Some (almost entirely positive) thoughts on the Cardinals' offense so far

Yes, I realize it's been just four games

Look, it’s challenging to write about baseball, especially one single team, when we’re but toenail-deep into a season. We see aberrant performances across the sprawl of a full 162-game campaign, and saying anything about anything when your thoughts are informed by a four-game sample is to indulge in the ridiculous. Yet here I go, doing just that.

Obviously, what follows comes with all the necessary qualifiers and dismissals. Yes, I’ll focus on a handful of things that do tend to take on meaning fairly early (albeit not this early), but the larger reality is that to talk about baseball after four games is to speak from one’s ass. You need to know that I know that this is what I’m doing. It’s just nice to talk about the team – the offense in particular – when there’s something positive to say, even if it’s all terribly premature. Onward, against all available better instincts …

Is it new hitting coach Brant Brown and his close offseason work with multiple core hitters? Is it a natural development arc for select players? Tiny-sample noise? A bit of all this? Whatever the reality, the Cardinals are indeed making quality contact at the plate, and this is grounds to be encouraged. Last season, St. Louis hitters ranked 18th among MLB’s 30 teams in average exit velocity (88.7 mph). In terms of barrel rate, which in this instance is the percentage of batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph and a launch angle between 10 and 35 degrees, they ranked 19th with a figure of 17.7%.

Thus far in 2025, however, they’ve enjoyed much better outputs. Cardinal hitters right now rank seventh in MLB with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph and fifth in MLB with a barrel rate of 23.6%. On top of all that, the Cardinals right now are third in MLB with an expected wOBA (a measure of “deserved” offensive production based on quality of contact) .375. Last season, they were 12th in xwOBA. This is promising stuff, a very early cause for optimism, and something to monitor moving forward.

Now for a brief bat-speed diversion. Jordan Walker – whose bat may be the single-most important implement of all when it comes to the organization’s long-term future – is off to an enviable start in (very) limited action. Bat speed has not and probably never will be an issue for Monsieur Walker, but I’d still like us to appreciate this early achievement: