Reader Mailbag, Part 1: The catcher situation, favorite book(s) of 2026, MLB.tv commercials, Hunter Dobbins, and more
Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly correct and coherent
Coming off an invigorating ninth-inning comeback win in the rubber match against the A’s, let’s have a dialogue. As is typically the case, I’m breaking up my responses to your mailbag contributions into two posts. Post one starts … NOW!
Let’s start with a couple of Pedro Pagés questions, including one from our celebrity interlocutor.
The great Will Leitch of the Seeing Red podcast writes:
Sir! I hope you are well! Thank you for the great work as always. My question: Bernie and I had a semi-heated (for us) discussion today about Pedro Pages and, really, what to do with the catching position. I am a fellow Pages skeptic, to say the least, but Bernie made the case that we DO have to listen to the pitchers who love pitching to him, particularly with Pozo not doing much of anything and Crooks (and the other minor league catchers) not being ready yet. What SHOULD they do with the catching position if this team continues to contend but Pages still can’t hit? Do we not, as Bernie says, give Pages the same wide berth for poor hitting that we gave not just Yadi, but Matheny and Pagnozzi before him)?
And Bob writes:
We have been told that this year is to determine the players for the future, yet Pages is making most of the starts at catcher. Do you see him as the long term answer at catcher and if so, do you think the Cardinals will shop the minor league catchers, and if not do you think they should bring up a young catcher and see what they have?
Last time I checked in on Pagés, he was showing some signs of life at the plate, but thereupon he snuffed out those hopes with an 0 for 22 streak. That means he’s back to what he’s been for the span of his MLB career, which is a liability at the plate even by catcher standards — both in terms of top-line outputs and expected outcomes. Speaking of which, right now he’s in the fifth percentile in xwOBA.
Obviously, the Cardinals are enamored of Pagés’ defense, and, yes, he is a quality defensive catcher except when it comes to blocking pitches. As the esteemed Mr. Miklasz pointed out in the episode in question, the pitchers who regularly work with Pagés do indeed sing his praises. The reality is that he’s going to continue being the primary catcher until his lack of offensive production becomes such that it outweighs his defensive contributions and his “pitcher shepherding” skills. I don’t know what level of offensive production that would be other than to say he hasn’t apparently hasn’t reached it yet.
I do have a couple of thoughts about that timeline and then a couple of thoughts about how I’d like to see Oli Marmol adjust his usage of Pagés moving forward (and while bowing to the reality that Pagés isn’t going anywhere right now). My first thought is that Pagés’ poor offensive production would be a bit easier to tolerate if he weren’t so often batting in front of the even more punchless Victor Scott II (more on Scott in part two of this mailbag). Pagés has spent the vast majority of his 2026 lineup time in the No. 8 spot, and quite often Scott has been the No. 9 hitter behind Pagés. The Cardinals this season have gotten an OPS of .511 combined from the No. 8 and No. 9 lineup spots, and that ranks 28th in MLB. (Yes, those figures include Scott’s nifty Thursday homer in Sacramento.) That’s a problem, and it may mean Pagés’ offensive woes are more keenly felt by Cards fans than they would be if he weren’t paired with an even worse hitter in Scott.
This, for instance, might be a more palatable lineup by the time late May/early June rolls around:
JJ Wetherholt, 2B
Iván Herrera, DH
Alec Burleson, 1B
Jordan Walker, RF
Lars Nootbaar, LF
Masyn Winn, SS
Nolan Gorman, 3B
Nathan Church, CF
Pedro Pagés, C
My working assumption is that Church emerges as the primary center fielder upon Nootbaar’s return from the 60-day IL, and Church instead of Scott at the bottom of the lineup makes it easier to tolerate Pagés’ bat, which gets pushed to the nine hole.
The other supporting character in this story is Jimmy Crooks, the Cardinals’ closest-to-ready catching prospect. Crooks is a skilled defender behind the plate, and this season he’s working on a career year with the bat. (That’s saying something since Crooks was the 2024 Texas League MVP.) In 111 at-bats for Memphis, he’s batting .252/.403/.604 with 12 home runs, 24 walks, and 67 total bases going into Thursday’s slate of games. That’s obviously elite production, especially for a plus fielder at a premium position. The problem, however, is strikeouts.
Lots of walks and homers is a good way to overcome excessive strikeout tendencies, but Crooks does indeed K too often. This season, he’s struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances versus a Triple-A average of 23.0%. That raises real concerns that he’ll strike out even more against MLB pitchers and thus won’t be able to get bat to ball often enough to take advantage of present capacity to crush pitches on contact (Crooks has a hard-hit rate north of 50%, and a barrel rate of more than 30%).
Perhaps, though, the lefty-swinging Crooks should be thought of as a primary half of a catching platoon once he arrives in St. Louis. Crooks in 2026 is striking out 42.1% of the time against same-handed pitching, but against right-handers he’s striking out a much more tolerable 26.7% of the time. If we look at the 2023 season through 2025 -- including Crooks’ 15-game stint in St. Louis last year -- we find he struck out 22.8% of the time against RHPs and 25.8% of the time against LHPs. Really, Crooks’ strikeout issues in 2026 are confined to a big spike in platoon-disadvantaged spots across a sample of 38 plate appearances. Those swing and miss problems become a little less grave through that lens.
Also, consider how Crooks has fared against non-fastballs -- i.e., breaking stuff and offspeed stuff -- this season by handedness, as measured by strikeout rate, wOBA, and xwOBA:
The K% jumps, as it does for pretty much every hitter against those pitch types, but he’s thriving against the opposite side at both offensive output and expected production based on quality of contact. Stated another way, Crooks against right-handers isn’t just smoking fastballs. Crooks this season is slashing .250/.455/.625 against breaking and offspeed pitches from right-handers.
The front office is of course privy to more than I am, but I’m having trouble believing Crooks isn’t ready for a second look in St. Louis, albeit while being spelled against left-handers (at least as long as the team is contending and in need of such tactical advantages). Maybe that’s Herrera, which would mean he’d catch when a lefty is starting for the opposition as opposed to always being paired with Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante. That would mean a third catcher role for Pagés, being optioned to Memphis, or shipped out in trade. Another option would be to scale back Herrera’s time at catcher and have him make spot appearances at the position while otherwise serving as the almost-every-day DH. Pagés would then become the light half of the platoon with Crooks. I think the latter would be the most likely path in the event of Crooks being recalled because I can’t imagine they’ll bring Crooks to St. Louis just for him to sit around most of the time.
And what if Crooks fails to develop against left-handed pitching? I can’t say I’m too concerned about that. He turns 25 in July, which means he’s not a high-upside prospect with a great deal of development left outside of the serialized adjustments every player makes at this level. He’s a potentially useful regular, and “regular” for catchers typically means catching 60-70% of a team’s innings barring injury. There’s no real reason those days off for Crooks can’t be arrived at through a traditional platoon arrangement.
In the event the status quo continues to hold for the time being -- my expectation -- I’d like to see Marmol tweak his usage a bit. As long as Yohel Pozo is on the active roster, he needs to be more than a silent protest spot for not being able to carry 14 pitchers. Give him a start a week behind the plate at the expense of Pagés. Also, Marmol should be more aggressive in pinch-hitting for Pagés. If the Cardinals are behind but within reasonable striking range, and Pagés isn’t, say, facing the starting pitcher for the third time in that game, then call him back, even in the middle innings.
This is a long-winded way of making two primary points:
Crooks strikes me as ready for a promotion, both offensively and defensively, and he should be the load-bearing half of a catching platoon in St. Louis.
I doubt this is going to happen until further notice, and it’s possible the reasons for that are sound, even if they elude me.
All of this remains a fascinating subplot of the season.
Dane writes:
Any idea about what they’re doing with Hunter Dobbins? How long before he might replace someone like Pallante?
First of all, you have a good name, and it’s spelled properly, unlike mine.
I think Dobbins is just filling the up-and-down rotation depth role that McGreevy filled last year, which means we can expect to see him in St. Louis when the schedule -- or injury -- demands. I do tend to agree, though, that if someone in the current rotation gets bumped at any point in the near future, then it’s probably Pallante. He hasn’t been terrible, but he also hasn’t really taken that next step despite persistent expectations that he’ll do that at some point. His next start will be the 70th of his MLB career. I can also see the Cardinals needing another bulk-inning relief arm at some point, which could also play into a Pallante decision (he could ably fill that role). A trade of Dustin May at leading up to the deadline would also open a spot, which Dobbins would presumably be first in line to populate.
Jibby writes:
What is the best book you have read so far in 2026?
I maintain a doc with the books I’ve read sorted by year. I don’t get into rating them beyond bolding the entry if I liked it/deemed it having been worth reading. Anyhow, it’s only the middle of May, and I already have a lot of bolded titles for 2026. I’ll highlight two of my favorites thus far. One is The Great Believers by Rebecca Makkai, which is a character-driven fictional exploration of the AIDS crisis in Chicago. The other is Ohio by Stephen Markley. Ohio is a relentlessly bleak novel -- I enjoy bleak, actually -- that centers on high school acquaintances and interconnected spasms of violence that in some ways reunite them years later. I’d describe each as literary in aspiration but also impossible for me to put down.
Matthew writes:
When I read about the Cards taking over their broadcast ad sales, I figured it would help offset the revenue lost from ending their RSN deal. However when I watch the MLB produced games, the commercials are almost entirely house ads. Is there a reason the team isn’t/can’t sell more advertising against their games?
I do recall reading that the Cardinals are controlling their local ad inventory under the new broadcast arrangement. However, I’m out of market, so I watch through the MLB.tv package that lovingly includes blackouts. The MLB.tv ads have been a persistent wasteland thus far. I especially hate this one:
Infernal jingle, I say. And then there’s a Jeep commercial with AI talking animals that moves me to contempt. The eagle with the faux redneck accent is the latest cultural nadir confronting us. I can’t speak to the local commercials you’re seeing, but I do sense we’re in a bit of a dark period for television advertising quality in general.
Chris writes:
First time, long time. A question and a statement for you - feel free to reply to one, both or neither:
1. Something I’ve wondered and never hear about - do teams send starting pitchers ahead to the next city in an upcoming series? I recall this was definitely a thing during playoff baseball, but not sure if it continues during the regular season. It seems to me that if you’re about to play in, say, Colorado or on the opposite coast, it makes sense to get that guy acclimated to the new time zone and/or altitude.
2. It’s because it was Castellanos that it hurt so much. I know I’m not alone in that. Machado would have hurt, too, but not as much.
Love the newsletter - thanks!
And thank you!
1. This is an interesting question, and honestly I have no idea. How’s that for a roundly unsatisfying answer?
2. You speak of this the recent San Diego Shakedown in the series finale. I was able to avoid too much gnashing of teeth over that one because the Cardinals have so ably outplayed their run differential thus far in 2026 and, as such, I suspect we had one of these coming. There was no need for Castellanos to be the one to do it, though.
All right, that’ll do it for this time. Back soon with the rest of your mailbag submissions.