In praise of Masyn Winn; in denunciation of the back of the rotation

Let's visit both ends of the Cardinal continuum

As the Cardinals’ offense, vibes, and record all steadily improve, here’s what I’m chewing on … 

Masyn Winn is having a year

It hasn’t been an especially encouraging season, generally speaking, for the Cardinals’ younger core players and even a number of their higher-rung prospects. A pleasing exception, however, has been Masyn Winn. Going into Monday night’s series opener against the Orioles, Winn is slashing .281/.340/.383, which comes to an OPS+ of 109 (meaning his park-adjusted OPS is 9% better than the league average figure). That’s strong production, especially for a shortstop who adds value with the glove (more on that in a moment) and on the bases (seven steals in eight attempts, no GIDPs). 

Winn doesn’t flash much in the way of batted-ball authority, but he does other things that give him an offensive foundation upon which to keep building. In particular, Winn right now places in the 65th percentile of MLB hitters in expected batting average, and he’s in the 89th and 67th percentile in whiff rate and K%, respectively. While he doesn’t hit the ball hard relative to his peers, Winn is in the 84th percentile when it comes to achieving the desired range of launch angles off the bat. Winn’s offensive numbers in his debut (but not rookie) season of 2023 were roundly dismal. As I wrote before, though, there were encouraging signs beneath the surface, and now we’re perhaps seeing his skills grow. 

Winn’s fielding appears to be a more complicated matter. Aesthetically, he’s already elite at the six. He’s a quick-twitch auteur in the field, and Winn’s high-octane throwing arm has played a leading role in the abundance of double plays the club has been able to turn. Not surprisingly, he passes the eye test, even the informed eye test, and he looks like a defensive force, especially on plays to his left. 

When it comes to the advanced defensive metrics, however, it’s a mixed bag. Statcast puts him at -3 outs above average through a bit more than 300 defensive innings. Over at FanGraphs, their defensive runs above average metric puts him narrowly below the waterline at -0.5. On the positive side, we have defensive runs saved (DRS) by Sports Info Solutions, which plays a role in determining Gold Glove winners. DRS right now gives Winn a mark of 7 runs saved, which ties him with Bobby Witt Jr. of the cross-state Royals at the very top of the shortstop leaderboard for 2024 and ties him for sixth among all defenders at all positions. Even at this relatively late hour in the sprawl of human history, we can’t get defensive metrics to agree all the time in the holy name of analytical convenience. 

DRS tends to be my default choice, but I can’t entirely justify that preference. It’s probably one part force of habit. In any event, let’s choose the rosier path and note that Baseball-Reference, which uses DRS in its calculations and refers to DRS as “the most sophisticated public system available,” gives Winn a WAR of 1.7 this season. That puts him behind only the fallen Willson Contreras among 2024 Cardinals. It’s a bit daft to indulge in “on pace to” formulations this early in the season, but, well, here I go doing just such a thing. If Winn stays healthy, continues registering playing time at present rates, and keeps hitting, fielding, and running like he has been, then he’ll end 2024 with a WAR of 6.1. That’s All-Star stuff, and it’s All-Star stuff from a 22-year-old rookie. 

How rare would such a thing be? Quite rare indeed. In the integration era of MLB – i.e., since 1947 – just eight primary shortstops (those playing at least 75% of their games at the position) have put up a WAR of at least 6.0 at age 22 or younger. Peruse the list at Stathead, and you’ll find a Hall of Famer (Cal Ripken Jr.), an all-time great and a would-have-been HoFer under normal circumstances (A-Rod), two potential future HoFers (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Carlos Correa), one who was on a Hall-of-Fame track before a foot tumor and an admitted lack of conditioning hastened his decline (Jim Fregosi), and a pair of “Hall of Very Good” talents (Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Speier). To state the obvious, these are encouraging comparables. 

Admittedly, these endpoints are friendly toward Winn and his current pace. What happens if we adjust those to be a bit less accommodating? After moving the WAR bar down to 5.0 and increasing the age limit to 23, we get a ledger of 18 different shortstops and 25 individual seasons. Added to our population are the likes of Derek Jeter, Robin Yount, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Nomar Garciaparra. Outside of Wander Franco’s unique and repugnant situation, the downside of these comps is probably Denis Menke, who spent parts of 13 seasons in the majors from the early 60s to the early 70s. Even then, we’re talking about a player who put up a career WAR of 28 and earned a pair of All-Star selections. We should all have such worst-case outcomes. 

Moving forward, I’ll be interested to see whether Winn’s contact-driven approach continues to yield positive results, and I’ll especially be monitoring how his defensive stats track – whether they start saying the same things and whether those things are positive or negative. For now, we should appreciate that his first quarter of the season has been deeply encouraging and that he’s in line to justify some very encouraging comparisons going into 2025 and beyond. 

[Update: Naturally, I get ready to publish this just as Winn makes two errors in as many plays.] 

The holdovers are killing the rotation