I suppose we should talk about the CBA negotiations
There's limited cause for optimism to be found within this necessary bit of drudgery
The Cardinals find themselves in playoff position in a thoroughly muddled National League wild card fray. However, they're also just 14-15 since the start of May, and they've won just one of their five series. The run differential continues to creep downward.
On the upside, the offense may be poised to improve. Catcher Jimmy Crooks was recently recalled from Memphis, and he’ll be the primary catcher moving forward, at least once the Cardinals get clear of this recent glut of lefty starting pitchers they’ve faced. That’s welcome news, as Pedro Pagés, for all his defensive and leadership merits (and the fact that he seems like a very swell guy and teammate), just can’t hit, and the top-heavy Cardinals lineup badly needs some length to it. Crooks is coming off a scorching performance at Triple-A this season, one rich with home runs and walks. His strikeout issues improved in May, and as I recently pointed out those strikeout issues were in large measure confined to platoon-disadvantaged spots. Crooks projects as a substantial offensive upgrade over Pagés, and he’s made excellent strides behind the plate. As a former major-college draftee who’s 24 years old and has more than 600 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, he should be as ready as he’ll ever be.
What also figures to help the lineup is the return of Lars Nootbaar. Coming off bilateral heel surgery in the off-season, he’ll be activated from the 60-day injured list on Friday and, presumably, be in the lineup that night against the Reds. Nootbaar and the Cardinals both believe that heel malady cost him at the plate and at the field in 2025, and for what it’s worth he slashed .257/.409/.543 across 44 plate appearances on his just-completed minor league rehab assignment. Nootbaar plus the recent roster addition of Nelson Velázquez should greatly improve the left field situation and give the Cardinals the option of making Nathan Church the primary center fielder once he returns from his shoulder strain. (For the moment, we’ll table any discussion of the magma-hot Joshua Báez as the center fielder of the present and future.)
With the pitching gradually appearing to level up, a lengthening of the lineup would be the ideal complement. Crooks and Nootbaar -- and to a more limited extent, Velázquez -- should help that happen.
That brings us to this week’s temperature check ...
Record: 32-28, second place in NL Central, tied for first/second wild card spot
Run differential: minus-12
Third-order record: 29.5-30.5
FanGraphs playoff odds: 26.4%
Strength of schedule: .510 opponents’ average winning percentage, fifth in MLB
Remaining strength of schedule: .509 opponents’ average winning percentage, seventh in MLB
Average home attendance per game: 28,176; 16th in MLB
And now let’s do what must be done and talk about the leading off-the-field matter of the moment.
As you’re probably aware, the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) -- the accord that governs the working relationship between players as represented by the MLBPA and club owners -- expires on Dec. 1 of this year. At that point, owners are expected to lock out the players if there’s not a new CBA in place or close to the finish line.
While negotiations have been running in the background for some time, they began in a formal sense in early May. Late May brought us the opening proposals from each side. If the spirit moves you, you can read about the union’s opening offer here, and the league’s first “almost comically light on specifics” proposal here. As expected, owners are proposing a salary cap with a salary floor and a 50-50 revenue split with players that, thanks to carve-outs, isn’t actually a 50-50 split and may even amount to a decline in total player salary. The players, meantime, want a tax floor to go with the luxury tax ceiling that’s been in place for years, and they’re also asking to roughly double the minimum salary (which would necessarily make getting to a salary floor less of a leap for teams in violation). As is the nature of opening offers, they’re a mix of starting points and posturing and nothing that either side actually expects to get in those earliest forms. The real negotiating starts now, as we see the two sides in subsequent proposals and counter-proposals soften or even vacate many of those initial asks.
