Behold: My preferred Cardinals Opening-Day roster

But my preferred roster probably won’t be the actual roster

In a matter of days, the Cardinals will unfurl their 26-player active roster for the start of the 2025 season. I can hardly expect their roster decisions to match up with my own precious inclinations unless I lay out those precious inclinations for all to see and heed. I shall do that now.

While I have a strong preference for carrying fewer than 13 pitchers so as to deepen the bench and pinch-hitting/platoon opportunities, I’m yielding to reality and going with a 13-13 hitter-pitcher split. Let’s do the hitters first, starters and bench:

C: Iván Herrera
1B: Willson Contreras
2B: Nolan Gorman
3B: Nolan Arenado
SS: Masyn Winn
LF: Lars Nootbaar
CF: Victor Scott II
RF: Jordan Walker
DH: Alex Burleson (platoon with Luken Baker)

Super utility: Brendan Donovan

C: Pedro Pagés
1B/DH: Luken Baker
INF/OF: Jose Barrero

Straightaway, let’s talk about Scott’s conspicuous presence above. He’s in the final stages of a battle for the center–field job with Michael Siani and a “bat-first” alignment that pushes Nootbaar to center and Donovan to left field. Siani is the best fielder of the bunch, and he’s coming off a brilliant 2024 with the glove. We do need to acknowledge, however, that it’s effectively one not-quite-full season of data for Siani, and it’s possible his true talent level with the glove is somewhere a bit south of “Devon White on his best day ever.” The larger point, though, is that Siani can’t hit, and that makes him a poor fit for a lineup with a lot of uncertainties in it and coming off a 2024 in which the Cardinals struggled to score runs.

As for Nootbaar in center, it’s a defensive alignment that causes me concern behind a rotation that’s probably not going to strike out many batters when Sonny Gray isn’t on the bump. As well, lodging Donovan in the non-premium position of left field eats away at a major component of his overall value, which is his ability to provide plus glove-work at multiple positions.

Really, though, this is about Scott, the work he’s done on his swing, and the dominant spring he’s enjoyed. I’m aware of the array of problems with reading too much into spring performance, but it’s the Cardinals and not I who brand these as competitions. Scott has won that competition with ease. In addition to showing improved defense in center, perhaps a consequence of his work with Jon Jay, Scott truly looks and performs like a different hitter at the plate. In 46 Grapefruit League plate appearances this spring, he’s slashed .359/.457/.692 with three homers, a triple, two doubles and seven walks against eight strikeouts. While we don’t have ball tracking for every single batted ball in spring training, those of Scott’s that have been tracked paint a similarly impressive portrait – a .488 xwOBA versus a .481 wOBA.

Some are no doubt going to say something along the lines of, “Well, Scott also had a strong spring last year, and look what happened.” Last spring, though, Scott slashed .317/.404/.366 with an xwOBA of .358 and only one extra-base hit in 47 plate appearances. That’s a line built almost entirely on batting average and suggestive of little in the way of raw power. Scott’s struggles to start the 2024 regular season are well known, but he was a year younger, had skipped Triple-A entirely, and had a swing that was not constructed for power. He’s since incorporated a stride into his swing, and offseason work with new hitting Brant Brown has introduced further refinements. Scott now has a swing that’s tailored to do damage on contact, and that makes him a different hitter with a different ceiling. We haven’t even touched his potential to be an elite, game-altering threat on the bases. He’s 24 now. It’s time. He’s earned the job, and he’s earned runway (I don’t want to hear any talk of being overmatched if Scott has an OPS in the .400s by Tax Day).

Now comes the essential matter of making it work. The Cardinals know that Scott needs to be a regular presence in the lineup for developmental purposes regardless of whether he’s in St. Louis or Memphis. I’ve written before that the failure to trade Arenado has cascading effects in the outfield, which becomes crowded with Scott on the roster. Had Arenado been traded to Houston or Boston or elsewhere, then Gorman would’ve been at third, Donovan at second, Nootbaar in left, and center open for occupation. Alas and alack, that did not come to pass (although it’s still possible at some point before the July 31 trade deadline).

Things as they are, rostering Scott and playing him on a daily basis – again, a necessary consequence of rostering him – means others will lose playing time. Rather than concentrate the loss of playing time on someone like Burleson, who’s another young-ish player in need of consistent reps at the highest level, I prefer a more balanced approach. Basically everyone who’s not a catcher is going to contribute playing time for Donovan, who in turn is back to a super-utility role in order to create space for Scott. Donovan will see time at second, third, left, first, and DH. He can also see occasional duty at short, where he’s played sparingly in the past. Maybe it’s more than sparingly if Winn’s recent wrist issues persist. Basically, Donovan will be a regular presence in the lineup – and a constant presence against right-handed starting pitchers – while playing all over the diamond. Arenado, Contreras, Burleson, Nootbaar, and others will all be given “Donovan days” off, probably a bit more than they’d prefer, in order to ease the logjam. Less often, Gorman or Walker will sit and create a spot. Mostly, I’d advocate for Arenado’s being the most frequent recipient of these unsolicited off days. He’s aging and not that far removed from back issues. He also strikes me as the kind of hitter who could benefit from “mental reset” days given his intensity and recent history of struggles at the plate. I’m in no way suggesting that Arenado be used as a part-time player or light half of a platoon. Rather, he won’t be playing as much as he usually does when healthy.

Again, none of this is ideal, but Oli Marmol is accustomed to being handed complicated rosters. I’m confident he can find the best path, even if it means having an uncomfortable conversation with Arenado. This dispersing of off days to make space for Scott strikes me as a better solution than making Burleson in essence a bench player.

Elsewhere, I favor Barrero as the lead infield reserve over José Fermín. Barrero, in camp on an NRI, will need to be added to the 40-player roster, but there are ways to get there. Zack Thompson’s lat injury could land him on the 60-day injured list, which would clear a space. Alternatively, Michael Helman is presently taking up a spot on the 40, and his contract could be designated for assignment (I’m not overly concerned about losing Helman on waivers). I’m a Barrero advocate because the soon-to-be-27-year-old is a former highly regarded prospect (Baseball America ranked him No. 33 overall going into the 2022 season) who never realized his promise with the Reds and then the Rangers. There’s upside there, and late blooming is always within the range of possibilities with a player like Barrero. As well, unlike Fermín Barrero can capably man shortstop and play center.

With regard to Barrero, his options situation is worth noting, in that he’s out of them. He’s in camp on a minor-league contract, which means he can begin the season in the minors without any procedural hurdles. If, however, he begins the season in St. Louis, then he’ll have to clear waivers should brass later decide he needs to head to Memphis. That, though, is a risk worth taking for what his positional flexibility and bench-bat upside mean for the club this season. Fermín, meantime, has an option year remaining.

Elsewhere, yes, Herrera’s offensive capabilities mean he should be the regular catcher. Now moving on to the pitchers.