Oli Marmol had a rough series against the Mets

Let's explore a pair of managerial mistakes by the Cardinals' skipper

I want to talk about two of Oli Marmol’s recent managerial decisions, each of which took place during the recent series against the Mets in Queens. I consider each to be a mistake, otherwise I probably wouldn’t be writing about it. The first is a bit of an ultimately inconsequential one, but it gets at a larger principle that’s more important than the moment itself. The second, greater one may have cost the Cardinals the series finale. 

Let’s take that lesser one first. It happened in the sixth inning of Friday’s series opener. With the Cards up 4-1, Nolan Gorman walked with two outs to load the bases. That brought up shortstop Brandon Crawford to face lefty Josh Walker. St. Louis at that instant had an 85.8% chance to win the game, which is hefty but not impregnable. Crawford, the 37-year-old backup to Masyn Winn who increasingly should not be anywhere near the roster, has shown little capacity to hit major-league pitching since signing with the Cardinals during spring training, and that’s particularly the case in a platoon-disadvantaged situation such as this one. This would’ve been a good spot for Iván Herrera to pinch hit, and carrying three catchers allows you to do such a thing. Yes, the Cardinals wanted Winn to have a second-straight day off, which is not something I’d be prioritizing if it means more Crawford in the field and lineup, but José Fermín is on the roster these days and has more than 1,000 defensive innings at shortstop in the minors. In any event, Crawford was not lifted, and he wound up striking out. 

There’s a three-run lead in place, but keep the line moving in that sacks-full situation and perhaps you don’t wind up using three of your best relievers in the later innings (this comes into play below). Herrera or even Winn gives you a much better chance of that than Crawford does. 

Curiously enough, the very next night Marmol had a different approach under similar circumstances. With two out and a runner on first in the seventh and a 6-4 lead, Marmol parried lefty Jake Diekman by pinch-hitting Herrera for Alec Burleson. Herrera struck out, but the outcome isn’t the point. I don’t want to pin this disconnect on “Marmol is deferential to veterans,” but it’s tempting. Marmol, to be fair, did recently drop the struggling Paul Goldschmidt in the batting order, but I wonder about this instance. The Cardinals odds of winning were a touch lower in this Saturday spot than they were on Friday (80.6%), but the odds of pushing across a run were more than three times as high when Crawford batted than they were when Herrera pinch hit on Saturday. Crawford’s also a pronounced liability in the field these days, so it’s not a matter of needing his glove to protect a lead. 

Given the modest stakes and the fact that the Cardinals went on to win Friday’s game, I’m probably making too much of this. It struck me, though, and it struck me all over again when Burleson got different treatment despite being a substantially better hitter than Crawford is. 

If that’s much ado about (next to) nothing, what follows is, in my mind, a much graver gaffe. Late in Sunday’s series finale, the Cardinals were closing in on a sweep. The Cardinals led 2-1 with two out in the bottom of the 11th and the automatic Met runner having advanced to third base. This gave the Cardinals an 84% chance of winning the game and earning their first sweep of 2024. A win also would’ve pushed them back above the .500 mark.