Reader Mailbag, Part 2: Bullpen talk, VS2 pessimism, Nolan Gorman optimism, the wild card race, that pesky run differential, the trade deadline, the looming CBA battle, and more
Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly correct and coherent
Part 1 of this mailbag is behind us, and now it’s time for Part 2. Stripped to the waist in righteous solidarity, let us proceed ...
First up, some bullpen talk.
Jay writes:
Svanson has allowed 1 or more runs in 11 of his 18 (61%) appearances. Is he out of options? Otherwise, watching him toil in the majors, no matter how much Bloom/Oli believe in him, makes no sense.
Eric writes:
With the team playing above expectations does it make sense to think about changing up the bullpen, since it is a clear weak spot? For example, why not bring up younger pitchers and give them an opportunity or trade lower level prospects for veteran relievers who might provide an upgrade?
Since the top question was submitted, Svanson has fared better, and overall his numbers for May are pretty strong. In six appearances this month, he’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA with six strikeouts and two walks. During his Sunday appearance in the series finale against the Royals, Svanson averaged 97.3 mph with his fastball and touched 99. He’s also gotten some whiffs with his sweeper. Svanson does have options remaining, but I expect he’ll remain in St. Louis as long as he keeps his May run going, at least in the general sense of things. I don’t necessarily believe he’s some kind of core piece long-term, but I can see why the club wants to continue test-driving his stuff.
If I could defenestrate a presently rostered reliever, I’d opt for Justin Bruihl. In 22 appearances and 19 2/3 innings, he’s got a 5.03 ERA and an FIP of 5.13, and he’s walked more batters than he struck out. Bruihl turns 29 in late June, has a career ERA+ of 89, and is on his sixth organization. Stuff models generally like his shapes, but the results have never been there. I realize this won’t happen, but I’d rather go with a one-lefty bullpen than keep Bruihl on the active. I wouldn’t mind seeing Brycen Mautz, who’s already on the 40-player roster, called up and used out of the pen as the second lefty and as a pitcher with multi-inning potential in the role. However, the Cardinals might prefer to keep him in the Memphis rotation for developmental purposes.
There are just limited opportunities for “churn” right now. Gordon Graceffo is the other current reliever able to be optioned to the minors, and he’s not going anywhere right now as a bulk arm with a sub-2.00 ERA.
Brian writes:
There was a dust-up on X.com the other day about how much credit Mozeliak deserves for the Cards’ recent success.* Seeing as Mo is now gone, it may just be an academic exercise, but I like academic exercises, and I’m interested in how the last few years - and possibly the next few - might color Mo’s legacy. Where do you come out on all this? * - I know, I know - it’s only a quarter of a season, but there are rays of hope and players who seem to be taking real steps forward.
I think “some” is both accurate and vague enough to allow an array of interpretations. A number of Mozeliak acquisitions that pre-date Chaim Bloom’s arrival as an advisor have played important roles thus far in 2026. However, I do doubt that the pre-Bloom front office would’ve been able to notch some of the developmental wins we’ve seen with those same players.
While I found some of Mo’s final moves to be fairly uninspired, I think the biggest fault lies with the DeWitts and their neglect of the player-development system. One could argue that it’s part of Mo’s job to persuade ownership to spend at such a fundamentally vital level, and that’s probably a fair criticism. I give Mo a measure of credit for the current roster while also doubting that the season thus far would be a success if Bloom had not come in and remade and grown the front office so significantly.
Chad writes:
Recently, in the Seeing Red podcast, Will Leitch pointed out how weak the NL wildcard race is. Obviously, a lot can and will change in the coming months, but at this point, it’s three tiers:
* good teams (+30 or more run differentials): Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates
* mediocre teams (+/- ten run differentials): Cards, Marlins, Nationals, Padres
* bad teams (-20 or more run differentials): Diamondbacks, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Rockies
How do you see it playing out? I realize the folly of doing so only one-quarter into the season, but I find myself becoming more optimistic about the Cards’ chances and I need a reality check.
The only assumption I’m willing to make right now is that the NL Central runner-up is going to claim one of those three wild card berths. After that, it gets hazy. The Phillies are back above .500, and the Mets have also enjoyed improved fortunes of late. The D-backs can also be bucketed in with them as a team within hailing distance of relevance but saddled by a solidly negative run differential. I realize the Pirates are in the black, but I’m not quite sold on them as a team that’s going to clock a win total in high 80s or low 90s. I just spy too many regression candidates in the lineup.
Elsewhere, the Padres have been about as lucky as the Cardinals have been in terms of out-playing the run differential. Run differential aside, the Phillies, to my eyes, seem like the biggest threat to the Cards, who are presently in that third and final wild card spot. That said, it’s the middle of May, and many twists and turns are sure to come.
As for the Cardinals and their efforts to improve that run differential and, thus, their forward-looking projection, we’ll need to see the recent uptick in rotation K% continue, and we’ll also need Lars Nootbaar to look like something close to his 2022-23 self upon his return from bilateral heel surgery. That’s a partial listing, of course. I’m not going to put a specific figure on it, but right now I’d give the Cards a 30-40% chance of making the playoffs. I do need to see the run differential and third-order record improve before I’m willing to go much higher, at least while it’s still relatively early.
Now some Aug. 3 trade deadline talk …
Michael writes:
The underlying statistics and youth of this team still strongly suggest that they will end up, at BEST, a .500 team. And that’s if they don’t have an injury to someone who has been a big contributor in the first quarter of the season. But as summer approaches it’s hard not to dream.
So my question is this: how good would the Cardinals have to be (both in absolute terms and relative to the other NL teams) on July 30 for Bloom not to ship players like Stanek and O’Brien (and maybe Nootbaar if he comes back and has good trade value by then) for a big prospect haul that would make them the team to beat in 2028 and maybe a few years after?
If they are still in the wildcard hunt, it would be a big blow to morale to lose someone like O’Brien, especially--especially if he continues to pitch like he has. Maybe mess up the clubhouse vibe. But if a true contender is desperate for relief pitching down the stretch, he could land someone with huge upside potentially.
Anyway, I hope that the Cardinals have played themselves into a spot where the front office has such decisions to make!
Anthony writes:
We’ve had a better than expected first quarter of the season, and the schedule for the second quarter seems to suggest we’ll remain competitive. July’s schedule is tough, particularly the first two weeks leading up to the All-Star break. If the Cardinals remain over .500 at the ASB, will their plans to be sellers at the trade deadline proceed, or will they also do some buying?
I see the vision when it comes to a Riley O’Brien trade because he’s 31 and very light on track record when it comes to thriving in the majors. That said, he’s not going to be arb-eligible until after the 2027 season, and I can see the Cardinals keeping him for that reason. To the meat of your question, my guess is that if the Cardinals are in playoff position, then it will prevent a major selloff unless there are reinforcements at Memphis thriving and plainly ready to fill the roles of any outgoing talents.
As for buying at the deadline, I can’t imagine it happens unless it’s for middle-relief depth or some kind of assumption of salary obligations that lessens the cost in return. Bloom almost certainly isn’t going to acquire any player at the deadline who exacts a major price in terms of prospects. The biggest deadline “tell” from Bloom and the rest of the front office will be if they don’t ship off guys like O’Brien, Nootbaar, and Dustin May. That would indicate they’re taking the 2026 team’s chances seriously while not compromising the rebuilt farm system.
Moving on to Vic Scott and Gorman …
Keith writes:
I realize it’s only May 11 but I am really concerned about the lack of offensive production from Victor Scott and Nolan Gorman. I’m guessing if the team wasn’t competitive, they might both be given the entire season to turn things around. but as long as the team is competing for a playoff spot, if these two don’t start producing, what’s the alternative to finding more product production? Is it Blaze and Baez?
Jay writes:
Despite the hype surrounding him—perhaps the most for any player since Nootbaar returned from the WBC—it seems Victor Scott is not, in fact, Willie Mays, but more Willie Mays Hayes. My question; where’s Oli on this now?
Scott’s been a real disappointment this season. Coming into 2026, he probably needed to hit the ball on the ground more often to take better advantage of his elite speed, and he’s done that -- his ground-ball percentage is 59.5%, up sharply from 44% last season. However, that’s resulted in an OBP of .248, and that’s not an acceptable figure. Remove his bunt attempts, and his OBP is still just .252. Look at his BABIP on grounders -- bunt attempts excluded -- and it’s not greatly out of line with league norms: .231 versus an MLB-wide mark of .238. He’s 25 and has fewer than 1,000 PAs at the highest level, so I’m hardly ready to rule him out. Increasingly, though, Scott’s offensive profile is making him look like a fourth or fifth outfielder. My expectation at this point is that Nathan Church will be the primary in center field once Nootbaar returns and takes over in left.
I’m a bit more optimistic about Gorman, overall at least. I’m particularly impressed with the strides he’s made defensively. It’s getting to the point at which I don’t think Marmol needs to sub him out in the late innings when the Cards are leading. Statcast in 2026 puts Gorman in the 83rd percentile in Outs Above Average, and honestly that squares with the eye test.
Offensively, there’s this to like about Gorman:
2024: 37.6 K%
2025: 33.8 K%
2026: 27.7 K%
Contact has been Gorman’s leading issue throughout his MLB career, and he’s continued to whittle it down. He needs more slug this season, but let’s note he’s got strong percentile rankings in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and how often he finds the ideal launch angle range off the bat. Based on how his PAs have looked lately, I get a gut-level feeling that he’s about to go on a heater. In any event, I’ve seen enough from Gorman to believe he shouldn’t be in danger of losing his job in 2026 — current standings aside, it’s still a “runway” year for guys like Gorman. I’m not sure Blaze Jordan, as impressive as his bat has been since last September, can handle third base in the majors.
Matt writes:
Greetings! Trying to keep my expectations lowered a little after the past few years of fandom with the team, but it’s hard when you watch the growth of Walker this season and how he is laying off the low and outside stuff for the most part while punishing the mistakes! Playoff hunt would be nice, but it’s a long season and a few on the roster should\will be traded off in July so we’ll see where Bloom, Ollie, and Co land this thing at the end of the season.
Catcher position decision is coming up quick with Rodriguez reaching AA Springfield already at age 19, but 0 home runs with *just* an 800 OPS in 12 at bats must mean he’s cooling off! Kidding aside, just glancing through his stats and he’s absolutely destroying lefties. Should be fun to see where this position ends up in a couple of years. Bernal was the 2025 MiLB Gold Glove winner and is becoming an afterthought with so much talent showing up in the depth charts.
Main question to you is on if you’ve heard anything about the upcoming CBA battle? I’m just dumbfounded on the whole billionaires fighting with millionaires over a larger piece of the pie. The talent on the field should get a larger piece I’ve always thought. I don’t see any DeWitt jerseys anywhere in the stadium. Owners get more and more tax credits whenever they “request” a new stadium from the city (Royals were going to move to Kansas if they didn’t get a new stadium from the city and don’t get me started on the Sacramento A’s owner!), plus are building out the potential revenue streams around said stadiums. The players earn their money on the field, with bigger stars also using their name for other revenue. The owners earn their money from the gate and the “Ballpark Villages” around their stadiums. It’s very complicated I’m sure, but also seems dumb in a very general way. I know a few older fans that never came back after the 94-95 strike, except a few to watch it until Ripken set the absolutely unbelievable consecutive games played streak, and then stopped watching. MLB tried everything, including allowing the steroid era to flourish, to try and bring the fans back. It was bad baseball and I would hate to see that happen to the sport again…especially now when St Louis is becoming relevant again after a very short time.
Thanks for the amazing work you do!
And thank you, Matt! As you intuit, every CBA negotiation is at heart a battle over money -- specifically, how the league’s revenues will be divided up between players and owners. The owners are again going to push for a salary cap even though there’s just no relationship between caps and competitive parity. As always, caps are a means to suppress labor costs, and in MLB’s case owners are sensitive to the idea that being a non-capped league is hurting franchise values (although the Padres’ recent sale for $3.9 billion would not seem to support that notion). One of the worst things to happen to MLB is the rise of the “portfolio holding” model of ownership in which winning baseball games is secondary to long-term investment considerations. Those two things, of course, aren’t even at odds with one another. Owners have always wanted to bring players to heel at the negotiating table, but time was when most of them seemed to care about, you know, winning the World Series. That’s not the case anymore, and it drives many of the problems with baseball right now.
I do not think they’ll succeed in their latest push for a cap, but I do think Rob Manfred as valet to owners will get something like a stiffer luxury tax and drastically altered revenue sharing that shifts more toward a national model (the latter will probably cause an internal fight among owners as a backdrop to the CBA talks). I’m guessing we’ll get another round of playoff expansion to 14 teams (groan), and an international draft may even come out of the wash. The owners will almost certainly lock out the players after the current CBA expires in December, but my feeling, at least this far out, is that we won’t lose any games. That’s subject to change, of course.
The possible shift toward a national-revenue model, driven largely by pooled media rights starting in 2028, could benefit a team like the Cardinals, but only if ownership is willing to put those expanded revenues into the on-field product. While I like to think the DeWitts have learned about the hazards of disinvestment since the COVID years, we have plenty of examples of owners who are content to pocket shared revenues and pretend they can’t afford a better roster, all while those shared revenues are basically covering their player payroll. Let’s hope BD3, who may have control by then, isn’t like a lot of the “legacy” owners we’ve seen over the years.
OK, friends, that’s all for this time. Thanks again for your mailbag contributions.
Before you go, please do drink deeply of this color-television footage all over again:
Stay healthy, defiant-
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