Reader Mailbag, Part 2: The attendance problem, the payroll future, logjam talk, mascots, mistakes, and more

Let's get to the rest of those mailbag submissions

Last time was Part 1 of the current mailbag edition, and now here’s part 2 …

Brian writes:

Last night my brother went to a game at Coors Field between the decidedly unsexy Rockies and Pirates and he said the place was packed. It made me think of Joe Sheehan's recent comment about the Cardinals: "I’m a little surprised by how unsticky their attendance has been given, what, a 30-year run of success?" Are you as surprised as Joe? Why do you think Busch has been such a ghost town, given that our team has been truly uncompetitive only once in recent memory? Boring players? A comedown from the high of past glory? Something about area social trends? All of the above? Do you think an exciting team will bring fans back, or is there something deeper going on? Curious to hear your thoughts, thanks.

I am surprised, particularly by the extent of the drop-off. In the absence of an obvious answer, I’m inclined to say all of the above.

I wonder if “broadly competitive” isn’t the bar for re-energizing Busch. Rather, I wonder if it’s “let’s go see this damn good team play.” Stated another way, I’m not sure a team that’s within competitive range of the third wild-card spot is the standard, but rather a team that’s on target for 95-plus wins or so is what’s needed to get out of this trough. I also wonder if the lack of an “appointment viewing” hitter in the lineup is playing a role. To be sure, it’s not exactly easy to dial up an Albert Pujols whenever you need one, but that kind of star presence in the lineup who’s capable of thundering one out of the park at any moment – the Ohtani, the Judge, the Acuña Jr., the Soto – may be something that gets turnstiles clicking.

On other levels, I wonder if the Cardinals’ ticket-pricing scheme is not optimally dovetailed with current economic realities and anxieties. The club was basically in the middle when it comes to average ticket prices coming into the current season, and maybe that’s too high given that Cardinals fans may be easily disaffected after seeing all those winning years come to rather abrupt halt. Anecdotally at least, the in-season weather seems to be a mix of rainy and oppressively hot, and that’s probably taken a toll, too.

Chad writes:

The Cardinals have been dropping off sizable salaries in recent years, but even then, I didn't realize how little payroll is committed after this year until I heard it mentioned recently in Seeing Red and/or the Best Podcast in Baseball (projected 40-man year-end payroll per Cot's Contracts):

2025: $134,153,972

2026: $72,398,000

2027: $38,000,000

Rightfully, there's a lot of focus on what Chaim Bloom is doing with the farm and development systems with players already in the system, recent draftees, and trade acquisitions, but I haven't heard much said about the major league payroll.

Assuming the television contract reduction and drop in attendance do not prevent the Cardinals getting back up to $200 million dollars again--where they were after 2024--Chaim has a lot of room to build out the team.

It would be hard to be worse than Mozeliak has done in the last half of his term (e.g., Carpenter, Cecil, Fowler, Holland, Leake, Mikolas) and Chaim had a mixed record of success in Boston, so I'm hoping for a Tampa Bay-era Bloom with more resources. Is that too much to hope for? How might you see this working out?

Those are long-term salary commitments and don’t take into account arbitration raises and the league-minimum salaries that will populate the rest of the roster. Next season, the only guaranteed contracts belong to Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray, the three players who will have no-trade clauses beyond the current season. For 2027, it’s down to Arenado and Contreras, assuming Gray’s $30 million/$5 million buyout club option is not exercised. All guaranteed money is off the books for 2028 once the team presumably opts for the $5 million buyout on the final year of Contreras’ contract. This assumes none of these three is traded in the interim.

Even if the Cardinals don’t get back to $200 million on the final 40-player payroll – and I certainly doubt they will in the near future – there’s room for some free-agent activity and certainly some long-term extensions for a young player or three. Given Masyn Winn’s high floor as an elite defensive shortstop, it’s probably worth exploring a multi-year pact that would provide some cost certainty during his arb years and buy out one or more free-agent years. He’s worth that kind of risk, I’d think. An aggressively early extension for JJ Wetherholt? Maybe. It’s a bit of trendlet in recent years in which the Cardinals have yet to indulge.

In terms of free agents, I can’t imagine the Cardinals will swing big enough to land, say, Kyle Tucker this coming winter or Tarik Skubal during the 2026-27 offseason (bear in mind the likely owner-implemented lockout will probably muck up that particular offseason and season). The middle class of free agents is typically where mistakes reside (see some of the Mo signings you ticked off above). As for the “retreads and serial under-performers” tier, finding opportunities there will be a good test of Bloom, his front office, and the player-dev and tech build-out. Basically, I think much will have to change before the Cardinals compete for star free agents, and Bloom probably knows better than to shop on the aisles that featured some of the Cardinals’ worst recent signings.

Russ writes:

Give me the percentage you think Brendan Donavan will be traded during this off season.

Interesting question. I’ll say 57%, and I suspect I’d offer a higher figure if asked again in a few weeks. As detailed last time, the lineup bottleneck has to be addressed this coming winter, and Donovan has more trade value than any arb-eligible player on the roster right now.

CJJ writes:

Who are your pennant favorites from each league?

I’ll stick with my preseason pick and say we get a Dodgers-Tigers World Series. Honestly, though, I don’t have a strong inclination, particularly in the AL. As always, there’s no such thing as a surprising postseason outcome because of the nature of this sport of ours.

Eric writes:

Do you think Arenado is having regrets after killing the trade to the Astros last off season?

I would lean yes on this. He had the Astros on the short-list of teams to which he’d approve a trade, but when it was time to make the decision he balked because the exits of Tucker and Alex Bregman made him think they weren’t going to contend. Arenado was wrong about that. The Astros presently have a narrow lead over the Mariners for first place in the AL West, and this season they’ve spent almost 80 days atop the division. On the other hand, Arenado’s decline at the plate has continued apace this season, and that would probably stick in his craw even more than it already does if he were playing his first season for a new team. Overall, though, I suspect he’d like a do-over.

JC writes:

Of the 3 targeted position players that were mentioned (Donovan, Burleson, Nootbaar), o/u 1.5 on the 2026 roster? Secondarily, are there recent examples across the league of players of similar caliber getting moved? What were their returns? Finally, do you foresee any abnormal balance of teams “going for it” vs “rebuilding” (pretending it’s binary for the sake of the question) given the almost assumed work stoppage in 2027?

I think two of them move, so, yes, 1.5 strikes me as a fair o/u. I’m not sure about comparable trades, but I would think Donovan as a productive left-handed bat who can capably man multiple positions and has two seasons of team control remaining would fetch a top-50 overall prospect as part of a multi-player return. Nootbaar also comes with two years of team control remaining, but I think he’d command less than Donovan given his more limited defensive profile and substantial injury history. Noot still hits the ball hard, but this season he’s seen declines at the level of xwOBA and in terms of his capacity to do damage on contact. I think Bloom tries to clear space elsewhere before trading Burleson, as he’s just now going to be first-year arb-eligible in 2026. To be sure, Burleson contributes to the current logjam, but I’m assuming Bloom would prefer to address that via other trades and resort to dealing Burleson only in the absence of other deals. Burleson’s not all that young as long-term core contributors go, but he’s not in his high-salary years yet and is quite productive as the heavy half of a platoon.

My guess is the lockout happens before the 2021-22 lockout did, which means less time to make spending decisions heading into the labor stoppage (laying aside the possibility of a calculated freeze-out heading into the lockout). Payroll disinvestment is already a problem in MLB, and with multiple franchises trying to position themselves for sales that’s another factor.

Jibby writes:

If you could go back in time and void one Cardinals transaction since you’ve been alive, what would it be and why?

I was born less than a month before the Steve Carlton trade, so that qualifies as during my lifetime. The Gussie Busch fit of pique over Carlton’s salary demands cost us a lefty starter who went on to put up 65 WAR and win four Cy Youngs on the Phillies’ watch. Yes, I’d like that one back.

Jibby writes:

If you had to spend one day as a MLB team mascot, which one would it be and why?

Clark the Cub. He’s already stripped nude below the waist so sullying his reputation forevermore via civic mayhem and lawlessness would be pretty easy. I’d etch him in history as a menace.

Michael writes:

I realize that Bloom probably already has a vision for resolving the logjam, but there are a lot of factors here, and it won't be easy to get it right. I suspect that he wants to see (if they can recover from injury and stay injury free the last two months) what Nootbaar, Walker, Gorman, and Burleson do. One or two of these guys is likely to go, right (for pitching!)?

I don't really understand the trade for Blaze Jordan except to use him as trade fodder in the off-season--he's really only 1st baseman, and with Contreras there for two more years (and maybe Herrera taking some reps there, as well as Burleson, if he stays), there's just no place for him. What the heck are they going to do with Arenado, who has virtually no trade value anymore? Then there's the catching dilemma--clearly Pages doesn't have a big league bat. But how many other catchers do they want to protect on the 40 man roster? How on earth do they protect all of the prospects they've accumulated on the 40 man roster period?

I don't remember a roster mess like this in my almost half century of being a Cardinals fan (though I did not pay attention to that kind of thing when I was a kid).

You’re absolutely right that it’s a mess – and a mess that Bloom will have to resolve. Multiple infielders will need to be traded, and one hopes those are veterans with no-trade clauses. The Arenado challenges are quite familiar by now, but the hope is that Bloom can find a path to moving him.

As for Contreras, he, too, has full no-trade protection and has thus far indicated no desire to waive it in order to find his way to a contender. On that front, here’s what he recently told Lynn Worthy of the P-D:

“And I’m not saying that business isn’t business, but as of right now, I’m going to stay here with the team. Like I said, I love challenges. This is one of the bigger challenges I’ve ever faced.”

Emphasis mine, but I’m willing to share it. The “as of right now” part qualifies as a hedge, at least to my parsing of Contreras’ words, and I expect Bloom will revisit the matter with Contreras this coming offseason.

As for Blaze Jordan, he’s a promising hitter with whom Bloom is familiar, and I think his addition assumes some easing of the traffic jam ahead of him. He’s just 22 and not yet on the 40-player roster, so there’s time yet.

Jay writes:

Under Mozeliak this team has a long history of assigning outcomes to their top prospects, then waiting and waiting and waiting for that player to achieve that outcome. Every flash of potential by that player would embolden their patience even more. And if the results didn’t match their prognostication they would continue to wait and wait, year after year, ignoring free agency, selling fans on upside, and praying for the cost-controlled lottery ticket to cash. And then one day Mo would find himself staring at a Dylan Carlson, confidence drained, value drained, and in the wake 2-3 lost seasons from waiting on a prospect that the organization sold themselves and fans on being a future star. But they were too proud to admit defeat and move on. When will this organization become more self-aware, more proactive, and capable of making the difficult decisions that could have kept this current roster from becoming so redundant and stale?

This is where the expanded and re-staffed player-development system will have an opportunity to prove itself under Bloom and Rob Cerfolio. It’s too early even for strong initial impressions, but I like much of what they’ve done in 2025 on this front, particularly the improved coordination and communication between the minors and St. Louis. There seems to be a shared vision that hasn’t been in place for some time. Time will tell, of course, but there’s cause for optimism on this front. The relentless attention and help with adjustments provided to Jordan Walker is one example in their favor, and he’s looked much better since returning in early July with a rebuilt swing.

Tony writes:

Is it reasonable to expect the Cardinals to finish 2025 with a winning record?

At this writing, they’re one game above .500, so I’d call that reasonable. The Cards are middle of the pack when it comes to remaining strength of schedule, so that shouldn’t tilt the scales one way or another. Like you, I find myself invested in a winning season. A bigger challenge will be not finishing with a negative run differential for a third straight season. They go into Saturday night’s game against the Cubs with a minus-11 mark for the year.

That’ll do it for this time, friends. Back soon.