Reader Mailbag, Part 1: Lots of trade deadline talk, Joshua Báez's near-term future, the third base situation, and more
Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly correct and coherent
As is typically the case, I’m breaking up my responses to your mailbag contributions into two posts. Post one starts … NOW!
Let’s begin with a trio of deadline-related questions.
Anthony writes:
Which Cardinals are likely to be traded at the deadline? Before the season, the list of likely trade candidates looked (to me) like May, Stanek, Romero, O’Brien, Nootbaar, Urias, and Pages. Because of our success to this point, I think that list has changed. I think we’ll keep Nootbaar and Pages as least through this season, and Urias isn’t going to be healthy enough to trade. What are your thoughts? Thanks!
Skip writes:
Last year, Craig Breslow overpaid for two months of Dustin May, giving up Tibbs and Ehrhard. Per the Boston Globe, at the time, members of the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Giants FOs were all surprised Breslow offered Tibbs, with one source saying the Dodgers FO “couldn’t agree fast enough”.
May is having a far better season this year than last year. Should last year’s return be the floor for moving him this year, or should we see it as an aberration? Would a Tibbs-level return for two months of 2026 May outweigh the benefits of an extension, or should Bloom seek more?
Kyle writes:
If Chaim decides he wants to trade Nootbaar and May, (in my opinion, the two players who would bother the fans the most if traded) what can he do to spin it to the fans without them getting mad at him? He seems to be doing all he can to brace folks ahead of time, but pulling the actual trigger is going to upset a lot of people. He seems to still have a near 100% approval rating, and I’m looking forward to how he handles the public-facing part of this challenge.
This is really the forward-looking story with the Cardinals right now. How does Chaim Bloom navigate the Aug. 3 trade deadline and balance the team’s contention/increasing popularity with the long-term focus that’s served the club so well since he took over?
As I write this, FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 49.9% chance of making the postseason, and in related matters they’re on pace for 90 wins. With the clubhouse and dugout vibes strong and fan enthusiasm on the uptick, there’s going to be a lot of pressure not to trade away a core piece like Dustin May or Lars Nootbaar. On the other side, May’s renaissance this season will make him a coveted target, especially given that the seller side of the deadline might be light this time around. Nootbaar looks wholly revived after recovering from surgery on both heels, and he’s still under team control for 2027.
The only thing I’m confident in saying is that Bloom isn’t going to swing big from the buy side leading up to the deadline. I don’t foresee any set of circumstances in which the Cardinals are in the mix for theoretical name targets like Tarik Skubal or Joe Ryan or Aroldis Chapman or Freddy Peralta or even Reid Detmers (who’s 26 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season). He’s just not going to dip that deeply into the rebuilt farm system for a team that’s arrived ahead of schedule and this season has been able to fill holes internally.
As for what will happen -- and this is all subject to change depending on the standings -- my guess at this point is that Nootbaar does get moved. I think there’s more “cover” for this one given that the team was in contention before he returned from the 60-day injured list on June 5. (That said, there’s no doubt Noot has improved this lineup.) As well, the scorching-hot Joshua Báez (more on him in a moment) could be called up to replace Noot in left field and, also like Noot, see some time in center. There’s a lot of enthusiasm building up around Báez, and as frustrating as it would be for the fan base to bid Noot adieu, not much livens up the rooters like the arrival of a premium prospect -- especially one with big-time power potential.
May strikes me as more of a market read closer to the deadline. He’s been healthy, his velocity’s back, he’s trending upward, and right now he ranks 12th in MLB among qualifiers in FIP. He’s a rental, which will lower the return (his mutual option for 2027, like most mutual options, is effectively meaningless), but he’s also modestly priced, as he’ll be owed the balance of a $12.5 million salary for 2026. If the Tigers continue to linger near-ish to the very low bar of the third AL wild card spot, they might opt to retain Skubal. If the Angels bow to common sense, they’ll keep Detmers, as he’s young enough and has enough remaining control to build around (the same goes for José Soriano). If those things happen, the supply of needle-moving starting pitchers likely on the move would be pretty thin after Ryan in Minnesota. If that’s indeed the case, and Hunter Dobbins and or Quinn Mathews are pounding on the door of the rotation, then I think May goes.
My preference is to extend May. He’s 28, and thus far this has been a mutually beneficial pairing of player and team. Perhaps, this close to free agency and having re-established his value, he’s not willing to sign an extension, but the possibility is worth vigorously exploring. Something with a slew of opt-outs at front end and conventional player options at the back end could lower the cost for the Cardinals, who do have genuine revenue concerns right now, and give May the biggest payday of his career while also providing him with a great deal of freedom. Short of that, there’s much to be said for keeping May for the stretch drive (and maybe playoffs!) and, in the absence of an extension, just tagging him with a qualifying offer in what may be the last offseason of that system.
My subect-to-change guess is that Bloom leading up to the deadline trades away Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Ryne Stanek, and Pedro Pagés. May feels like a coin-flip to me right now. That “subject to change” qualifier is important because it’s June 18, and Bloom can discuss trade parameters while the season continues to unfold in the background. Another four or five weeks should help clarify where the team stands and whether their current record or their current run differential is the truer indicator. Nothing needs to be decided now.
Finally, I think Craig Breslow is bad at his job, and the Sox’s decision to fire Bloom and pivot to him is yet another own-goal by ownership. Bloom and Breslow have already teamed up on multiple trades, and I’d love a bit more of that “asymmetrical warfare” leading up to this deadline. Sadly, the Sox are probably sellers rather than buyers this time around. I do appreciate the trade market established for May last summer, but trade markets sometimes aren’t all that informed by precedent in prior seasons. It’s more about supply and demand in the current year.
Eric writes:
Is Nolan Gorman no longer a developmental priority for the organization? It seems he should not be given the large sample size and lack of progress.
I do think he’s a priority, and I think of Oli Marmol’s pretty emphatic words following the decision to demote Gorman to Triple-A. Via Derrick Goold, here’s what Marmol said at the time:
“My hope in all this — and I want to be super clear on this — I and we as an organization are not giving up on Nolan Gorman. (He’ll get time) to figure out a way to remake the swing in order to get him to where he’s comfortable with it and then testing it out and going from there in a game setting. Because we can be a heck of a lot better if he’s back up here at some point hitting doubles and homers and especially with the improvement he’s made defensively. That’s my hope.”
Gorman has yet to play for Memphis, which means he’s in the “lab” addressing swing flaws and grooving a new approach at the plate, all surely under watchful sets of eyes. That’s not the approach you take with or the words you say about a throwaway player. This, after all, is a slugger who as a 23-year-old in 2023 hit 27 homers in 119 games with an ISO of .242. Gorman doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence after more than 1,800 plate appearances in the majors, but what does inspire a lot of confidence is the Cardinals’ reconstructed player-development program. They’re not giving up on the former first-rounder, at least until further notice. You give a hitter with his kind of power potential every opportunity to adapt.
Ron writes:
Who is next to be brought up from Memphis?
How long until Tink and Hjerpe are ready to contribute in St Louis?
Chris Roycroft was optioned to Memphis after the loss to the Padres on Wednesday, and at this writing a corresponding move hasn’t been made. The guess is that Brycen Mautz is en route, but he’s already been up once. I’ll say righty reliever Luis Gastelum and his wipeout changeup are next up. He’s not on the 40-player roster, and the 40 is full right now. That means a move will be necessary. Are Roycroft’s days on the 40 numbered? Maybe Justin Bruihl is a name to watch, but he’s fared much better in recent appearances. I think the Cardinals are still searching for their ideal bullpen mix, but there are limited options for churn thanks to the lack of minor league options that they’ll actually use. The 24-year-old Gastelum this season at Memphis has a 2.92 ERA in 37 innings, and he’s struck out 26.4% of opposing batters. He also boasts pretty balanced platoon tendencies, which is nice to have in the era of the three-batter minimum. I doubt we see Hence and Hjerpe in St. Louis this season. Hence is trying to rebuild his stuff and find his way to more stamina and durability, and Hjerpe is three appearances into his comeback from Tommy John surgery. Maybe we see one or both of them in September but probably not before then. Hjerpe in particular will probably be handled conservatively during this bridge year.
The unspoken part of this question, for me at least, is Joshua Báez. Báez is fresh off a stunning four-homer performance, and for his age-23 season he’s slugging .621 at Memphis with 23 home runs in 63 games. Not surprisingly, his batted-ball quality is also strong -- he’s got a hard-hit rate north of 50% and a barrel rate of 27.6% (the latter versus a Triple-A average mark of 17.2%). This comes off a breakout 2025 performance in which he added power and drastically cut down on his strikeout rate at Double-A. Much has been expected of the toolsy Báez for some time, and he’s been making good on the press clippings for months and months. However, he’s not going to be in St. Louis until there’s a clear path to regular playing time. Nootbaar’s back, Nathan Church is getting runway in center, and Nelson Velázquez has more than filled the role of part-time lefty masher in the outfield. There’s just no room for him presently.
The other concern is Báez’s plate discipline. His strikeout rate has spiked to more than 30% (it was 20.6% last season), and he’s walking in just 7.0% of his plate appearances. He’s also chasing at pitches outside the strike zone 36.7% of the time versus a Triple-A average chase rate of 27.3%. His swinging-strike rate is much higher than that of his peers, and the same goes for his contact rate on pitches in the zone. Some of these indicators have gotten modestly better in June but not all of them. All of this raises worries that Báez right now won’t be able to put bat on ball often enough against big-league pitching. The power numbers are deeply impressive, but these are real red flags and indicators that Báez is still a work in progress. For all these reasons, I don’t think a promotion is imminent, and honestly I don’t think it should be. I’m very bullish on Báez long-term, but he needs to command the zone better than he is right now. I’ll repeat that maybe post-deadline is his horizon.
Jay writes:
I know that Bloom and DeWitt have both telegraphed a minimal payroll through 2027 but does the massive organizational hole at 3rd base change that timeline? Gorman is done, he was done last year but they had to try one more time. Meanwhile, there isn’t a Baez percolating in Memphis, there isn’t even a Rodriguez down in AA who can play third. The organizational depth at 3rd base is awful. Does Bloom look to make his first big FA/trade this winter, ahead of schedule, to fill an obvious hole that has no internal option to even dream on?
I don’t think so. Blaze Jordan is the guy right now, and his defense at third has been much better than advertised or expected thus far. Offensively, I have some concerns about his low walk rate and high-ish ground-ball proclivities, but he can put bat to ball and occasionally pop it. They’re going to see what he is, and he might be the long-term guy at the hot corner. I’ll also repeat what I said above and note that Gorman is not yet a lost cause. You’re right, though, that it’s not the strongest position in terms of organizational depth. Down in Peoria, 21-year-old Jesús Báez, whom they got from the Mets in the Ryan Helsley trade, may be one to watch. He’s a primary shortstop right now, but he’s seen time at third. This season, he’s got 14 homers in 53 games. For the time being, though, let’s appreciate that Jordan could be the fix.
OK, that’ll do it for this time around. I’ll be back soon with the answers to the rest of your mailbag contributions.