First there was the absurdist win in the series finale against the Reds. JJ Wetherholt’s two-out, medium-deep drive was about to settle into the glove of Dane Myers to seal a loss, both for the game and the series, but then things changed. Things changed again when the Cardinals very nearly squandered a large lead in the ninth by walking five batters and then seeing a Matt McLain 345-foot drive to right send Jordan Walker on an uncertain route with the game on the line again. Things worked out, somehow. Then came the tense back and forth with the Phillies on Friday night that felt, looked, and smelled like October baseball. Here are some highlights:
OK, it wasn’t precisely that, but it sort of came off as the baseball version of Hearns-Hagler round one as I listened to John Rooney’s excellent call of the game while driving back from watching Jacob Misiorowski just up the road.
Those emotional twists and turns, all packed tightly together in a span of two games and 36 hours or so, probably mean we should talk it out. Let’s do so, as the Cardinals find themselves 3 ½ games out of playoff position in the NL …
The pitching staff
The rotation is not in a stable position right now. That’s solely because of injury concerns that have cropped up over the last day and half or so. Andre Pallante is on the 15-day injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. The move was retroactive to Aug. 18, the day after Pallante’s most recent start. That’s a scary sounding diagnosis, but thus far the Cardinals seem not greatly concerned and expect him to miss just a couple of turns. Soon after, Hunter Dobbins, who replaced Dustin May in the rotation after the latter’s trade to Milwaukee, was lifted from his playoff-atmosphere start against the Phillies on Friday after 78 pitches because of right forearm tightness that he couldn’t shake. For now, it looks like a precautionary move, but we’ll have to see what further examination reveals and whether a second roster move is in order. Quinn Mathews slides easily into one of those vacancies, and presumably he’ll start during the ongoing series in Philly. Since Mathews last started for Memphis on Aug. 17, he may be rostered and announced as Saturday night’s starter for the Cardinals by the time I hit publish on this (update: he has been).
The Cardinals have a much-needed off day on Monday to conclude a stretch of 11 games in 10 days, so that gives them some time to figure out Dobbins’ status and plot their next rotation move, should one be necessary (update: Dobbins indeed went on the IL on Saturday). At the same time, Kyle Leahy – their ace based on performance for the last handful of weeks – is running headlong into workload concerns and limits in his first season as a big-league starter and will almost certainly see his usage ramped down soon. The hope is that Pallante is ready to rejoin the rotation by then (and perhaps Dobbins, too).
And if there’s another void to be filled even after Mathews is installed (let’s note Mathews doesn’t really project right now as someone who figures to work deep into games thanks to his propensity to run up high pitch counts)? There’s no obvious and ideal answer. Young lefty Brycen Mautz has been working in a relief role in Memphis since the second week of July, so perhaps he could piggyback Leahy during the latter’s starts. This roster doesn’t strike me as one capable of regular bullpen games from a fatigue and churn-spot standpoint, so that’s probably out. Cooper Hjerpe, who was placed on the 40-player roster this past offseason in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft? I suspect the Cardinals would prefer not to have him make his big-league debut during his comeback season from Tommy John surgery. That said, the 25-year-old former first-rounder has kept runs off the board across three starts in Memphis and has put up big strikeout numbers across four different rungs in 2026. Again, I’d be against a Hjerpe call-up because cautious prudence is always the default when it comes to young pitching, but desperation could hold sway. This is when the season-ending lat injury to Richard Fitts is so keenly felt.
Shall we conclude this discussion with a positive? I’ve noted in past installments that the strikeout rate of the Cardinals’ starting pitchers – a major shortcoming in recent years – has methodically improved as the current season has deepened. At this writing, the Cards’ rotation has a K%, or strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced (a much better indicator than the traditional K/9), of 23.2 since the break (this isn’t counting Dobbins’ Friday start, when he was plainly compromised). That ranks 10th in all of MLB over that span and ahead of such playoff probables as the Rays, Braves, White Sox, Red Sox, and Cubs. Since the Cardinals traded away May on Aug. 3, the Cardinal rotation has struck out 25.0% of opposing batters – fifth in MLB over that brief span. I’m not going to firmly declare that the strikeout problem is no longer such a problem, but signs are pointing in that direction.
The bullpen situation is just going to be difficult to project, and that’s even by the difficult-to-project standards of bullpenners. Luis Gastelum has looked much better of late thanks to some unspecified tweaks (Friday night’s second inning of work notwithstanding – although I wonder if the outcome may have been different if Nathan Church or even Everson Pereira had been in center instead of José Fermín). Over his last five appearances before Friday, he allowed one hit and no runs in 6 ⅓ innings and struck out 12 of the 21 batters he’d faced (versus only one walk). Even on Friday, he got two swinging strikeouts against the top of the Phillies order during his perfect ninth inning of work. I’d like to see Gastelum start working at higher leverage moving forward, even when reliever availability isn’t driving the decisions as it was on Friday. George Soriano hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence lately as he’s gotten into career-high innings territory. As for Ryne Stanek, he’s 35 and hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 FIP since 2022. Closer Riley O’Brien has also been better of late. Yes, he struggled badly with his command and control in the series finale against the Reds, but I’m inclined to attribute that to his having been forced to pitch for the fourth time in six days. Justin Bruihl has, frankly to my surprise, emerged as a bedrock. I’m less concerned about the left side since the addition of Caleb Ferguson and more worried about the right-handed setup corps. Gordon Graceffo makes me uneasy right now, and that’s long been the case with Ryan Fernandez.
There are limited opportunities for churn, but the Cardinals presently have just 38 players on the 40-player roster, and any feasible rotation plug-in is already on the 40. That means – high-level mathematics incoming – they can create two more internal options in the bullpen if they so choose. Will Cade Winquest and Hancel Rincon and their big strikeout numbers be rostered down the stretch in the name of bullpen turnover? It seems like a possibility.
