Reader Mailbag, Part 2: Lots of trade deadline talk, organizational weak spots, fixing the All-Star Game, Iván Herrera's future, and more
Readers have questions, writer has answers -- some of them possibly correct and coherent
With the Cardinals off to a 2-5 start to the second half of the season, some group therapy is in order. We’ve already undertaken Part 1 of this mailbag, and below you’ll find Part 2. Forthwith!
Jay writes:
Even as a playoff-starved fan, I know that making the playoffs can’t be the primary focus this year. Having said that, I think we all believe this retool is much further along than expected. So, if this team is in this same position (fringe playoff team) a year from now, is it unreasonable to expect them to be open to bigger moves, even adding significant payroll via trade?
No, I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all, especially if by July 2027 the rotation is being populated by one or more of the young ready/nearly ready arms like Quinn Mathews, Richard Fitts, Hunter Dobbins, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Brandon Clarke, Liam Doyle, Cooper Hjerpe, Mason Molina, Ixan Henderson, and so forth with some of the remaining names providing immediate depth. Having a pitching surfeit from which you can deal opens up a lot of deadline avenues to address major weaknesses. The idea, of course, is to not have major weaknesses, and the system is now in such shape that internal solutions will be possibilities.
As for payroll, I think some of that will have to do with how the ongoing CBA negotiations shake out. I expect that we’re going to emerge from this labor fight with a more generous sharing of local revenues, which should be to the benefit of teams like the Cardinals. You’d always prefer to be willing to take on salary in a trade rather than part with premium prospects. The DeWitts this past winter invested cash in order to add to the system in the trades of Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado, so perhaps they’ll be willing to invest to “protect” the system when the time comes to make buyer sorts of trades.
Eric writes:
What should we expect from the front office at the trade deadline? I hope they do not view this team as a contender. Shouldn’t they continue with the rebuild by trading May, Romero, and Nootbaar at a minimum? I would also trade O’Brien unless his performance slips the next few weeks. I think the worst thing they can do is stand pat and try for the third wild card spot with a roster that would be the underdog in every playoff game they play. Trading pitchers would also create opportunities for young arms to pitch some innings this season.
I expect you’ll get your wish. As I’ve said before, I like the idea of extending Dustin May, but I can easily understand if the front office decides trading him before the Aug. 3 deadline is the more prudent tack. It’s probably especially prudent if the Tigers opt to keep Tarik Skubal through the deadline and make a push for a third-straight playoff berth. I know May’s been inconsistent at best lately, but I think teams will see his success at the FIP level, the velocity rebound, the expanded repertoire, and the four pitches that grade out as above-average according to Stuff+, and be broadly interested in his services. No, May isn’t going to fetch a sheik’s ransom in prospects, even with his modest remaining salary commitment, because he’s a non-ace rental. Getting one or two prospects for whom scouting and development folks see opportunities to improve – Chaim Bloom likes to loop in those eyeballs and voices when making such decisions – does, however, seem like a realistic aim.
JoJo Romero is certainly tradable as a walk-year lefty with a multi-season recent history of solid-to-good contributions. He’s on the injured list right now with appendicitis. However, it’s not an arm injury, and players do from time to time get traded while on the IL (Shane Bieber to the Blue Jays last July is a prominent recent example). Hard-throwing Ryne Stanek might also draw interest, as he’s on a one-year pact with a club option for 2027.
Elsewhere – and regarding those trade candidates who still have years of team control remaining – Riley O’Brien should also net a worthy return as a reliever who touches triple digits and has a swing-and-miss sweeper to go with strong groundball tendencies. Just as noteworthy is that O’Brien is still pre-arbitration through next season and has late-inning, high-leverage experience. Lars Nootbaar comes with two full seasons of control, and after surgery on both heels he’s back to his pre-2025 form when it comes to getting on base, flashing hard contact, and playing capable defense at the corners.
My guess is that May, O’Brien, Nootbaar, and then one of Romero/Stanek all get traded before the deadline. A second guess I’ll make – and one I’m less confident about – is that a second member of the rotation not named Dustin May also gets traded.
Eric writes:
Another trade deadline question. Would Herrera be a good candidate to move due to poor roster fit? He isn’t playable at catcher and first base and left field are occupied (with Baez likely taking an OF spot long term). His bat also may not be good enough to DH full time. The lack of a position may hurt his value but perhaps another team may view him as a fit?
I think Herrera’s lack of progress in controlling the running game – even after elbow surgery and adjustments to his throwing mechanics – mean his days behind the plate are numbered. My guess is he’s allowed to continue catching on a part-time basis for the balance of the season, and then over the winter the Cardinals will have a perhaps difficult discussion with him that lays out those realities. I see him as a primary DH with occasional spot duty in left and at first base (while perhaps filling the largely ceremonial role of “emergency catcher”). If he hits as he did in 2024 and 2025, then his bat will carry DH. If not, then platoon detail may be in his future. I don’t really see him as a trade candidate at this time because, one, his offensive production is at a low point, and, two, other teams likely don’t see him as an option at catcher. I’m always prepared to be surprised by deadline comings and goings, though.
Anthony writes:
Which, if any, minor leaguers currently at Memphis or Springfield could the Cardinals be willing to trade at the deadline to help the major league roster? Thanks!
Honestly, I don’t think any. Maybe Nolan Gorman or Victor Scott II? I mention them because they’re getting into “change of scenery candidate” territory (especially Gorman). Beyond that, I really can’t see Bloom trading any prospects of note to help the current roster. He’s suggested time and again that he won’t compromise the long-term vision at the deadline, and in reality this increasingly looks like an average team that’s benefitting from the increasingly low bar set by the third wild card spot.
Lee writes:
1. What moves, if any, would you make to help the team reach the playoffs? 2. What do you think Chaim will do at the deadline? I’m expecting nothing will be done till a few days before the deadline to give himself a better read on this year’s team.
I don’t see Bloom doing much more than adding some bullpen depth insofar as improving the current roster is concerned. There’s perhaps a path toward a controllable-for-multiple-years and young-ish starting pitcher, should any of those be made available, but those aren’t often traded, at least at the deadline.
Chris writes:
We’re more than halfway through the season and it actually looks clearer than I was expecting what the holes are on this team that need addressing to be a legitimate playoff contender. 3rd base, Center field, left field, whichever of DH or C Herrera is not playing, and utility guy who can hit are the position players where it seems pretty clear the solutions are not on the 40-man (unless you want to extend Nootbaar). What kind of player profiles are you looking for for those positions, or is it just best available players at those positions? Can you rank those positions in order of likelihood that an internal solution will arise? I’ll save the what prospective free agent or trade could work to fill these gaps question for closer to the end of the season.
And a related contribution from mtej:
Do the Cardinals have a third baseman prospect in their system?
Is there any hope that Gorman can do a Walker-type resurrection?
Can Herrera play first base, but is his stock falling with lack of a true position and his high ground ball percentage?
Yep, I’ll rank those positions based on current internal solutions.
Catcher: There’s an abundance, of course, and I’d expect Leo Bernal will find his way to St. Louis at some point this season, possibly before September. As long as Rainiel Rodriguez sticks at the position – and it looks increasingly likely that he will until further notice – he’s the obvious long-term primary there. I’ll note that Jimmy Crooks has been pretty good in terms of underlying batted-ball numbers since his promotion. See above for my Herrera thoughts. A deadline trade of a catcher wouldn’t be at all shocking.
Left field: Joshua Báez will be called up this season barring injury or complete collapse. The return of his contact issues is a legitimate concern, as is his lack of walks, but his capacity for damage off the bat is both real and elite. I know Báez sees center on occasion, but I suspect the Cardinals prefer him at a corner and don’t want to compromise his plate focus by having him play a much more demanding defensive position at the big-league level.
Third base: I’m certainly not optimistic about Nolan Gorman, but, well, if Jordan Walker can be fixed, then much is possible. It’s not out of the question that Gorman will be traded leading up to the deadline, and if he’s not he seems like a non-tender candidate going into his second year of arbitration. If neither of those things happen, then it says the Cardinals still see potential for him. Elsewhere, it’s too soon to dismiss Blaze Jordan in light of his promising glove-work, contact skills, and not-terrible xwOBA. I’ve mentioned this before – and I’m certainly not alone in this opinion – but Jesús Báez, who’s manning shortstop for Springfield and thriving since his promotion, is potentially the third baseman of the future in St. Louis. None of these are surefire options, but they are options.
Center field: Nathan Church is a plus glove in center, but he’s not producing at the plate and not doing any better on the quality-of-contact front. Victor Scott II struggled badly in St. Louis this season, and he’s fared similarly with the bat down in Memphis. Looking further into the long-term, Tai Peete, Ryan Mitchell, and recent top pick Trevor Condon are all viable solutions, but it’s going to be a while before they’re ready to help at the highest level. Peete, age 20, has got very promising power potential, but right now he’s striking out more than 30% of the time against High-A competition. He’s the closest to the majors among that trio. I’m not particularly bullish on Chase Davis at this point, especially as a center fielder, but I suppose he’s worth mentioning. It’ll be interesting to see whether Chaim Bloom and company target any center field prospects with their deadline maneuverings.
Jibby:
I agree with Joe Sheehan that the ASG is an anachronism that should be done away with. But I do think some sort of skills competition should replace it on Tuesday with Monday still being the Home Run Derby. Any thoughts on what types of skills competitions you’d like to see in Dayn’s world? Let’s try to focus on competitions that teams would actually approve. So, we can’t go with the pitcher with the hardest throw.
While I do watch and lock in on the Home Run Derby, especially this year, the All-Star Game itself is basically background noise for me. So I’m with Joe.
You ask an interesting question. Why not take a cue from Korea?
All right, I don’t really care about bunting, but I’d probably keep one eye on an MLB version of the above. I’d probably watch a timed “sprint all the way around the bases contest” featuring the game’s fastest players. Maybe an outfielder throwing accuracy derby, assuming teams would be OK with that? The current leader in ABS overturns gets to call balls and strikes for the first inning of the Futures Game? My real idea to spice up the All-Star Game is to re-format it into MLB All-Stars versus Double- and Triple-A All-Stars. I’d actually watch that. I realize the MLBers would probably win easily, but everyone loves an underdog.
Jay writes:
Church is batting .131 with a .161 OBP and a .395 OPS in July. He is currently mired in a helacious 3-for-37 slump, with only 2 extra base hits this month, yet keeps getting starts. This isn’t 2019 Matt Carpenter where you ride it out because of his past work and his contract. Who owns the bigger piece of blame pie here; Oli for continuing to play him or Bloom for not making the obvious roster move?
See above for my Church thoughts and my center field thoughts. There just aren’t really any good options in center right now, unless you want to stretch Joshua Báez at the position and ignore his plate discipline issues. That’s why I don’t really assign any blame. What else are they going to do? Maybe there’s a Chase Davis discussion to be had before season’s end but that’s not going to happen right away. It’s just a weak spot right organizationally right now, at least in the majors and within the higher rungs of the system.
Craig writes:
The Cardinals being 6 games over as we hit the back half of July is obviously a pleasant surprise. Most fans I think would agree that summers are a lot better when the Cardinals have a winning club. Chaim Bloom and his front office appear to have this thing building into a potential juggernaut as the farm system keeps adding budding talent to all levels. And while all this is happening at the lower levels, the big club is and will always be the main attraction. Chaim has said repeatedly the organization cannot stray from the bigger picture, and also recently commented on the current clubhouse culture at the JJ extension how impressed he is with the winning culture being built in St. Louis with the guys here now. My question is about that. How does he explain to those guys up here now that he’s taking a Noot or a May out of that room, to add to what MAY BECOME in 2027, 2028 etc. What does it say to the guys here about that winning culture that he commented on? “We love it guys, but let’s just keep that attitude going into next year”? I’m not advocating for some Skubal or Robbie Ray trade at all. Chaim can add to this club without using a top 50 org player by taking on a contract some club wants to shed. There are ways to tell this current club that you believe in them without derailing your future. I guess all this is moot if this team loses 6/7 and it’s probably time to trade some players. But if they stay +6, +8 or god forbid +10, I just don’t see how you can subtract and possibly hurt the culture you’ve been building for a winning season in the future that is in no way guaranteed even with a loaded system. If you read all of this, thank you Dayn. I enjoy your work and let’s hope this club keeps grinding and winning.
Thank you for the kind words. Since you submitted this contribution, the Cardinals have endured a downturn and are at this writing 52-50 with a minus-4 run differential. The third NL wild card spot is still very much in play, but that’s also the case for a lot of other teams. I don’t think the team’s performance taken in total is enough to spare May or Nootbaar or select others at the deadline. There’s also this:
15-18
9-10
The first is the Cardinals’ record this season when Nootbaar starts, and the second is the Cardinals’ record in those games May has started. This is reductive and oversimplified, of course, but it makes the point that the Cardinals were faring fine before Nootbaar was healthy and have likewise been fine when someone other than May has started on the mound.
As well, there’s the fact that a trade of May probably means a permanent spot in the rotation for Hunter Dobbins and something of a path for Quinn Mathews. In the outfield, a Nootbaar trade may – I emphasize may, with a nod toward his ongoing strikeout issues – mean a call-up for Joshua Báez. Such prospect promotions are exciting in their own way and may be even a bit galvanizing for a roster already so populated with young players. I’d add that there are a number of players who are currently enjoying regular playing time at the highest level specifically because of those prior offseason trades of popular veterans. That affords some understanding. On another level, Bloom takes seriously things like clubhouse mood and esprit de corps, and those will assuredly be part of his deadline calculus. That doesn’t mean trades will be free of any such consequences, but that aspect will be given weight.
If this team were barging toward 95 wins and a division title, then I think this deadline would unfold much differently, but that’s not close to the present reality.
OK, that’ll do it for this time. Back soon with more.