Pondering the possibility of a Jordan Walker decision point

What if contention continues but so do his struggles?

The Cards go into the weekend series in Kansas City having won 10 of their last 11 and having barged back into serious contention in the NL Central. They’re 24-20 overall and only one game out in the division, and their current run differential of plus-31 is eighth-best in MLB. The even better news is what’s found within Clay Davenport’s third-order standings.

Third-order standings reflect a team’s deserved record by looking at underlying performance indicators and strength of opposition, and because of those inputs it does a better job of predicting future outcomes than a team’s actual record does. Therein lies the good news. According to third-order standings, the Cardinals have an earned record, rounded to the first decimal place, of 27.4-16.5. This ties them with the Tigers and puts them ahead of every other team in MLB except the Mets and Yankees (yes, they’re fractionally ahead of the Cubs and even the Dodgers). In part, this reflects the fact that the Cardinals are 18-10 outside of one-run and extra-inning games, both of which invite aberrant randomness into the results. The best evidence suggests this team is legitimately good and legitimately obligated to behave like a contender until further notice. This very welcome reversal of fortunes informs what I’m thinking about this week, and that’s Jordan Walker’s near-term future as a lineup fixture.

For as much laudable progress as Walker has made with his fielding, his bat has thus far failed to launch. At this writing, Walker in 2025 is slashing .184/.254/.248 with four extra-base hits in 36 games played. Yes, he hits the ball hard and has best-in-class bat speed, but he’s too often unable to get on plane with the pitch and find the barrel. Right now, he’s got a basement-level wOBA (what’s this?) of .232, and his xwOBA – or his expected level of production – of .259 isn’t much better.

The point of this isn’t to criticize Walker, who still doesn’t turn 23 years of age for another few days. Rather, it’s to ponder what his place is on a team that’s contending, at least with his current level of production. As we know, one of the purposes of this season is to provide “runway” for young hitters to persist through struggles and test their mettle at the highest level via consistent reps against the best pitchers in the world. The complicating factor is that the Cardinals, since slipping to a season-worst five games under .500 on May 2, have gone on that afore-noted heater and put a playoff berth or even an NL Central title back within the range of possibilities. This changes things, and decision-making must acknowledge those changes. Yes, the development and evaluation of the Cardinals’ younger talents is plainly important ahead of Chaim Bloom’s takeover after this season, but, really, it’s contention uber alles in any context when it comes to organizational priorities. Or at least it should be.