Reader mailbag: Brendan Donovan trade returns, the Arenado market, the 2026 rotation, highlight defensive plays, college football, Iván Herrera's future role, and more

Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly even correct and coherent

Your questions, my answers – all below in stunning, state-of-the-art HTML. Onward …

Bill writes:

Am I being unreasonable in wanting Bryan Woo in return for Brendan Donovan?

No, I don’t think that’s a realistic expectation. Woo’s going into his age-26 season, and he isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2029 season. Over the last two seasons, a span of 52 starts, he’s amassed a WAR of 6.6, an FIP of 3.44, and a K/BB ratio of 6.1. Those are ace-adjacent outputs. Woo’s been better than Donovan over the last two seasons, he’s younger, and he comes with an additional year of control. You’re not getting him for Donovan, even in light of Seattle’s surfeit of pitching.

Russ writes:

Dayn, do you think Congress will get involved in order to straighten out the College Football mess? IN other words, to straighten out the transfer portal, NILs, etc. Should they get involved? If not then who could straighten all this out?

I guess I could see a congress-critter who thinks this is a winning, red-meat-ish issue getting involved, but their priorities and time should obviously be elsewhere right now. I think in part it’s a “crisis” driven by public grousing from head coaches, current and former, who are all too venerated in this country. “Adapt or die” is the glib response to those coaches and administrators, but it’s also the proper one. If these leaders don’t have the will or capacity to handle this new era, then they’re easily replaced by those who do. I think as time passes, we’ll all get used to it and adjust our expectations accordingly. That’s to say, I’m not sure any action is needed from outside the most direct stakeholders.

Jibby writes:

If you could witness in-person any individual single-game performance/achievement (e.g., four homers, 20Ks, perfect game, etc.), regular season only, which performance/achievement would it be and why?

I’m highly tempted to say an inside-the-park grand slam by a slow-footed catcher …

… but I think that’s not quite in keeping with the spirit of the question. I think I’ll go with a four-homer game. In the broadest terms, I enjoy hitting more than pitching as a baseball consumer, and the current era of pitcher dominance/sky-scraping K rates have pushed me further in that direction. I’ll amend it slightly, though. Let me witness a four-homer game, but let the hitter come up one final time with a shot at five.

Now it’s time for hard-hittin’ Mark Whiten to take us to the break:

Jibby writes:

Excluding Cardinals players, what is your favorite single defensive play in baseball history?

I guess since you mandate no Cardinals players can be involved, I can’t cite this collaborative work of art from Yadier Molina and Javier Báez in the 2017 World Baseball Classic:

The throw is great, of course, but Báez’s point-and-no-look tag really makes it. Anyhow, with no Cardinal involved, I remain enthralled by Tadahito Iguchi’s throw from early in the 2006 season:

I’m usually partial to work performed in center or at short when it comes to highlight defensive plays, but the above play sticks with me.

Bob writes:

A question came up on Cardinal Territory; right now what would be the five man rotation. What is your answer today?

Good question, and indeed there are more candidates than spots. With the obvious caveat that forthcoming trades could bring in additional candidates, here’s my five-man as things stand presently:

1. Matthew Liberatore, LHP

2. Michael McGreevy, RHP

3. Dustin May, RHP

4. Richard Fitts, RHP

5. Kyle Leahy, RHP

I don’t really know what to do with Andre Pallante at this point, but assuming he’s not traded as part of a larger deal then I’d lean toward using his reverse-platoon and ground-ball tendencies in the bullpen. That’s especially the case if we’re light on lefties after the inevitable JoJo Romero trade (Pallante is of course a right-hander, but he’s better against the opposite side). I want to see what Bloom and company saw in Fitts as part of the Sonny Gray swap with Boston, so let’s give him some run. Ideally, Quinn Mathews forces a discussion early in the season and Liam Doyle makes it to St. Louis by September.

Jay writes:

In your opinion, which players are key to accelerating the rebuild and speeding up the timeline of DeWitt’s reinvestment into the payroll?

I think it starts with Jordan Walker. They need power in the lineup, and they need improved production from the outfield. If Walker can take the next step in his offensive development this season after devoting his offseason to prescribed swing changes, then it might change how they view 2027. A secondary consideration is probably to what extent JJ Wetherholt starts producing right away in the majors, and then comes the rotation. Does Doyle look like a rotation stalwart in time for 2027? What about Tanner Franklin? Is McGreevy a long-term presence? Is Leahy? Reduced to more general terms, are Walker and Wetherholt needle-movers in the lineup, and is there the foundation of a contending rotation in place?

Jonathan writes:

How are you thinking about the Dustin May signing? It confuses me. He’s talented, but assuming he discovers something, I still don’t think the length of the contract aligns with our competitive window. And he doesn’t have the health history to count on for innings. Like the guy, like that Chaim likely had insight into his potential, but don’t understand in our 2026 context.

This is one area in which trust comes into play, in that I’m trusting that Bloom, Rob Cerfolio, Matt Pierpoint, and other members of the new pitching brain trust see something in May. Maybe they like the chances of a velocity rebound to 2023 levels, when he averaged 97.3 mph with his four-seamer and almost that with his sinker. Look at his past stuff-modeling results, and you’ll also see he had excellent secondaries. As you note, the health history isn’t encouraging, as he’s already undergone major elbow surgery twice. Still, it’s a low-risk addition, in my opinion. $12 million is pennies for a free agent rotation presence. If May finds something close to his former stuff, then he’s easily moveable leading up to the deadline. If he levels up and the Cardinals are surprise contenders, then there’s the foundation for a longer agreement to be forged (2027 mutual option notwithstanding) – or maybe he winds up meriting the qualifying offer. If he tanks completely or gets hurt again, then there’s new rotation space for Pallante or Mathews or Tink Hence or whomever.

Keith writes:

What/who is the first domino to fall (trade)? Will the first trade set the wheels in motion for more deals?

Will the “market” for Arenado develop after Bregman signs?

It feels like there’s more buzz about Donovan than anyone else right now, so I’ll say he gets dealt next and before Christmas. I’ll stick with my original Mariners prediction.

I think so, yeah. Bregman is clearly the better player at this juncture, and his market will reflect that. That said, there’s probably a team or three with an eye for Arenado but without the appetite for the contract that Bregman will likely command. There’s probably also Eugenio Suárez’s market to consider, and Munetaka Murakami, who some teams see as a third baseman, has a Dec. 22 deadline to sign.

Speaking of all this, here’s a Thursday nugget from Ken Rosenthal:

“Arenado, meanwhile, is a possibility for the Los Angeles Angels, who are negotiating a buyout agreement with third baseman Anthony Rendon. No trade is imminent, however. The market for Arenado will become better defined after Bregman and Eugenio Suárez sign their free-agent deals.”

You’ll recall that the Angels were briefly bandied about last offseason as a possible Arenado destination. They don’t profile as contenders necessarily, but Arenado is an Orange County native who I believe still makes his offseason home in the area. Perhaps he’d approve such a deal given his and the Cardinals’ mutual desires to find a trade fit.

Ken writes:

If the Herrera catching experiment fails what do you think of making him the semi-regular left fielder to go along with DHing. He seems athletic enough to make the switch. Maybe by the trade deadline Noot will have some value to be moved. I was quite impressed with Crooks in his small sample size last season and could envision him as the catcher of the future.

I’d be inclined to make Herrera the permanent DH with, at most, occasional duty in left. The roster is such that Donovan, Arenado, and Willson Contreras will probably all need to be moved this winter in order to free up Herrera for a such a Yordan Alvarez-style deployment. If Lars Nootbaar isn’t traded this winter, we’ll need left open for him to re-establish some value post-heel surgeries. After that, Joshua Baez may be ready. DH probably helps Herrera stay healthy, and it lets him put full focus on being the heart-of-the-order hitter the Cardinals need him to be for the next several years.

OK, folks, thanks for this batch of questions, and I’ll be back soon – with a major trade to break down, one hopes.