On Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola

The Cardinals reportedly have interest in the two free-agents-to-be, but which hurler is preferable in the larger picture of the coming rotation overhaul?

The leading subplot of the Cardinals’ offseason will be how and to what extent they upgrade the rotation, which was the main offender in the team’s surprising 2023 struggles. They need multiple upgrades, and specifically they need not one but two ace or ace-adjacent starters at the front end.

I will continue to bellow from my modest internet perch that Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Japanese right-hander who’s likely to be posted for MLB teams, should without question be the top priority for the Cardinals. However, Yamamoto’s youth and ace skillset mean he’s going to be targeted by clubs with more wherewithal and willingness to spend. If it comes to an auction, I expect the Cardinals to lose out. 

Regardless, our club will need targets in addition to or in lieu of Yamamoto, and the two leading ones on the free-agent front appear to be Aaron Nola of the Phillies and Sonny Gray of the Twins. Derrick Goold recently reported that the Cardinals plan to at least explore pursuing Nola and or Gray this coming offseason. 

Given that the Cardinals have multiple vacancies at the front of the rotation and John Mozeliak has said they intend to make multiple additions, there’s a case to be made for signing both. Really, though, I’d prefer the addition of one pitcher in the Gray/Nola class in addition to a starter I see as more of a true frontliner – Yamamoto, Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell fit this description for me. I’d also put Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga in the No. 2 starter category alongside Gray and Nola, but for now let’s focus on those latter two names on which there’s trustworthy local reporting.