Winter Meetings recap

The Cardinals during the recent three-day conclave in Orlando got the short end of the lottery draw, made a Rule 5 pick, and laid groundwork for trades in the coming weeks

From the Cardinals’ standpoint, the recently concluded Winter Meetings – MLB’s flagship offseason event – was not much of a headline-grabber. That, however, doesn’t mean it was all without importance.

First, the bad news. In Tuesday’s MLB draft lottery, the Cardinals saw their projected slot fall five spots from No. 8 to No. 13. Consider this to be, if you will, karmic payback for last year, when the Cardinals’ saw their projected draft slot improve from No. 13 to No. 5 – where they chose Liam Doyle – thanks to those lottery outcomes. If you wish to further balance the ledger, let’s appreciate the prior year, when they had the good fortune of seeing JJ Wetherholt fall to them at No. 7. That No. 7 pick, by the way, was just outside the range of defined “lottery picks,” which is why they were even eligible for a second straight lottery slot this year. As well, 13 is still a historically high pick for the Cards. Outside the last two years, they haven’t picked as high as 13th in the draft since 2008, when they tabbed Brett Wallace at, yes, No. 13.

Given that 2026 college and high school seasons are still months away, it’s premature to do much in the way of “mocking” the upcoming draft. For what it’s worth, though, Jim Callis at MLB.com recently assigned University of Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia to St. Louis at No. 13. Baseball America, meanwhile, has the Cardinals going with California prep shortstop and Stanford commit Tyler Spangler. In related matters, the 2026 draft is considered to be heavy on talented shortstops, including consensus No. 1 pick Roch Cholowsky of UCLA. Yes, the Cardinals have a potential franchise cornerstone at short in Gold Glove winner Masyn Winn, but the nature of the MLB draft is such that teams always take whom they perceive as the best talent available without regard for roster needs at the highest level.

Obviously, we all need something to dream on, so let’s do that now. In all, 55% of No. 13 overall picks have reached the majors, and those who did make it to the highest level have averaged a 13.1 career WAR. By comparison, No. 12 overall picks to reach the majors have averaged 8.4 WAR, and No. 14 picks check in with 7.2 WAR on average. Such slot comparisons aren’t particularly meaningful at this range, but let’s note and appreciate it all the same. In all, nine of 61 No. 13 picks have put up a WAR of 20.0 or higher in the bigs. Here’s a rundown of those best No. 13 picks, in order of career WAR (including an old friend to be named):

1. Manny Ramirez, Indians, 1991, 69.3 WAR

2. Chris Sale, White Sox, 2010, 57.3 WAR

3. Frank Tanana, Angels, 1971, 57.1 WAR

4. Trea Turner, Padres, 2014, 41.9 WAR

5. Paul Konerko, Dodgers, 1994, 28.0 WAR

6. Garry Templeton, Cardinals, 1974, 27.9 WAR

7. Brandon Nimmo, Mets, 2011, 26.1 WAR

8. Gary Nolan, Reds, 1966, 25.9 WAR

9. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays 2003, 24.4 WAR

To state the obvious, these are the exceptions, and there’s not a great chance the Cardinals are going to get this level of value regardless of whom they nab at 13, but, hey, high-level value at that slot is indeed possible. Let us now cling to the possible rather than the probable.

Looking further ahead, by slipping to 13th position this year, the Cardinals will be lottery-eligible again next year, assuming they don’t make the postseason in 2026. Now that they’re revenue-sharing recipients, the Cardinals would also theoretically be eligible to pick in the lottery in advance of the 2028 draft, but let’s hope the ongoing rebuild has yielded delicious on-field fruits by that time.