It's time for some Nolan Arenado pessimism and some Andre Pallante optimism

Another exploration into the duality of your 2024 St. Louis Cardinals

Two things I’m thinking about after the Cardinals frustratingly split a four-game set with the Rockies (oh, those warning-track outs) … 

Nolan Arenado looks like he’s in decline

Given the prevailing mediocrity of the 2024 season to date, it’s not hard to find things over which we may rightly fret. Presently, I am fretting over Nolan Arenado. 

Thus far in his age-33 season, Arenado has a slash line of .252/.311/.370 (95 OPS+) with a homer every 39.7 at-bats. Over his first three seasons as a Cardinal, 2021-23, he slashed .271/.328/.495 (126 OPS+) with a home run every 19 at-bats. It’s easy enough to soft-pedal a decline in top-line numbers as being driven by misfortune in many instances, but that isn’t the case with Arenado. He’s bottomed out at an underlying level, and this isn’t just about the bat. He’s also, according to the best evidence we have, cratered in the field, too. 

Let’s take his offensive production first. For years, Arenado’s specialty has been pulling the ball in the air. That’s the ideal outcome for a hitter because it gives said hitter the best chance to do extra-base damage. Arenado, though, just isn’t hitting the ball hard enough to do aerial harm at his usual levels. While Arenado has never been best in class when it comes to batted-ball authority, his current depths are something new for him. Right now, he ranks in the bottom 8% of big-league hitters in average exit velocity. He’s in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 10th percentile in barrel rate. He’s 221st among 259 qualifying hitters in max exit velocity. In EV50, the merits of which were previously detailed in this space, he’s 234th out of 259.  

The leading consequence of such meek contact is that he’s not able to produce as he should on those pulled liners and flys. Via TruMedia, here’s a look at Arenado’s production on pulled batted balls that leave the bat at between 8 and 32 degrees (the ideal launch angle range for power production): 

The numbers on such balls are necessarily going to look impressive relative to other batted-ball outcomes, but keep the context in mind. As you can see, Arenado’s current results on such balls are at career-worst levels in terms of OPS, wOBA (what’s this?), home run frequency, and isolated power. The league as a whole this season has a wOBA of .843 on pulled balls between 8 and 32 degrees, and Arenado, with a .796 wOBA, is shy of the league standard for the first time in his career. That’s troubling for any player, let alone a corner defender who doesn’t do enough other things at the plate to withstand a loss of production on pulled air balls. There’s much to worry about here. 

On another level, fully committing to pull power is a common approach undertaken by hitters attempting to adapt to age-related skills decline. Arenado, however, has long been invested in that approach, which leaves him nowhere to turn in the face of what seems to be decreasing strength and a slowing bat. Speaking of which, he’s gone from an expected slugging of .507 against fastballs last season to a figure of .376 this year. Against pitches with a velo of 95 mph or greater, Arenado last season slugged .463 with a 15.6 K%. This year, he’s slugging .366 against hard stuff and striking out 25.0% of the time.

Then there’s his defense. Arenado last season got off to an uncharacteristically poor start in the field but was able to reverse course after he altered his preparatory routines. That raised hopes that we’d get something close to vintage Arenado in the field for all of 2024. That hasn’t come close to happening. Public-facing defensive metrics are imperfect, but when they’re all saying the same thing it’s time to listen to them. Here’s what they’re saying about Arenado this season: 

• Statcast puts him at -2 outs above average, which places Arenado in the 19th percentile of defenders. 

• Defensive Runs Saved is even more unsparing. Per DRS, Arenado’s current figure of -7 puts him 129th out of 130 fielders to appear at third base this season. 

• Ultimate Zone Rating assigns Arenado a negative figure of -0.9 for the season thus far. 

That plus below-average work at the plate makes Arenado sub-replacement level, at least thus far. It’s too soon to declare that Arenado is inexorably in decline, but the pattern since his brilliance of 2022 strongly suggests as much. A related concern is that Arenado is still owed almost $75 million through 2027. Players on big contracts tend to be lineup regulars beyond the point of reason, and that’s the fear here. 

Maybe he flips this particular script at some point, or maybe he’s playing through some level of physical malady that’s manifesting itself in these ways. If, however, this is just simple, garden-variety decline then this is a real worry for the Cardinals on a much wider scale than just the 2024 season. 

Andre Pallante, rotation savior?