Reader Mailbag, Part 1: Possible contention in 2027 and 2028, the very bright future in the outfield, Oli Marmol's job security, the catching situation, and more
Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly correct and coherent
Going into a home series against the Rockies that should bring the Cards back to .500 or better, let’s take time for discourse.
You, gentle readers, responded to the recent call for mailbag questions with zeal and abundance, so I’ll be breaking up my replies into two posts. The first one is just below. Forthwith!
Aaron writes:
I have two somewhat related questions for you.
1. As we move past the third Cardinals sell-off in the last four years, I am wondering if this offseason might finally be the transition from selling to building/adding-on. I realize that the offseason might still include trading away a catcher (or two), but might we also see some competitive, longer-term additions, or do you think that waits until after the 2027 season concludes?
2. I believe one of either Goold, Miklasz, or Leitch (part of my proverbial Cards’ Coverage Mt. Rushmore) said that the Cardinals are only committed to $15 million dollars in payroll obligations next year and beyond. If it’s anywhere in that range, don’t you think the Cardinals could get creative in the next year or two and offer some very, very high AAV at a very short term -- something like what Tucker recently took to go to LAD? I mean, when you have that much payroll to work with...if you feel like you’re close to competing....
Thanks for the contribution, Aaron. My guess is, no, there won’t be any bold near-term-oriented moves this coming offseason. Some of it may depend on what the next CBA looks like and whether small-market teams like the Cardinals get a higher cut of local revenues (or whether those local revenues are slated to be nationalized and shared equally). Absent such a change, the Cardinals are going to have revenue concerns given the hit their local-broadcast revenues have taken and the drop in attendance. I don’t think you’re going to see any big spending by the DeWitts. It’s also not an especially strong class once you get past Tarik Skubal. Given the successful reclamation and trade of Dustin May, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chaim Bloom take on another such project, but that’s not the kind of addition you’re wondering about.
On another level, I’m not sure the Cardinals are going to project as strong contenders next season, which means they probably won’t make major external additions to that end. Even with the basement level payroll – as you hint, they’ll owe JJ Wetherholt $2.75 million next season, and the only other guarantee is a total of $13 million to pay down the contracts of Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, per the terms of those trades – I don’t see much spending or assumption of multi-year obligations on the immediate horizon. The potential exceptions would be a long-term extension for someone like Jordan Walker or a trade for a notable young talent with multiple years of team control remaining (the recent deadline trade of José Soriano to the Blue Jays, for example).
Going into the 2028 season, things will probably be different, but that’s really too far out to guess who’s developed successfully within the organization and what the league’s labor structure looks like.
Ron writes:
Love the work on our favorite team.
It seems that there is a lot of duplication now with the recent additions. By that I mean multiple guys for the same position at the same level (Peete-Ragsdale-Cho) for CF in Springfield. Many many Starting pitching options at that level as well.
My question: is this talent going to sort itself out soon OR do you see a BIG trade consolidating some of this on the horizon?
Thanks
Thank you, Ron. I’m inclined to answer “both” to your question. This, as the saying goes, would be a good problem to have.
The organizational depth at catcher is much discussed, and as you note there’s a potential abundance of young outfielders on the way. I wouldn’t necessarily classify Josiah Ragsdale and Won-Bin Cho as future center fielders (although they could be), but I’d instead bucket all these names under the more general phylum of “future outfielders.” Further behind them, there’s also Franklin Arias, acquired from the Brewers in the Dustin May trade, Emanuel Luna, Ryan Mitchell, and recent top pick Trevor Condon, and ahead of them is of course Joshua Báez. Báez will make his way to St. Louis probably by mid-August, at which point he’ll be able to maintain rookie eligibility for 2027. It says much about the current depth of the Cardinals’ system that Cho, who’s slashing .303/.420/.633 as a 22-year-old since his promotion to Springfield, isn’t even on MLB.com’s updated, postdeadline list of our top 30 prospects. There’s potentially a similar situation on the pitching front, which I’ll get more into below.
As for the meat of your question, yes, some of this will be sorted out by the usual attrition rates, but the leveled-up player-development program and these impressive raw materials mean that the Cardinals will probably wind up with bottlenecks in some of these roles. I expect when the time comes, Bloom will indeed trade from depth in order to make targeted strikes upon the active roster.
Jay writes:
Is Marmol just completely bulletproof until the 2028 season or beyond? No matter how the team performs, we’re just chalking it up to roster construction?
If so, what does the roster need to look like before we can start evaluating his results?
I wouldn’t say completely bulletproof, no. A true bottoming out in 2027, say more than 100 losses, might well imperil him. That said, Bloom and Oli Marmol are clearly simpatico, and I have little doubt that if Bloom deemed him to not be the guy to lead this transition phase, then he would’ve made that change – Bloom was quite empowered by the DeWitts to make such changes.
Thus far, this year’s Cardinals model has exceeded expectations – they’re close to .500 despite having played the second-toughest schedule to date in all of MLB. Assuming that generally persists, it’s going to buy Marmol additional latitude moving forward. There just seems to be a lot of coordination with the front office on player usage and deployment, and whatever the team’s current faults, it’s hard to pin much of it on Marmol. I do of course have occasional tactical quibbles with him, but he’s pretty reliable at explaining in-game decisions that strike some of us as curious at the time. Often, there are unseen reasons for those decisions.
Looking forward, I think Marmol probably needs a postseason berth in 2028 or at least a near miss should the bar for the playoffs be higher than expected. If that happens, then I’m guessing he’s not going anywhere.
Keith writes:
What really sucks is that it’s quite likely that after Dec 1, MLB will shut down and the Hot Stove league will only exist on the labor bargaining table. But for now….looking forward…. 1) Is Jordan Walker going to be a 30/100 hitter? 2) Is Nolan Gorman no longer a prospect (or Cardinals)? 3) Who’s going to play CF? 4) Who’s going to play 3B? 5) What/where is the future for Ivan Herrera? It’s not behind the plate. 6) Cardinals have been very fortunate this year regarding the healthy of the rotation. Where is depth and Ace coming from? 7) Will “Tarps Off” live after 2026??
Taking these in order …
1. Yes, I think he will be. I think he’s always going to need occasional resets and pauses for cage work and time with the coaches. He just has the kind of finely tuned mechanics that can go awry at various points. The foundation, though, is finally there, and I think Walker will be that homegrown middle-of-the-order thumper that the Cardinals have long sought. There might be some streakiness to his overall production, but I believe he’ll be that moving forward. There’s a basis of plate discipline and ball-elevation that hasn’t been there in the past.
2. Probably not, but I’m not prepared to fully dismiss him yet. He’s found a higher gear in Memphis lately, and he has 10 home runs in 34 games there. The swing-and-miss is still excessive, though, which makes me suspect he’s not going to pass muster at the highest level. I’d guess we’ll see Gorman again in St. Louis at some point down the stretch, and he’s a non-tender candidate going into the offseason. Until further notice, I’ll predict that’s his fate.
3. I’m going to guess status quo for now, which means Nathan Church against right-handers and various/assorted against left-handers. I am interested in seeing what kind of role, if any, recent waiver claim Everson Pereira carves out. He’s got real power potential, and he’s just 25 years of age with barely a year of MLB service time. He needs to tame his swing and miss, but he’s a really interesting post-deadline addition thanks to some promising quality-of-contact indicators and strong power outputs in the minors. He’s a plus at the outfield corners and is adequate in center. Maybe he’s a platoon possibility in the role, or, heck, maybe he’s more than that. It may be a bit before some of the young outfielders named above are in the mix, and I think Joshua Báez is bound for a corner. Josiah Ragsdale could be in Memphis before the current season is up, so maybe he’s one to watch for the 2026 center field situation. Meantime, Victor Scott II just hasn’t shown enough in Memphis as of yet to insert himself back in the mix.
4. As noted above, I’m pretty bear-ish on Gorman. I’m still in wait-and-see mode on Blaze Jordan, as his quality of contact has been improving in recent games. He also continues to look surprisingly strong with the glove. For now, I think it’s Jordan, provided he continues making strides with the bat and shows some capacity to handle same-side pitching. Looking further ahead, I still have my eye on shortstop Jesús Báez, who’s putting up big power numbers this season as a 21-year-old (29 homers across stints at High-A and Double-A). He may be too good defensively to move off shortstop, though.
5. See just below on Herrera.
6. There’s no doubt been some good fortune, but after this very long, multi-season run of rotation health, it’s getting safer to assume there’s an actionable and repeatable plan behind it all. The plan is to develop their next ace internally, and there are some legitimate long-term options for that. I will say that I don’t think it’s anyone presently in the rotation. I’ll have more to come on the future rotation in Part 2 of this mailbag. .
7. Yes. I expect the club to encourage it, and there’s plainly a block of paying customers who get a kick out of it. It’s fun, and it says here it shall continue.
Tony writes:
With this season more than two-thirds over, how do the Cardinals think the Ivan Herrera at Catcher trial is working? Who do you think will be our most frequent catcher in the 2027 season?
I suspect Herrera will be moved off the position after this season. He hasn’t shown much growth in controlling the running game, and with a crowded situation at the position on the horizon I think his time there is limited. I suspect he’ll be moved to DH this coming winter and perhaps also see some time at first base and left field. There’s an alternate reality in which Herrera shows a surprising capacity for third base – a catcher-to-third transition isn’t unprecedented – but I have no reason to think that’s feasible.
As for 2027, I think Leo Bernal will be the primary catcher for the bulk of next season. He’s a skilled defender, and his bat seems to be in the midst of a growth spurt at Memphis. I still want to see what Jimmy Crooks can do at the plate with more consistent reps, but my feeling is that Bernal is poised to pass him in the queue, pending Rainiel Rodriguez’s eventual arrival in St. Louis (and depending upon how much Rodriguez catches). I think there’s a good chance that an offseason trade happens within this space.
OK, that’ll do it for this round. Back soon with the rest of your questions and contributions.