April 28, 2026: The pitch Jordan Walker took and why it mattered; xwOBA, Pedro Pagés, and Nathan Church; the coming six-man rotation
Let's talk Cards coming off a thriller of a win on Monday night
In case you missed the latest round of palace intrigue in Boston, the Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora and a large swath of his coaching staff in response to a first month of the season that was well shy of expectations. Laying aside the merits of parting ways with Cora and his lieutenants, it seemed to be poorly handled by lead decision-maker Craig Breslow, and the decision was by all accounts not a popular one in the clubhouse. From ESPN:
“Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said Monday he’s open to feedback about his communication style, which drew criticism a day earlier after the team’s surprise firing of manager Alex Cora and five members of his coaching staff.
“Veteran shortstop Trevor Story called Breslow’s explanation of Cora’s firing when Breslow met with the team Sunday morning not “satisfactory.” Reliever Garrett Whitlock noted that Breslow didn’t give players the chance to ask questions during that meeting.”
This is just the latest example of dysfunction going back for the better part of a decade, roughly coincident with John Henry’s devolution from one of the best owners in Major League Baseball to one of the worst. As Joon Lee summarized by anecdote:
“Multiple executives and former Red Sox employees described the organization as a high-pressure environment with diminishing internal support, particularly over the last five years. Current front office staffers noted the job listings posted by the Washington Nationals, now led by former Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni. Washington’s job posting this winter emphasized joy, humility, integrity and competitiveness – values that read less like corporate boilerplate than a corrective to the environment Toboni experienced in Boston, according to people familiar with his thinking.”
I’m talking about the Red Sox only to make the point that I’m happy for Chaim Bloom on a personal level that he’s no longer subjected to this kind of serialized nonsense. In frank terms, he was done dirty by Boston, and one has to suspect he appreciates the simple normality in place in St. Louis right now. From the sweeping expansion of front office and coaching staff to all the cash included in off-season trades in order to improve the returns, he’s had the support of ownership during a time of uncertain revenues. It remains to be seen what the support level is once it’s time to contend and spend on player payroll, but for now it seems like an ideal fit between club and exec in light of the recent experiences on both sides.
Now for the temperature check coming off a thrilling and needed ninth-inning comeback win in Pittsburgh:
Record: 15-13, fourth place in NL Central, 3.0 games out of first place, 1/2 game out of third and final wild card spot
Run differential: Minus-13, 21st in MLB
Draft lottery position: 17th (0.44% chance at top overall pick)
Strength of schedule: .478 opponents’ average winning percentage, 28th in MLB
Remaining strength of schedule: .531 opponents’ average winning percentage, first in MLB
Now let’s talk it out.
Walker’s take
Since Jordan Walker’s last home run on April 13, he’s slashing a grim .190/.306/.238 with a K% of 38.8 and a chase rate of 34.8%. Overall, that’s a disappointing step back for Walker after his magma-hot start to the season. It’s not cause for panic by virtue of the sample size, but it’s also not nothing.
In light of the above, any cause for encouragement is welcome, and Walker gave us just that with a single take on Monday night in Pittsburgh. In that top of the ninth, when the Cardinals’ bats went from having been fully suffocated by a parade of Pirates relievers to putting four runs on the board, Walker came up with the score tied 2-2 (thanks to JJ Wetherholt’s homecoming homer) and runners on first and second with one out. Confronting him was veteran right-hander Dennis Santana.
Santana started him off with three straight sinkers inside. Walker yanked the first just foul -- inches from being extra bases down the line. The second pitch was further inside at the knees, and Walker took it for ball one. After an inside-move pickoff attempt on pinch-runner Victor Scott II at second base, Santana threw his third sinker, and Walker chopped it foul. That put Walker in a 1-2 putaway count, and with Santana on the mound that meant sliders were incoming.
Walker has of course been bedeviled by same-handed sliders away for much of his career, and Santana rationally attempted to exploit that weakness. Following Walker’s pro forma two-strike timeout, Pirates catcher Henry Davis set up middle-middle, but then dropped to a low and outside target. Santana indeed delivered a slider, one that appeared to leave his hand aimed at the inside corner. Fifty-four-ish feet and almost three feet of drop later, it landed low and away as intended. Walker didn’t flinch and evened the count at 2-2.
Davis again set up middle-middle and waited an instant longer this time to drop his mitt to low and outside. This slider had almost an identical shape as the prior one -- a bit of glove-side movement and a whole lot of drop -- with just a tad more ride. It was also, though, in a more tantalizing location. PNC Park has a an excellent center-field camera angle -- all MLB parks should have such angles -- and it gives you an idea of how how alluring this pitch must have looked to Walker as it neared the plate:
Walker buckled and dropped the bat-head just a bit, but he picked up the spin in time and didn’t offer even though the slider wound up in prime “chase and whiff” territory:
Since joining the Pirates prior to the 2024 season, Santana has a 48.1% chase rate on his slider when it’s thrown to a right-handed batter in two-strike counts. Walker, though, somehow resisted what had to be an immense temptation to offer at it. I don’t think I’m indulging in overstatement when I say that the 2024 and 2025 versions of Jordan Walker absolutely swing and miss at that pitch.
Having seen Walker spit on back-to-back well executed sliders, Santana went back to the sinker for the sixth and final pitch of the plate appearance. It was far inside, and Walker easily took it to draw the walk and force Scott and Alec Burleson into scoring position just ahead of José Fermín’s clutch go-ahead double. During this aforementioned homer-less stretch for Walker, he’s now drawn a walk in 12.2% of his PAs. In terms of skills growth on display, this walk may be his most impressive.
There are of course still concerns about Walker at the plate right now -- he may not be blocking off his front leg on contact as effectively as he had been -- but if there’s such a thing as one pitch that crystallizes the growth of a hitter, then it may be that 2-2 slider on Monday night. I don’t think he’s the hitter who homered eight times in his first 16 games, but I also don’t think he’s the hitter who hasn’t homered since. You can live in that middle ground.
