The other way to think about the Cardinals' rotation needs

It's about which pitchers they add, yes, but it's also about which pitchers they replace

We’re all understandably preoccupied right now with which starting pitchers the Cardinals will eventually add to the fold this winter. As is typically the case, said preoccupations are a gumbo of and waking dreams likely never to be realized and plausible designs. Let’s take a quick break from all of that. Instead, let’s shift the focus to what the Cardinals will be replacing in the rotation going into the 2024 season. I think this is important because, well, it’s important, but also it’s grounds for optimism in the “things can only get better” sense.

This past season, the Cardinals gave starts to 10 different pitchers. That’s actually a modest figure, as MLB teams in 2023 gave at least one start to, on average, 12.7 pitchers. What stands out about the Cardinals’ rotation – and what undermined it to a great extent – is that none of those 10 starters made fewer than eight starts. In other words, these weren’t swing guys making two or three starts or short-lived call-ups taking one turn to provide a bridge during a rough stretch of schedule or even an opener working just the first frame. These were pitchers leaned upon for significant roles at various points of the season. 

Thanks to injuries, trade departures, performance-based role-toggling, and misplaced faith, the Cardinals gave a raft of starts to pitchers who won’t materially matter to the rotation’s hopes in 2024. Those pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Drew Rom. Wainwright is retired, and Flaherty is a free agent who was traded to Baltimore at the deadline. As for the possible returnees, Hudson and Woodford are non-tender candidates (and Memphis candidates if not cut loose), Liberatore is in line to be a reliever for at least the near-term, and Rom is presumably headed for Triple-A.

Among the returnees, none figures to carry anything like the rotation load he carried in 2023. I’d put the over-under on 2024 starts from this group at, oh, four or five. If the actual figure is much higher than that then the 2024 season has drifted awry or – under a more optimistic scenario – Liberatore has punched his way back into the rotation and found a higher level. As things are and as things are likely to be, I expect vanishingly few starts to be made from this group in the season to come. This brings us to the heart of the matter.