The uncertain trade deadline is one month away
And it's yet to be determined how Chaim Bloom and the Cards will approach it
I would love to be able to tell you what the Cardinals are going to do leading up to the Aug. 3 trade deadline, but, alas and alack, I cannot. This is because I don’t know what they’re going to do. The only thing I feel remotely confident in declaring is that they’re probably not going to be buyers on a headline-grabbing scale. I do feel there’s a significant chance that the Cardinals trade Lars Nootbaar leading up to the deadline, but in this instance I’d define significant chance as “somewhere between 20% and 80% likelihood.”
There’s a haze around this. As you know, lead decision-maker Chaim Bloom remains committed to the long-term goal of amassing and developing young talent, but the Cardinals’ status as surprise contenders in 2026 is the most obvious complicating factor. There’s a tension between honoring that relevance -- even with many quality opponents and not many off days in the offing -- and proceeding as planned with trade discussions regarding Dustin May, Nootbaar, and select others.
This, then, is a good spot for this week’s temperature check (going into Friday’s matinee at Wrigley):
Record: 45-39, third place in NL Central, in third wild card spot
Run differential: minus-4
Third-order record: 40.9-43.1
FanGraphs playoff odds: 36.5%
Strength of schedule: .504 opponents’ average winning percentage, ninth in MLB
Remaining strength of schedule: .513 opponents’ average winning percentage, fifth in MLB
Average home attendance per game: 28,801; 16th in MLB
That current playoff position isn’t the only headwind working against a deep deadline sell. There’s also May’s recent struggles and present status. This past winter, the Cardinals signed May to a one-year, $12 million pact with a mutual option for 2027 -- one that, like most mutual options, probably means nothing -- as a reclamation project and possible deadline trade chit. Because of an unfortunate run of injuries on and off the field, May came into this season having been compromised in one way or another for roughly the last half decade. In 2026, though, he’s enjoyed a velocity rebound, and some mechanical tweaks have allowed him to deepen and alter his repertoire. All that plus his very modest salary should add up to a strong deadline market. Things recently, though, may have changed, at least until further notice.
