Let's talk about Luken Baker so we don't have to talk about other things

Baker has arrived in St. Louis, and he has the potential to help

In an effort to ignore the grim remainder of the recently concluded series in Pittsburgh, let’s talk about slugger Luken Baker. 

Baker was given the call prior to the series finale against the Pirates, and as a bonus he took the 40-man and active roster spots of third catcher Tres Barrera (the decision to keep Barrera rostered during the recent 19-games-in-19-days stretch remains a rich source of frustration). Mostly, though, this is about Baker’s promise and potential to help the flagging offense in St. Louis. 

At the outset, let me say I don’t want to overstate things when it comes to Baker’s outlook. Baker is a large-bodied, 26-year-old, righty-righty first baseman who was repeating the Triple-A level this season. Coming into 2023, MLB.com didn’t even rank him among the Cardinals’ top-30 prospects, and, as implied above, he wasn’t even on the 40-man. For those reasons, it would be daft of me to suggest he’s anything like a future star. All that said, Baker showed real growth this season prior to his call-up, and there is indeed cause to believe he can be a useful piece in the majors – perhaps even the latest purveyor of Cardinals devil magic. 

Baker in Memphis this season slashed .313/.434/.641 with 18 home runs in 54 games and 42 unintentional walks against 53 strikeouts. Compare that to last season in his first extended look at Triple-A, when he batted .228/.289/.394 with 21 homers in 124 games and 37 unintentional walks versus 129 strikeouts. What’s encouraging straightaway is that Baker is backing up the numbers with strong quality-of-contact indicators. Moreover, Baker deserved a more positive fate in Memphis last season, as his batted-ball metrics suggested he should have fared far better than his 2022 slash line suggests. 

The real growth, however, has occurred in the vital arena of plate discipline. This season versus 2022, Baker has reduced his strikeouts as a percentage of plate appearances from 25.1% to 21.8%, and most impressively he’s drastically upped his walks as a percentage of plate appearances from 7.2% to 17.3%. He’s also achieved these gains despite being pitched in the zone at a rate that’s almost identical to what he saw in 2022. That’s a huge leap forward in terms of selectivity, and it’s driving Baker’s success. 

Now here’s a look at Baker’s swing decisions a season ago versus this year at the Triple-A level. As you’re about to see, the difference is stark.