Mailbag Part 1: Uniforms, the Mikolas Question, breakfast foods as Cardinal players, Marmol's status, premature trade-deadline thoughts, and more

Responses to your first batch of mailbag submissions may be found herein

Once again, you dear readers have answered the call for mailbag questions with zeal and abundance. That means I’ll be splitting up my responses into two episodes. Here’s the first one.

Tim writes:

Just looked at a pic of Gibson pitching is his prime.. should we get the piping back on the pants? Those uniforms were gorgeous.

Yes, fully endorsed. I enjoy the red piping, and of course it should be paired with exposed, striped stirrups – stirrups, not socks. By the way, the “Dressed to the Nines” online exhibit put on by the Hall of Fame is a great time-waster.

Dennis writes:

Time to run the Memphis shuttle with our relief pitching. If we win half of the extra inning games we look different.

Not long after Dennis submitted this question, the shuttle launched. Chris Roycroft, who’s been struggling a bit with his pitch shapes thus far, is back in Memphis, and Roddery Muñoz, whom the Cardinals claimed off waivers from the Marlins back in early November, is up. As well, Kyle Leahy is going to take on more of a leverage role moving forward. I’m particularly intrigued by Muñoz and the way his stuff is playing up in a short-burst relief role. He may be a find.

Yes, let us note and appreciate that the Cardinals at this writing are on pace to 0-46 in extra-inning games this season (and 0-35 in one-run games).

Now let’s lump our pair of Miles Mikolas questions together.

Chad writes:

How long do you think the Cardinals will stick with Mikolas? One could easily say, “it’s early, small sample size for 2025.” But if you look at the track record over the last 2 years, Mikolas hasn’t been good, even average, for a very long time. Even the usually under appreciated argument of providing innings eating value just doesn’t hold water anymore. He’s just simply not a good pitcher anymore and seems overmatched.

Cardinal70 writes:

What's the reasonable best case scenario for how Miles Mikolas's season goes?

These questions were posed before Mikolas’ most recent start against the Phillies, in which he allowed three runs – two of which came after a missed ball-strike call by the plate ump that should’ve ended the inning – in five innings and notched his best strikeout and swing-and-miss performance of the young season. As well, he seems committed, for now at least, to trying to get chases outside the zone in two-strike counts. His leading merit at age 36 and with solidly below-average stuff is taking regular turns and clocking innings. He permits a lot of contact but has enough offerings to at least theoretically keep hitters unbalanced, which means there’s going to continue to be a lot of variance in his start-to-start performances. He can be solid to good on occasion, but he can also get keel-hauled as he did in Boston not so long ago. That probably gives him more rope than he merits at this stage on grounds of, “Well, let’s give him one more turn and see what he does.”

All of this is why I think he’s got at least a handful of starts left before any change is made, and that assumes he generally struggles over those starts. Even then, is it Michael McGreevy who would replace him, or would it be Steven Matz, who’s about to get an audition when the Cardinals pivot to a six-man rotation across a crowded stretch of schedule? I’d say we’re a month or so from the possibility of a Mikolas-less rotation.

The other part of this is how the young starters are faring in the upper rungs of the minors. While McGreevy has hardly dominated, he’s been good enough through three starts for Memphis (6 R in 14 IP, 11 SO, 3 BB) and hasn’t moved off of “ready for St. Louis when there’s room” status. Quinn Mathews, in contrast, has looked terrible thus far at Triple-A. You can of course easily dismiss his current ERA of 6.10 because it’s been just three starts, but it’s less easy to overlook that he’s walked 15 batters in 10 ⅓ innings. In his most recent start, he spotted just 34 of 76 pitches for strikes. Down at Double-A, Tekoah Roby has been dominant to start 2025 and may soon be pressing for a promotion to Memphis. This is a long way of saying that McGreevy remains ready for a rotation spot in St. Louis, but he’s the only one at the moment.

At some point, we’re going to get some attrition in the rotation, which will presumably mean a young arm or two will trickle in regardless of performance by the incumbent veterans. So there’s that, I guess.

As for a best-case Mikolas scenario, I’d say something more in line with last year’s FIP, slightly discounted for another year of aging, and a qualifying number of innings. Let’s go with an ERA in mid-4.00s, an ERA+ in the low 90s, and 175 innings or so. Not exactly inspiring, but it’s adequacy. Of course, I don’t expect that to be the outcome. He’ll be worse than that on a rate basis, I believe.

Keith writes:

I’m baffled by the roster construction. I’m going to stay away from the pitching staff. 1)Why don’t we have a back up shortstop, especially considering the way Winn is struggling? 2) why do we have two, defense first, fast, left-handed hitting centerfielders of which one of them cannot hit? 3) when Herrera is healthy, we really have three catchers. I do like Contreras but why on earth do we have a guy like him making the kind of money he’s making, playing a new position (1B) when we could be playing baker or Burleson at first base or platoon them? 4) Why do we have so many 2nd basemen on the 40 man and 26 man (Gorman, Donovan, Saggesse, Fermin) 5) if Arenado, Gray, and Contreras or agreeable to trades, would they be gone already? Sorry, I know that’s more than one question!

I, too, thought the decision to roster Michael Siani and Victor Scott II was a strange one. Siani, defensive brilliance notwithstanding, should be in Triple-A. Jose Barrero should’ve been active-rostered. He’s a legit defensive shortstop, and he can also play center. That’s in addition to having some offensive upside. I thought the lack of shortstop depth on the active roster was a strange decision given Masyn Winn’s past back issues and the wrist discomfort he dealt with late in spring training. More generally, if you’re going to carry 13 pitchers, then you can’t punt a bench spot on a late-inning defensive replacement. A four-player bench means each reserve needs to be more than just a fly-catcher you put in when you have a lead in the eighth or whatever.

As for Contreras, maybe you can argue he should be the perma-DH (although I think he’s been just fine defensively thus far), but at the same time I think some deference to his wishes is in order. That’s especially the case considering he, frankly speaking, has eaten some shit since signing with the Cardinals. He’s dealt with a public demotion from the catcher position in his first season, he worked assiduously on his game-calling and pitch-framing (possibly to the detriment of his health with the latter), and then he agreed to move off of catcher to make room for the young ones coming up through the system. He’s earned a level of consideration, and if he wants to play first, let him. I have my doubts that Alec Burleson or Luken Baker would be better defensively than Contreras at the position.

Finally, yes, I think both Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray would be playing elsewhere had they agreed to be traded/shopped. Well, we know Arenado would be in Houston had he approved that swap, and Gray’s market would be a healthy one given his modest contract and the fact that struck out more than 30% of opposing hitters last year.

Frank writes:

When can we expect your next podcast with Cistulli?

I certainly expect the Blue Jays will fire his ass after this season, so maybe over the winter?

Lee writes:

The season is early--especially on the minor league side. Still, what are your three positives and negatives so far? I'll give you mine: Major league side Positives 1. Victor Scott's overall improvement 2. Jordan Walker's overall improvement (offense has work to do but overall I have liked his approach) 3. Ivan Herrera's offense (too bad he is going to be on the shelf for a while) Negatives 1. Willson Contreras's futility at the plate. What gives? 2. Can the starting pitching hold up enough to be remotely competitive? 3. Can Herrera be the long term answer behind the plate? His injury seems only to further cloud the future backstop position along with throwing issues. Minor league side (top 2) Positives: 1. Chase Davis. It seems like the changes he made last year are legit. The teams needs OFs. Hooray! 2. Jimmy Crooks seems to be adjusting to AAA just fine. Is he the backstop of the future? Negatves: 1. Quinn Mathews: Is he healthy? 2 (tie) Not healthy again are Cooper Hjerpe and Tink Hence. They are giving me Alex Reyes vibes at this point.

MLB positives:

1. Victor Scott II’s defensive growth in center and his pitch-recognition skills at the plate.

2. Iván Herrera’s hitting before going on the IL.

3. Andre Pallante.

MLB negatives:

1. Miles Mikolas.

2. Jordan Walker’s GB%.

3. Injuries/Nolan Gorman’s playing time.

MiLB positives:

1. Chase Davis.

2. Leonardo Bernal.

3. Andre Granillo.

MiLB negatives:

1. Quinn Mathews.

2. Gordon Graceffo.

3. Tink Hence’s ongoing injury woes.

Ivan writes:

If these popular breakfast items were current or former Cards, who would they be? -breakfast sausage -toast -cereal -coffee -bacon -eggs -oatmeal -yogurt -bagels -English muffins

Good questions deserve bad answers.

Breakfast sausage: Luken Baker

Toast: Ken Reitz

Cereal: Steve Kline

Coffee: Vinegar Bend Mizell

Bacon: Jim Lindeman

Eggs: Steve Lake

Oatmeal: Ken Hill

Yogurt: Terry Pendleton

Bagels: Eli Marrero

English muffins: Lance Lynn

JC writes:

Given that we’ve seen both sides of the sweep coin already thus far this season, I feel it’s fair to say that a variety of season outcomes are still on the table especially considering what seems to be a viable offense. When considering the spectrum of outcomes, how good/bad would they need to be around deadline time to seriously consider a change of course from the “reset” we’ve been nursed into experiencing? Essentially, how successful would the season need to be come mid-July to considering adding at the deadline and conversely how terrible would they need to perform to warrant a more drastic sell off outside of the anticipated walk-year guys? A bit verbose I apologize but thank you!

It’s hard to put a number on it. Maybe within five games of the division lead and maybe a bit closer than that in what figures to be a crowded wild-card fray? I think the Arenado situation may be different, in that they may explore a deal for him even if they’re in range of playoff position. More specifically, I’m wondering if Alec Bohm’s horrid start to the season has put the Phillies in play as a potential destination. Third base still looks like a weak spot for the Yankees, as well.

I don’t get the sense that a deep sell-off is within the range of possibilities right now. I suppose I could see a trade to thin out the glut of catchers in the majors and the higher levels of the farm system, but that won’t be indicative of a teardown. If the season has gone south at the deadline, my guess is trade talks will be centered around Arenado, Ryan Helsley, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz, and maybe they circle back to Gray and Contreras for a second temperature reading on their no-trade clauses.

Kyle writes:

Are you buying Brendan Donovan’s strong start? He looks fantastic at the plate

I am, broadly speaking. I’d still like to see his walk rate get back up to rookie-year levels, but otherwise he’s shown improvement in his batted-ball quality while also running high contact rates. He’s in the 90th percentile among MLB hitters in xwOBA right now, which sort of tells the story of his season thus far and bodes well for him moving forward, at least within the limits of the current data sample.

Dad Discussions writes:

Is marmol automatically out at the end of the season? Or if he gets the team to a wild card spot, would that save him for a season? I ask because usually new regimes/front offices want to install their own guys as managers.

I wouldn’t say automatically, no. I think if the team makes the postseason, he’ll probably be back for the final year of that contract extension he signed in March of last year. If the season turns out to be a disappointment, and the young core talents don’t develop as hoped, then I’d imagine Chaim Bloom will take a serious look at bringing in a hand-picked replacement, provided the DeWitts are willing to eat the final year of Marmol’s contract.

OK, that’s it for round one. I’ll be back soon to answer the rest of the mailbag submissions.