Reader Mailbag, Part 2: Brendan Donovan trade talk, the Nolan Arenado market, "The Wire" characters, football coaching carousel, Blue Jays pain and suffering, and more

Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly correct and coherent

Last time out, we did Part 1 of your mailbag questions, and now it’s time for Part 2.

Ken writes:

What is your take on trading Donovan? He’s arguably the Cardinals’ best player. I’d like to see him stay and get an extension and build around him. Obviously there’s a camp that says get a haul for him now at his highest trade value.

Yeah, this is a tough call, and there’s increasing chatter and actual reporting that momentum is building toward a trade of the 28-year-old Donovan this winter. I’m of two minds about it, but I lean toward thinking that dealing him this offseason is a sound idea. There’s a crowded infield situation, as we all know, and that’s the case even before any trade of Nolan Arenado. That situation gets even more nettlesome if, as expected, JJ Wetherholt positions himself to crack the Opening Day roster in 2026. Sure, you could line up Donovan for playing time in left, but that’s Lars Nootbaar’s spot, and his status as likely offseason trade bait has been complicated by his undergoing surgery on both feet. On another level, Donovan is at his most valuable when he’s either lodged at a premium defensive position (second base) or filling a multi-positional role. On still another level, I’d like a corner spot left relatively open for a possible early-season callup of Joshua Baez, who’s a lock to be added to the 40-man this offseason and greatly raised his profile and ceiling in 2025.

Those considerations notwithstanding, I suspect the prospect of a Donovan trade is mostly about Bloom’s belief that he can get a high return for him. Donovan is coming off another strong offensive season in 2025, and he’s now amassed a career WAR of 11.1 in 492 games. This past season, he logged a career-high 809 defensive innings at second and also made five starts at short. With the bat, there’s reason to believe he may have found a higher level in 2025. Through the end of May, Donovan boasted a wOBA of .373 and backed it up with xwOBA of .370. In June, though, an MRI on Donovan’s ailing left toe turned up a sprained capsule in the joint of that toe. Donovan toughed it out, but the injury compromised his lower half and sapped his production. Absent that injury, Donovan may have been on his way to a career year at the plate, in terms of both top-line outputs and underlying indicators that suggested it was all sustainable. Teams interested in trading for Donovan are obviously aware of the potentially higher offensive ceiling despite the career-normish overall numbers he wound up with this past season. Just as important is that Donovan going into 2026 has two full years of team control remaining, and that certainty will be highly appealing on the market. I expect Bloom would primarily target young rotation help with swing-and-miss potential and the ability to dominate in the strike zone. At this relatively early juncture of the winter, my guess is Donovan gets traded.

dad discussions writes:

This has been harped on, but what’s our playoff contention timeline? 2 years until then? 1 the front office plays their cards right and the prospects in the system now mostly work out? And how do you think the looming strike and labor negotiations will affect this year’s class of free agents? Shorter deals with higher aav, perhaps. If you think a labor shutdown is probable, how does that affect the cardinals?

As for the contention timeline, much depends upon what trades happen this winter and whether Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman – assuming they’re not traded – make developmental strides in 2026. Walker is the more important one here, as he’s still just 23 years of age. Any shot at contention in 2026 probably requires the Cardinals to retain Sonny Gray. There just isn’t the rotation depth in place or in the higher rungs of the minors to paper over his loss unless Liam Doyle and maybe even Tanner Franklin move more quickly than expected. A trade of Gray and or Donovan probably signals that Bloom doesn’t see contention in 2026 as a likely outcome. On other levels, I’d answer the question with a pair of questions. One, will the Brewers be able to do what they keep doing again in 2026? And, two, will the Ricketts actually invest in the Cubs’ roster at levels befitting their spending prowess?

On the labor-stoppage front, yes, I’d expect that higher-AAV deals for premium free agents are in play. I’d also expect that some of those free agents press for higher salaries in 2026 – i.e., heavily frontloaded deals – and give back some overall value in order to get that certainty. Specific to the Cardinals, I think the looming CBA scrap could work in their favor when it comes to a Gray trade. The 2026 season will be the final one of his contract, assuming his $5 million buyout for 2027 is chosen over his $30 million option.

Jibby writes:

Who is your favorite character from the Wire and why?

Like almost everyone else, I’m partial to Omar Little, but if pressed into a more unconventional answer I’ll go with Frank Sobotka from season two. I loved the longshoreman’s union plot of that season, and seeing Sobotka gradually pulled in so many different directions made for a great character study.

Jibby writes:

If Chaim Bloom was a character from the Wire, which character would he be and why?

Tommy Carcetti, minus the barely functional moral compass. He’s an upstart who dislodges a tired entrenched regime, but there’s the risk the system will win in the end. Both have good hair.

Russ writes:

A college football question. What are your predictions for head coach at Penn State LSU Florida Auburn Arkansas

Based on no real insight, I’ll go with the following:

• Penn State: Manny Diaz

• LSU: Joe Brady

• Florida: Eli Drinkwitz (my apologies, Mizzou fans, but Florida is hereby barred from hiring Lane Kiffin)

• Auburn: James Franklin

• Arkansas: Jon Sumrall

Tony writes:

I think Toronto’s loss in Game 7 this year is the toughest “bad beat” (losing the game, no gambling implications) in my lifetime. Until then, I thought our victory over the Rangers in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series was the toughest bad beat, as Texas was twice within one strike of winning the World Series. However, Toronto was less than an inch away from winning this year’s WS in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7, as IKF was that close to scoring the winning run, and it hurts even more to learn he was coached against taking even a normal secondary lead. Agree, disagree, or have another example of a worse bad beat?

I’m inclined to agree, as Dodgers-Blue Jays Game 7 had so many coin-flip-type events go the Dodgers’ way. I think what makes it even more keenly painful for the Jays is that Game 6 was similarly crushing. What a series.

Eric writes:

loins first, obviously, is the best way to enter a room. what is the second best?

Ah, I’ll always cherish a NotGraphs callback. If the loins aren’t leading, then the crown of the helmet should be. No such thing as targeting in the real world.

Chad writes:

I also said this on Slack, but I really cannot figure out how they will find someone to take Arenado?

He’s still well above average on defense, but no longer premium. He hits lefties well (111 OPS+) in 2025.

However, he can no longer hit righties. He doesn’t hit for power. He’s always been a mediocre baserunner. I’m skeptical of his leadership given his behavior in 2023.

He’s had interest in going to a good team and can force that with his NTC.

What good team would want him? Or do they hope that he is open to teams in California or the west coast?

I already know the Cards will have to eat most of the remaining contract and will likely get a non-prospect in return.

It’ll be a challenge, but I think finding a fit is possible. The DeWitts have already signaled they’re willing to pay down more of his remaining commitment than they previously were, and Arenado has said his list of acceptable destinations will be larger this time around. As you note, he’s still a defensive plus at third base, and that has value. In the right lineup – meaning one that’s otherwise strong – he can be a passable bottom-of-the-lineup bat or, if he’s willing to accept such a role, the light half of a platoon and a late-inning defensive sub.

Over the course of a full season in which he’s mostly healthy, he can still be a 2-2.5 WAR guy, and that’s appealing as long as the Cardinals kick in significant cash. I expect he’ll be dealt, but the return will be scarcely worth mentioning. Specifics will again depend on the Alex Bregman market, but the Phillies seem like a possibility. Maybe the Dodgers if he’s open to a more limited role. The Padres perhaps if he’s still willing to play some first base. The Red Sox if Bregman goes elsewhere, and you can perhaps throw the Tigers in that bucket.

Chris writes:

As a follow-up to Part I, I really hope that Contreras is also shipped out of town as part of this rebuild. I know he says he wants to stay and he probably doesn’t have much value but Herrera could slip right in as the DH and be a long-term productive bat. Thoughts?

It certainly seems like Contreras wants to stick around, but if he changes his mind I think he’d have a market. He’s got power and elite batted-ball authority, and those things tend to be in demand. If he’s willing to don the tools of ignorance on a part-time basis, then that enhances his trade value. Thus far, though, he’s shown no public interest in leaving St. Louis. That’s to his credit given how he was treated early in his Cardinals tenure.

OK, that’s a wrap on questions. Back soon with, one hopes, a more crystallized look at the offseason ahead.