The recent series against the Cubs in Wrigley saw Cardinals starting pitchers ritually abused in the Friday opener and the Sunday rubber match. First, Miles Mikolas became the first pitcher in franchise history to allow six home runs in a single game, and then Fedde recorded just four outs before his complete and utter lack of command forced him from the start. In both cases, it’s not a blip.
Milolas over his last five starts has allowed 25 runs in 26 innings with an FIP of 7.08. This season, the opposite is slashing .295/.330/.526 against him. Since signing that $55.5 million extension prior to the 2023 season, Mikolas has pitched to a 5.08 ERA across 84 starts and struck out just 16.3% of opposing batters. He’s 37.
As for Fedde, he’s permitted 22 runs in 20 ⅓ innings over his last five starts, and he’s walked 12 batters, all unintentionally, over that same span. If you’ve watched him at all lately, you’ve no doubt noticed how much he’s struggling to locate his pitches – any of his pitches – which makes him resort to meatballs in hitter’s counts. K-BB% is a solid quick-and-dirty indicator of a pitcher’s future outlook, and Fedde’s mark of 2.9 ranks 70th out of 71 qualifiers right now. As bad as he’s been at run prevention, he’s been even worse at an underlying level.
In an ideal world, both Mikolas and Fedde would be defenestrated from the rotation. The more realistic path, at least for the time being, is to bump one of them to a low-leverage relief role in favor of Michael McGreevy. McGreevy has been mostly successful in his brief exposure to the highest level, and he’s 25 years old with 65 Triple-A starts in his dossier. If he’s not ready now, he never will be.
He is ready, of course, and the Cardinals know this. Katie Woo recently wrote:
It’s a unanimous decision, from the front office to the coaches to the player development staff, that McGreevy has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues and should be with the big-league club. And yet, he isn’t.
“(McGreevy) is a major-league pitcher, there’s just not a spot open,” Mozeliak said.
If only someone had the ability to change that.
Hear, hear.
McGreevy should quite obviously be in the rotation and be left there to take regular turns for the remainder of the season. However, I do want to gently apply the brake pedal for a moment. McGreevy likely is not a savior. As just noted, he’s already 25, and he’s never been a top-100 prospect according to any major evaluator. Across parts of five minor-league seasons, McGreevy has an ERA of 4.01, and he’s struck out 20.8% of opposing hitters. His velocity is middling by contemporary standards, and he figures to have problems handling the opposite side. To be sure, I think McGreevy can be a useful back-end presence in the rotation, which makes him a sorely needed presence. However, I don’t want how often I’ve called for him to be in St. Louis permanently to give the impression that I view him as a future ace. I don’t. He is, however, a better present and certainly future option than either Mikolas or Fedde, and he’s being deprived of something he’s plainly earned.
It’s a poor message to send to younger players like McGreevy – that merit will not carry the day when a veteran is ahead of you in the queue. So make the decision, have the difficult conversation, and improve the team’s chances. That’s part of the job for decision-makers like John Mozeliak. Do that job instead of lamenting that the situation is beyond your control when, in point of fact, the situation is very much within your control.
Now for specifics. I take no pleasure in saying this, but I lean toward keeping Mikolas in the rotation for now, at least in light of Fedde’s latest flop. That means bumping Fedde in favor of McGreevy. Mikolas may have been tipping against the Cubs, and he was effective after adjusting his delivery mid-start. Mikolas is inadequate, yes, but until Tekoah Roby or Quinn Mathews (who’s not on the 40-man) is ready – the lack of rotation depth in the upper minors is keenly felt right now – then the Cardinals aren’t really in position to replace both of these guys. Yes, there’s a discussion about moving Steven Matz into the rotation place of Mikolas, but Matz’s ability to work out of the bullpen at leverage, often for more than three outs at a time, is valuable to this team. As well, I expect Matz will be traded before July 31. So for now, I’d make Mikolas the fifth “starter,” pair him with an opener every time out, greatly limit his exposure to the opposing lineup for a third time in a given game (Oli Marmol has done a good job of this), and perhaps skip his turns when off days permit. When you’re doing all that, it’s a sure sign the pitcher in question doesn’t belong in the rotation. Mikolas indeed does not, but as I see it the Cardinals at this present juncture can’t replace two starters.
I also have one eye on the mounting innings totals of Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante. Liberatore is closing in on 100 innings pitched in this, his first season as a full-time member of the big-league rotation. His career high innings came in 2022 when he worked 149 ⅔ innings at Memphis and St. Louis combined. As for Pallante, he’s closing in on 100 frames, too, and his career high of 137 ⅔ innings between Memphis and St. Louis came last year. It’s not red flag territory yet, and Marmol has handled his younger rotation arms quite prudently. Still, it’s worth monitoring the effectiveness of Liberatore and Pallante as they venture into new workload territories.
Swapping out Fedde for McGreevy obviously does not fix everything, and that’s part of why I advocate exploring a trade for a young-ish, controllable starting pitcher like Edward Cabrera if the Marlins are indeed willing to move him. Cabrera is 27 and a former consensus top-100 prospect who isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season. As such, he meets the Cardinals need for both an immediate rotation upgrade and a long-term front-end presence.
This season, Cabrera has leveled up. He’s pitched to a career-best 131 ERA+ in 15 starts, and he’s backed it up with a career-best 3.88 FIP. He’s also shown improved control. This season, Cabrera has lowered his arm angle and swapped out some fastballs and changeups in favor of more sinkers and sliders. Hitters are whiffing 44.4% of the time on that slider, and his otherwise arm-side-run-heavy repertoire keeps the opposite hand in check. The velocity is big – 96.7 mph on the fastball and 96.5 mph on the sinker. In terms of Stuff+, which evaluates the overall quality of a pitcher’s offerings based on velocity, spin, and movement, Cabrera’s overall figure of 105 is tied for 20th highest among the 111 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings in 2025.
Whether it’s catcher depth in the minors, someone high-risk/high-reward like Tink Hence, lower-rung rising prospects such as Rainel Rodriguez and Yairo Padilla, some combination thereof can be a foundation. Throw in a future competitive-balance pick, which, yes, you’re allowed to trade. Really, I’d put no prospect other than JJ Wetherholt (he’s in Memphis now!) off limits in talks for Rodriguez. That includes Mathews or Roby, yes. The price for Cabrera will be high because he’s got a frontline profile and three full years of team control remaining. That price is worth paying, it says here.
It is of course very easy for me to demand such a thing. I’m not the one who has to make the trade. Given that it would involve parting with longer-term assets, Chaim Bloom, and not Mozeliak, should be the one who shapes the outgoing package of talents and establishes what a last, best offer would look like. Again, though, it’s not certain that the Marlins will part with Cabrera, and even if they do it’s not certain they’ll like any last, best offer the Cardinals could hypothetically make. A Cabrera trade is something I’d love to see, though, as it hits the sweet spot of improving the roster for a run at the third wild-card spot and also adding value for the mid- to long-term.
Would I feel good about this rotation in a wild-card race that, contrary to expectations, doesn’t include the Braves and barely includes the Diamondbacks?
Sonny Gray, RHP
Edward Cabrera, RHP
Matthew Liberatore, LHP
Andre Pallante, RHP
Michael McGreevy, RHP
Yes, I would. The afore-noted Libby-Pallante workload concerns are there, yes, as is the likelihood that the uncommon run of rotation health to date comes to an end at some point.
In the end, I’m probably wish-casting on Cabrera, but, friends, what are we if not our dreams? At the very least, let’s put McGreevy in the role he earned some time ago, and then make a call to Peter Bendix and the Marlins.
If it took Jordan Walker to get Cabrera, would you make the trade?
After watching Bernie's video today, I agree with his take that the Cards should take a look at what they can get in a trade by moving on from Nootbaar at the trade deadline. Perhaps not a Cabrera, but another major league ready starting pitcher to supplement the Cards rotation. As Bernie correctly pointed out, Nathan Church is on a fast rise through the system and performing well at Memphis and could replace Noot in the outfield. The only concern I'd have with this is n to letting Mo be the decision maker in this trade.