There's reason to be optimistic about Masyn Winn as the Cardinals' starting shortstop in 2024

Yes, he struggled after his promotion to St. Louis, but there's more to it than just the surface-level numbers

Image: DALL-E

According to both word and deed, Masyn Winn is lined up to open the 2024 season as the Cardinals’ starting shortstop. Winn, who turns 22 during spring training, will still have his rookie status intact for 2024 even though he was the primary shortstop in St. Louis following his mid-August call-up. It’s that 37-game audition last season that both informs the future and raises concerns. Peer a bit more deeply, though, and there’s cause for optimism when it comes to Winn's capacity to seize the job for good in the upcoming season. 

First, the background. Winn was a second-round choice out of Kingwood High School in Houston as part of what may turn out to be a historic Cardinals 2020 draft class. A two-way standout as a prepster, Winn was drafted as such, and the Cardinals paid an above-slot bonus at No. 54 to buy him out of a commitment to the University of Arkansas. Winn dropped jaws with the glove and the bat as a middle infielder and on the mound touched the upper 90s with his fastball and boasted strong secondary offerings. Going into the draft, my compadre and CBS Sports colleague R.J. Anderson said of him, “If a position player selected outside of the first round is going to turn into a star, it might be Winn.” 

Winn’s professional career as a pitcher lasted all of one (perfect) inning at Peoria in 2019, and instead the organization put his full focus on developing as a shortstop. Develop he did. Winn authored an impressive trajectory, particularly given the complications of the COVID-compromised 2020 season that served as his foundation. Following a 2022 campaign in which he put up strong numbers at High-A and quite respectable numbers as Double-A as a 20-year-old, Winn cracked the list of top 50 overall prospects at MLB.com and Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus ranked him No. 30. We ranked him 33rd among all prospects. Oh, and speaking of 2022, he enjoyed his first viral moment when he uncoiled a 100.5 mph throw during the Futures Game at Dodger Stadium: 

Winn’s stock ticked up further with a strong major-league camp this past spring, and for a time it looked like he might crack the Opening Day roster alongside fellow 2020 draft class traveler Jordan Walker. Instead, Winn was dispatched to Memphis for his first exposure to Triple-A. Winn suffered some fits and starts at the highest rung of the minors, but by May he had found his level for good.

That brings us to the aforementioned Aug. 18 call-up to St. Louis. The Cardinals were squarely out of contention by that point, and that allowed them to give Winn regular run at shortstop without worrying about how he’d affect game outcomes. As you’re no doubt aware, things did not go swimmingly for Winn. In 137 plate appearances for St. Louis last season, Winn slashed a meager .172/.230/.238. Yes, he was a 21-year-old debutante manning the most premium position on the diamond, but it’s hard not to be disappointed by his performance at the plate. 

Now here’s the part where I try to make you less disappointed by his performance at the plate. Winn coming up through the minors showed an occasional tendency for starting slow at a new level and then adapting after the first month or so. That’s what he did in Low-A in 2021, and as noted upstream that’s also what he did last year at Triple-A. It also happened after his promotion to St. Louis, and what’s more encouraging is that it happened not only in terms of surface-level measurements but also at the fundamental and underlying layers that project future performance. Dig the following numbers and the trends they imply: