Cards Notebook: What to look for next from Liberatore, Noot's promising approach versus lefties, and Marmol's latest weird comment about bullpen usage

Let's dip into all manner of Cardinals matters while taking care not to mention the current standings

While enthralled by the ongoing mortal struggle over 2024 draft-lottery position, let’s deep into a handful of Cardinals matters …

Lars vs. lefties

It’s far too soon to say what kind of hitter Lars Nootbaar is, or is going to be, in platoon-disadvantaged situations. After all, we’re dealing with a sample size of just 183 plate appearances versus lefties across his MLB career to date. What does already stand out, however, is Nootbaar’s approach against same-side arms, and it’s an encouraging and sensible one. 

Nootbaar is of course a laudably patient hitter, and over the course of his brief career he’s leaned into that trait when facing a left-hander: 

• His overall swing percentage drops from 37.9% against right-handers to 36.5% against lefties. 

• His walks as a percentage of plate appearances increases from 13.4% against right-handers to 14.8% versus lefties. 

• His pitches seen per plate appearance rises ever so slightly from 3.99 against righties to 4.04 against left-handers. 

• When in three-ball counts, Nootbaar swings at the pitch 47.7% of the time against the opposite side but just 44.4% of the time against left-handers. 

• On the first pitch of a plate appearance, he swings 20.5% of the time against a right-hander and 19.1% of the time when facing a lefty. 

Noot’s career OBP is 21 points higher against lefties than it is against righties. I don’t expect that to hold up, in large measure because his OBP against lefties is being propped up by a batting average on balls in play that almost certainly isn’t sustainable. However, the more patient approach against left-handers is something to note as our sample gets larger, and it could be an excellent example of “controlling what you can control” in situations that are stacked against you. 

Predictably, Nootbaar’s quality of contact degrades against lefties, and his elevated chase rate against lefties suggests that, in spite of the overall bump in plate patience in such situations, he still gets fooled. That, too, is what you’d expect given the disadvantageous angles and visuals a left-handed hitter works with when facing a lefty arm. So instead he leans into his disciplined approach. Also of note is that over his career, lefties have confronted Nootbaar with a higher percentage of competitive pitches (i.e., pitches within 18 inches of the middle of the strike zone), so he’s probably been even more discerning than the numbers suggest. 

That Nootbaar is an established count-worker who also adds value in the field at a premium position and on the bases means he can be a lineup fixture even with the lack of thump against lefties. That, in turn, means more exposure to lefties, which could aid him in finding a higher level of batted-ball authority in such situations. We also know that he puts up strong batted-ball numbers against right-handers, so the bat speed and explosive strength are there. (I also have an untested theory that lefty hitters who throw right-handed, as Nootbaar does, are perhaps better equipped to overcome platoon disadvantages than those who bat and throw lefty – perhaps I’ll get around to testing this someday.) On top of all that, there’s a tactical edge to having a lefty bat who can be in the “vs. LHPs” lineup, in that it can complicate the opposing manager’s decision to flip to a right-handed reliever later in the game, particularly with the three-batter rule in place. 

Mostly, though, it’s encouraging that Nootbaar recognizes that his best current path to keeping his head above the water-line against left-handers is being ruthlessly selective. It’s also encouraging that he’s committed to that approach to such an extent.

 Libby levels up?