Holding my fire

The time to call for massive changes to the Cardinals' front office and roster is coming, but it’s not here just yet. So let’s talk about what is here.

The time to call for massive changes to the front office and roster is coming, but it’s not here just yet. So let’s talk about what is here. 

Not just yet. Yes, it’s quite likely that the arc of 2024 season – when appraised in light of the fundamentally similar 2023 season – is going to lead this writer to demand upheavals up and down baseball operations and within the roster. However, we’re not there just yet. The margins are such that had the Cardinals been swept at home by the Brewers, I might be writing such fulminations right now. That’s not what happened, though, and as such I’m still writing and talking about this team as a fringe contender. The time for that other conversation will come soon enough, I suspect, but now is not that time. 

So speaking of the Cardinals’ gossamer-thin tethers to postseason contention, the present moment finds them 63-64 and five games behind the Braves for the third and final NL wild-card spot. They’re also behind the Mets and Giants in that particular queue. Average out the Cards’ postseason odds at FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus, and you get a figure of 3.6%. If confronted with such chances leading up to the trade deadline, I likely would’ve advocated for a sell-off, but that limb has been trimmed from the decision tree. Right now, something a bit north of a 3 in 100 chance to make the playoffs is sufficient to keep me focused on the possibility, even this barely legible one. 

In terms of the remaining schedule, here’s how the four teams of note compare, as measured by future opponents’ average winning percentage: