincident with John Henry’s devolution from one of the best owners in Major League Baseball to one of the worst. As Joon Lee summarized by anecdote:

“Multiple executives and former Red Sox employees described the organization as a high-pressure environment with diminishing internal support, particularly over the last five years. Current front office staffers noted the job listings posted by the Washington Nationals, now led by former Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni. Washington’s job posting this winter emphasized joy, humility, integrity and competitiveness – values that read less like corporate boilerplate than a corrective to the environment Toboni experienced in Boston, according to people familiar with his thinking.”

I’m talking about the Red Sox only to make the point that I’m happy for Chaim Bloom on a personal level that he’s no longer subjected to this kind of serialized nonsense. In frank terms, he was done dirty by Boston, and one has to suspect he appreciates the simple normality in place in St. Louis right now. From the sweeping expansion of front office and coaching staff to all the cash included in off-season trades in order to improve the returns, he’s had the support of ownership during a time of uncertain revenues. It remains to be seen what the support level is once it’s time to contend and spend on player payroll, but for now it seems like an ideal fit between club and exec in light of the recent experiences on both sides.

Now for the temperature check coming off a thrilling and needed ninth-inning comeback win in Pittsburgh:

• Record: 15-13, fourth place in NL Central, 3.0 games out of first place, 1/2 game out of third and final wild card spot

• Run differential: Minus-13, 21st in MLB

• Draft lottery position: 17th (0.44% chance at top overall pick)

• Strength of schedule: .478 opponents’ average winning percentage, 28th in MLB

• Remaining strength of schedule: .531 opponents’ average winning percentage, first in MLB

Now let’s talk it out.

Walker’s take

Since Jordan Walker’s last home run on April 13, he’s slashing a grim .190/.306/.238 with a K% of 38.8 and a chase rate of 34.8%. Overall, that’s a disappointing step back for Walker after his magma-hot start to the season. It’s not cause for panic by virtue of the sample size, but it’s also not nothing.

In light of the above, any cause for encouragement is welcome, and Walker gave us just that with a single take on Monday night in Pittsburgh. In that top of the ninth, when the Cardinals’ bats went from having been fully suffocated by a parade of Pirates relievers to putting four runs on the board, Walker came up with the score tied 2-2 (thanks to JJ Wetherholt’s homecoming homer) and runners on first and second with one out. Confronting him was veteran right-hander Dennis Santana.

Santana started him off with three straight sinkers inside. Walker yanked the first just foul -- inches from being extra bases down the line. The second pitch was further inside at the knees, and Walker took it for ball one. After an inside-move pickoff attempt on pinch-runner Victor Scott II at second base, Santana threw his third sinker, and Walker chopped it foul. That put Walker in a 1-2 putaway count, and with Santana on the mound that meant sliders were incoming.

Walker has of course been bedeviled by same-handed sliders away for much of his career, and Santana rationally attempted to exploit that weakness. Following Walker’s pro forma two-strike timeout, Pirates catcher Henry Davis set up middle-middle, but then dropped to a low and outside target. Santana indeed delivered a slider, one that appeared to leave his hand aimed at the inside corner. Fifty-four-ish feet and almost three feet of drop later, it landed low and away as intended. Walker didn’t flinch and evened the count at 2-2.

Davis again set up middle-middle and waited an instant longer this time to drop his mitt to low and outside. This slider had almost an identical shape as the prior one -- a bit of glove-side movement and a whole lot of drop -- with just a tad more ride. It was also, though, in a more tantalizing location. PNC Park has a an excellent center-field camera angle -- all MLB parks should have such angles -- and it gives you an idea of how how alluring this pitch must have looked to Walker as it neared the plate:

Walker buckled and dropped the bat-head just a bit, but he picked up the spin in time and didn’t offer even though the slider wound up in prime “chase and whiff” territory:

Since joining the Pirates prior to the 2024 season, Santana has a 48.1% chase rate on his slider when it’s thrown to a right-handed batter in two-strike counts. Walker, though, somehow resisted what had to be an immense temptation to offer at it. I don’t think I’m indulging in overstatement when I say that the 2024 and 2025 versions of Jordan Walker absolutely swing and miss at that pitch.

Having seen Walker spit on back-to-back well executed sliders, Santana went back to the sinker for the sixth and final pitch of the plate appearance. It was far inside, and Walker easily took it to draw the walk and force Scott and Alec Burleson into scoring position just ahead of José Fermín’s clutch go-ahead double. During this aforementioned homer-less stretch for Walker, he’s now drawn a walk in 12.2% of his PAs. In terms of skills growth on display, this walk may be his most impressive.

There are of course still concerns about Walker at the plate right now -- he may not be blocking off his front leg on contact as effectively as he had been -- but if there’s such a thing as one pitch that crystallizes the growth of a hitter, then it may be that 2-2 slider on Monday night. I don’t think he’s the hitter who homered eight times in his first 16 games, but I also don’t think he’s the hitter who hasn’t homered since. You can live in that middle ground.

xwOBA thoughts

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• Record: 14-9, third place in NL Central, 1 1/2 games out of first place, in third wild card position

• Run differential: Minus-11, 18th in MLB

• Strength of schedule: .481 opponents’ average winning percentage, 25th in MLB

• Remaining strength of schedule: .534 opponents’ average winning percentage, second in MLB

Now let’s talk it out.

Walker’s first checkpoint

Not so long ago, Jordan Walker led the majors in homers. Over the next seven games, however, he struggled. Since his last home run on April 13, Walker has slashed .207/.281/.276 with a 40.6 K%, a 23.4% whiff rate, and an xwOBA of .214. Those are bad numbers. Do they concern me? Not really, mostly because it’s a minuscule sample and even the best hitters go through feeble stretches that are longer than this one. It’s information in a limited dose and nothing more. Yet.

What I do find interesting is how pitchers have attacked Walker during this cold snap. From Opening Day through April 13, Walker faced hard stuff -- fastballs and sinkers -- almost half the time, 49.2% of the time to be precise. Since he hit his 10th home run of 2026, he’s faced hard stuff just 30.6% of the time. Sure, some of that difference may be repertoire-driven based on the pitchers he’s faced, but that certainly doesn’t explain all of it. To fill the gap, opposing pitchers since April 14 have fed him modestly more offspeed stuff and a lot more breaking stuff. They’re treating him differently.

At the same time, you can see a “low and away” drift to how pitchers are locating against Walker lately. Here’s Walker’s pitch location chart from March 26 through April 13:

And here it is since April 14:

This is not an especially drastic difference, but you can make it a subtle tendency to go right at Walker’s weakness, which is offering at pitches located low and outside the zone. The big thing, though, is how many fewer fastballs he’s seen over the last week-plus. That’s of course a sign of respect, and it’s also an adjustment. It’s now on Walker to adjust to those adjustments. This is why I like the idea of giving Walker that two-day reset thanks to his not being in Oli Marmol’s getaway day lineup on Wednesday followed by Thursday’s off day. According to Walker’s own words, he struggles to stay out of his head when it comes to his fine-tuned swing and his efforts to keep those old bad habits from sneaking back in. This upcoming stretch, after pitchers confronted him quite differently and after his brief respite, will be an interesting one for Walker.

Wetherholt’s walks

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Let’s start with some questions about the catcher situation.

Ken writes:

It seems obvious what the Cardinals have in Pedro Pages: a solid defensive catcher …

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Mark N writes:

What to do about LF?

Church seems hugely overmatched at the plate while playing good defense. While wins may be less important in 2026, being hapless at the plat…

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You know how this goes. To contribute, you may reply to this email…

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For me, the game was an intriguing one even before the first pitch was thrown, and that was because of Oli Marmol’s lineup:

1. JJ Wetherholt, 2B

2. Iván Herrera, DH

3. Alec Burleson, 1B

4. Masyn Winn, SS

5. Nolan Gorman, 3B

6. Jordan Walker, RF

7. Nathan Church, LF

8. Pedro Pagés, C

9. Victor Scott II, CF

As I’ve declared before, I’m partial to lineups that alternate lefties and righties as much as possible in this, the era of the three-batter minimum for relievers. The above goes lefty to righty from top to bottom, with the only lane for a lefty specialist coming at nine to one when the lineup flips.

The most discussion-worthy wrinkle is Winn as the cleanup hitter. He does have a bit of thump, as he tallied 15 homers as a second-year rookie in 2024, and there’s hope for improvement now that he’s had his knee surgically repaired. Let it be noted that Winn on Thursday had a 104-mph double in the game-turning bottom of the sixth and in the eighth lined out on a batted ball that had an expected batting average of .650. On the day, Winn’s average exit velocity was 93.4 mph.

No, I’m not declaring him to be a central-casting cleanup hitter based on a single game; I’m merely saying that he acquitted himself just fine there in the opener. The real point of putting him there was to allow Herrera to bat second while maintaining the lefty-righty stagger, and that’s the best spot for a team’s best hitter, which Herrera probably is (although Burleson may eventually have something to say about this). The hope is that Walker at some point is able to rise to that cleanup role and give the four spot more power than Winn has while, again, preserving the lefty-righty nature of the lineup. It’s of course tempting to want Gorman in Winn’s spot, but I don’t like having your three-four hitters vulnerable to being platoon-disadvantaged by a reliever in crucial middle or late innings. With all this said, there will probably quite a bit of fluidity to Marmol’s lineups, at least for the initial weeks of the season.

As for the game itself, the early headline was Wetherholt’s first big-league home run, which came in his second big-league plate appearance:

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You know all the reasons that spring outputs are not especially meaningful – the sample size, the quality of competition, the fact that players are often working on mechanical and repertoire changes to the detriment of in-game performance, and the fact that players know the games don’t count, among other reasons. For those very reasons, I’m obviously not prepared to say Jordan Walker has bottomed out or that he’s plainly un-fixable or that he’ll never find anything approaching his expected level of performance. “He’s 23,” will be the refrain here until such time as he’s not 23.

This isn’t to say I’m optimistic about him – I’m not especially, while still dreaming on his elite exit velocities and bat speed – but that has little to do with Grapefruit League performance. He has major issues at making contact, recognizing spin, and elevating the ball. One of those would be hard enough to solve, but having all three of those deficits at once? Fixing all that is a titan’s burden for Walker and the staff tasked with developing him. Let’s also note that, yes, his spring results have been grim. Going into Friday’s tilt against the Mets, Walker had a slash line of .162/.205/.162 in 40 Grapefruit League plate appearances with a K% of 38.5 and an xwOBA of .185. He’s also got an average launch angle of -4 degrees against right-handed pitching and an overall ground-ball rate of 68.2%. That’s quite ugly, and at one point his performance prompted the club to pull him from the lineup for multiple days in the hitting lab.

These are additional data points, even if they’re not nearly as meaningful as those we get from regular-season play. Taken as a whole, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now. Do the Cardinals commit to steady and season-long playing time for him at the highest level even if he continues looking utterly adrift at the plate? Or do they at some point burn that final option year of Walker’s (thus undermining his future trade value, should it come to that), and hope that he finds his legs in Memphis or even a lower rung?

It’s not productive to autopsy why this has happened given the front-office turnover and that the past is the past. No doubt, his premature promotion in 2023, in which he was skipped past Triple-A at the age of 20 based on a couple of weeks of a high but somewhat empty batting average in spring training, played a role. Walker has also been somewhat reluctant to embrace the changes being pushed on him by the organization, although that no longer seems to be the case.

All of that isn’t really the point of our present discussion, as implied by the headline. This is about a question that, while grim to contemplate, seems increasingly plausible in its assumptions: What if Jordan Walker doesn’t pan out?

The Cardinals have infamously struggled to identify and develop young thumpers in the outfield in recent years, and Walker’s difficulties threaten to perpetuate that trend. That said, this isn’t the NBA, in wwhich one high pick’s failure to meet expectations can set a club back for years. This is baseball, in which any one player’s contributions are structurally limited – a mere four or five trips to the plate in a given game, one start on the mound every five days or so, an inning at time out of the bullpen maybe three times a week. Yes, there’s much riding on Walker’s development, but there’s less riding on it in the context of what baseball is, which is a sport that blunts the ability of any single player to determine the outcome of a game or a season. You know this, of course, but it’s easy for multi-sport consumers (like me, for instance) to apply faultily our basketball or football mindsets to this game.

So that’s good. What’s also good is that the Cardinals have multiple places to turn in the event that Walker isn’t able to make the necessary improvements. There’s a related discussion about whether young Victor Scott II can improve his batted-ball outcomes – via either hitting the ball harder or, in light of his tremendous speed, putting it on the ground more often – and be a long-term solution in center. His tremendous defensive value certainly lowers his offensive bar, but Scott needs to improve his on-base skills significantly. As such, it’s possible the Cardinals will need to find not one but two outfielders – three in the event that the convalescing Lars Nootbaar is traded at some point this season. So keep that in mind as we run down the possibilities to come.

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Eric writes:

Borrowing from my comment on the post about Marmol’s extension, how would define success for 2026 season? Marmol’s definition of success for 2026? Bloom’s definition of success for 2026 (I believe Bloom is on the right track myself)?

As you can probably …

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