Reader Mailbag, Part 1: What's wrong with Noot? What's wrong with Helsley? Plus trade-deadline talk and more

Readers have questions, writer has answers, some of them possibly even coherent and correct

Thanks for the abundance of mailbag contributions. So abundant was that abundance that I’m breaking up my responses into two posts. Part 1 starts now …

Eric writes:

Lars Nootbaar’s career has been a great success for an 8th round pick. Over time he has received breakout predictions from well respected baseball analysts (i.e., Joe Sheehan) that just hasn’t materialized, with injuries being a factor. Do you think he reaches the next level, or is this who he is?

And speaking of Nootbaar and Joe Sheeehan, the godfather of baseball newsletters himself writes:

What the hell happened to Lars Nootbaar?

I’m afraid I don’t have a satisfying answer to this question. He’s been a bit unlucky thus far, as measured by xwOBA (what’s this?) vs. wOBA, and at the level of expected production he’s not far off his career norms. At age 27, healthy at last, and working his way toward 500 career games, maybe this is just who he is?

He’s hitting the ball in the air much more often this season, and he’s also added bat speed. According to Statcast bat-tracking metrics, Nootbaar is also catching the ball way more out in front relative to prior seasons, presumably in an effort to pull the ball in the air more often. If the idea behind these changes is to unlock more power in a hitter who already hits the ball hard, it’s not working, at least according to Nootbaar’s career-worst SLG and ISO.

Elsewhere, he’s struggling with spin but not all that much more than he did last season. His walk rate remains strong, and there’s been very little month-to-month difference in his pitches seen per plate appearance.

Is it fatigue? In each of the last two seasons, Nootbaar had two IL stints by this point on the calendar, but in 2025 thus far he’s played in all but two games (which comes after 18 spring-training games played for Nootbaar). He’s also batted leadoff much more frequently in 2025 than he did in prior seasons. To sum it up, here’s how many plate appearances he’s racked up by June 10 in each of the last three seasons:

• 2025: 296 PAs

• 2024: 164 PAs

• 2023: 184 PAs

That’s quite an uptick. It’s also worth noting that Nootbaar’s xwOBAs have declined every month of the season thus far, and in June his average exit velocity is down to 88.1 mph (versus a season-to-date average of 91.7 mph) and his hard-hit rate down to 35.0% (versus a season-to-date average of 51.3%). This of course does not amount to unassailable evidence that Nootbaar is getting tired. It could be just noise, or I suppose it could be some underlying and unreported injury through which he’s playing. I do wonder, though, if more rest leading up to the break might benefit him.

Mark writes:

Ryan Helsley?

That's all. That's the question.

Monday night’s blown save against the Blue Jays, so soon after Iván Herrera’s thrilling go-ahead home run in the top of the ninth, was indeed a gut punch. Speaking of blown saves, that was Helsley’s fifth of the season. Last year, he blew just four saves all season.

Broadly, walks up are down, and strikeouts are down. He’s getting in-zone swings at a higher rate than ever, and he’s also allowing in-zone contact at a higher-rate than ever. Since in-zone contact tends to breed the most damage, that’s a problem. Yes, his current BABIP (what’s this?) of .344 is likely to come down, but passively waiting on such a correction is a tricky proposition. At this point, I’m wondering if a shift in Helsley’s pitch mix is in order.

On that front, let’s note that in 2025 opponents are teeing off on Helsley’s fastball with a wOBA of .456 and an xwOBA of .413 against the pitch he’s thrown a plurality of the time. Last season, those figures were .183 and .206, respectively. He’s lost half a tick of velocity on his fastball, and he’s also shed a bit of spin relative to last year. Stuff+, which through advanced means gauges the quality of offerings, pegs Helsley’s fastball as being in its worst shape since 2021. Meanwhile, his slider this season has earned the highest Stuff+ marks of Helsley’s career.

Now here’s how the xwOBA on Helsley’s slider has tracked over the years:

• 2019: .276

• 2020: .300

• 2021: .266

• 2022: .222

• 2023: .149

• 2024: .206

• 2025: .170

A pretty easy adjustment for a pitcher to make is “throw your best pitch more often.” This season Helsley is throwing his fastball slightly more often than he’s throwing his slider. I’m hardly a pitching coach, but I’m wondering if spamming his slider at heretofore unseen levels – maybe 55-60% of the time – is a viable path forward. This would hardly be unprecedented for a contemporary relief pitcher.

We’re talking about 24 innings, doled out erratically much of the time, so maybe he finds his accustomed level soon enough. On the other hand, Helsley is now in his thirties, and high-leverage, high-octane relievers tend not to have long peaks. Maybe it’s time for a simple adjustment like the one prescribed above. That, like almost all of life, is for people smarter than I to figure out.

Stephen writes:

I’m curious if the cardinals last night opened a can of worms with “fatigue “ being used as an injury bullpen substitution allowing King all the time he desired to warm up?

Doesn’t this create an easy path for all teams to make the trainer go out first and get the pitcher to say they are tired allowing a manager NOT have someone warming up?

Seems like a way around the rules of bullpen usage.

That’s a theoretical possibility, I guess, but I’m not sure the tactical payoff is worth the hassle. As well, unwritten rules that are flouted with any regularity soon become written rules. If it did turn into a thing, I suspect it would be addressed from on high pretty quickly. Specific to this situation, Liberatore’s steep drop in velocity late in that start gave the Cardinals ample cause to think something was legitimately wrong with him.

Gerald writes:

1. What is the realistic expectation for the Cardinals at the trade deadline? I do not see any splashy moves coming in but maybe going out.

2. What arms are available in the minors to help out our current bullpen situation.

If they’re still in contention, I would expect maybe an addition to the middle-relief corps. Nothing terribly inspiring. If the rotation is no longer intact by that point, then I suppose a starter might be targeted. Given the emphasis on the long-term in St. Louis right now, I’m not sure the front office would be willing to pay the going rates unless it’s for a young-ish starter with multiple years of control remaining. Those, of course, tend not to be traded too often. If things go awry between now and late July, then Steven Matz should be easy enough to move, and Erick Fedde may also drum up interest as a back-end solution. It’s easy to envision a team willing to take a swing on Helsley even if he continues struggling. The complications with any Nolan Arenado trade are still in place, of course.

As for your second question, let me hit starters briefly. Michael McGreevy of course remains first man up, and he’s likely to get another start in St. Louis during this current stretch of schedule in which off days are rare. Quinn Mathews recently returned from his shoulder injury, and he had his strongest start of the season mere days ago. He’s probably close to being back on the radar despite all the missed time. Tekoah Roby was recently bumped up to Memphis after a dominating 10 turns in the Springfield rotation. He may have the best stuff in the upper rungs of the system right now.

On the bullpen front, which is what you asked about, I’d keep an eye on Andre Granillo. He’ll need to be added to the 40-player roster prior to any call-up, but it’s hard to ignore the mid-90s fastball and dominance at Triple-A (39.8 K% this season). Honestly, it’s probably past time for him to be in St. Louis, roster crunch notwithstanding. Ryan Fernandez has looked generally much better of late in Memphis, so he’ll probably be part of the churn again at some point possibly soon. The Cardinals recently added Tyler Matzek after the Yankees DFA’d him, but he’d also need to be added to the 40-player.

Jay writes:

At the end of his deal in 2026 Gray will be 37. Liberatore is showing great promise but this team has been burned before by banking on one good season by a player (see: 2016-2022). We all hope McGreevy and Matthews elevate in the next 12-15 months. With that said, this team needs another elite arm if they are serious about becoming NLDS/NLCS contenders again. Mikolas and Matz’s expiring contracts will open up $32m in available payroll. Are DeWitt/Bloom prepared to put all of that towards one elite pitcher?

To my thinking, that depends upon the outlook for 2026 and how the internal candidates fare the rest of the way. As things stand, contention next season seems like a realistic aim. Right now, you’d be looking at Sonny Gray, Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tekoah Roby and perhaps Kyle Leahy and Gordon Graceffo in the mix for rotation work. Would they spring for a Dylan Cease or a Michael King or a Framber Valdez or even a Ranger Suárez this coming winter? I have my doubts, even though home attendance is on the upswing. That internal reluctance to commit to high-dollar pitcher contracts is probably still in place, given that the DeWitts still sign the checks. Maybe if Zac Gallen’s struggles persist he becomes open to some kind of “pillow contract” arrangement with player options and opt-outs that gives him the opportunity to re-establish his value and re-enter the market soon after. Right now, though, the Cardinals may have enough in-house possibilities. This is one of those areas in which the rest of the season will be telling, what with performances across the larger sample and attrition rates.

Aaron writes:

Maybe it's way too early for this, but with the draft upcoming and the Cards having a very exciting spot, I'm already thinking about 2026+. The Cards will have a lot of money coming off the books, but.... how much do you think they'll actually do with it? Where do you see the best and most possible places for them to improve this thing from outside (we know they want to improve from drafting and developing, but you also have to supplement)? Also, at some point might we see some consolidation of young assets into a single difference maker (on that note, some catcher(s) are gonna have to go at some point)?

This in part was answered above with regard to the rotation. The problem is that the upcoming free-agent class isn’t especially a strong one. Kyle Tucker is a true star, but I can’t imagine the Cardinals will meet the ask and dislodge one of their young/sort-of-young outfielders to make space for him. Otherwise, maybe targeted strikes in the bullpen? The upcoming FA market is kind of poor fit in terms of talent available and the Cardinals’ roster needs.

OK, back soon with Part 2 of this mailbag.