Draft lottery odds, a missed opportunity, Jordan Walker's progress, Noot's injuries, and a new nickname for a rookie

Just because the Cardinals are bad doesn't mean we can't talk about a bunch of stuff

Pressing matters abound. Onward, powered by contempt of the current standings …

Playing the lottery

Because I am a gentleman of prodigious moral principles, I am simply unable to pull for my team to lose, even in the throes of a squandered season. However, I am not ignorant of the consoling power of all these defeats, and that, of course, is about the team’s 2024 draft position. Thanks to this long run of relevance in the standings, the Cardinals have been saddled with low picks for years upon years. They haven’t picked in the top half of the first round since 2008. Not since 1998 have they picked in the top 10. Current scouting director Randy Flores has never overseen a pick higher than No. 18 during his eight drafts at the helm. 

That recent history brings us to the 2023 Cardinals and their current winning percentage of .433. If trends hold, they’ll wind up with the fifth-worst record in all of MLB. For almost all of the history of such things, that would mean the fifth-overall pick in next year’s draft without any further dramatics. Starting last year, however, all 18 non-playoff teams became part of an annual draft lottery to determine the order of selection for the top six picks (the remaining picks through No. 18 are determined by record). That means the Cardinals could wind up picking higher, and it also means they could see their pick number drop. Either outcome is significant not only because of the caliber of draftee available, but also because each team’s signing-bonus budget for a given draft is determined by where its picks fall.

The worst three teams share the highest odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, at 16.5% each (these odds are flattened to reduce “tanking” incentives, at least theoretically). Then the fourth-worst team checks in with a 13.2% chance of getting top pick. Next up is the fifth spot, presently occupied by our Birds. Tankathon lays out their current lottery odds: