What history says about No. 7 overall draft picks

In contrast with their long history of lower picks, the Cardinals in 2024 will have a rare opportunity near the top end of the draft

Image: DALL-E

One of the leading sub-sub-plots of the Cardinals’ offseason is their securing their highest draft pick in more than a quarter-century. Yes, thanks largely to the Cards’ 91-loss campaign this past season, they will pick seventh in the 2024 MLB Draft. 

Like other teams that struggled in 2023, the Cardinals earlier this month were subjected to the relatively new draft lottery, and they experienced some poor luck in their first and ideally last trip through the lotto process. Going into the lottery, the Cardinals had the strongest shot at the No. 5 pick, but the Guardians and Reds defied the assigned odds and jumped ahead of them (and others) to nab the No. 1 and No. 2 picks, respectively. That, in turn, dropped the Cardinals two spots from their expected position. 

Again, though, it’s higher than they’ve picked in the draft since way back yonder in 1998, when they plucked J.D. Drew with the fifth selection. As for the Cards’ current scouting director, the highly regarded Randy Flores, he’s never had a pick higher than No. 18 in 2021 (Michael McGreevy was the choice). This will be unexplored territory for his scouting regime in the promising sense of the term.

On another level, there’s pressure to make good on the selection not only because it’s an opportunity the Cardinals haven’t had in so long, but also because they forfeited their second-round choice as part of the Sonny Gray free-agent signing. Gray received a qualifying offer from the Twins, and since he refused it and signed a deal with another team for more than $50 million, that other team (our Redbirds) was dinged a high pick. So after Flores makes his choice for No. 7, he won’t pick again until No. 82 (or No. 83, should the Cubs fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger and earn a comp pick before the third round). 

As for No. 7, what does history say about it? After crunching data available at the lovely and talented Baseball-Reference.com, here’s what we learn about the history of top 10 selections throughout MLB draft history (i.e., 1965 onward). To get an idea of this, we’ll look at the combined total WAR (What’s this?) at the major-league level for each pick slot and also the average career WAR per draftee at that given spot. Here’s what we get: