Reader Mailbag, Part 2: Masyn Winn's bat, the run differential, the prospect of an international draft, lineup talk, and more

Let's open some mail, shall we? We'll use an ivory-handle letter opener and everything

Part 1 of the mailbag was last time, and now it’s time for Part 2. Forthwith ...

Jay writes:

Bloom has done such a great job at creating the feeling that the roster is always evolving. The roster stasis under Mozeliak had become unbearable. That said, it often feels like Bloom is swapping a flat tire for a bald tire, which is not really the “upgrade” the media often labels it. Such is life in a retooling, right? But too often this season certain players have hung around (Gorman, Pages, Scott) under the guise of “well, he’s a better option than (insert name of AAAA player on major league roster).” While significant payroll is not likely to be added in 2027, I do hope real upgrades will be made, even if they are tires with just some tread remaining.

I’ll push back a bit here. As much as we’re tired of the term “runway,” it’s still relevant, and those young/young-ish players were being given an opportunity to find a higher level under the expanded dugout staff and, behind the scenes, the overhauled and improved player-development program.

You’ll recall that Nolan Gorman in particular didn’t receive consistent playing time last season -- 402 plate appearances in 107 games and duty at two infield positions. That was because of a pair of stints on the injured list and a crowded infield that at that time still included Nolan Arenado. Maybe we felt like Gorman was given too much run this season while not producing, but, well, he was optioned after just 62 games played in St. Louis. I also think it’s worth appreciating the significant defensive strides Gorman made this season at third base. That strikes me as a measured yet responsive decision timeline. As for Scott, it’s more of the same. He spent the winter retooling his swing and approach, and after 61 games in the majors this year the Cardinals decided he needed more developmental time in Memphis (a decision aided by the returns of Lars Nootbaar and Nathan Church from the IL).

I, too, was a bit vexed by the decision to prioritize Pedro Pagés to such an extent, but in retrospect I understand the developmental time given to Jimmy Crooks this year (aside: Crooks’ quality of contact since being recalled has been quite good, so don’t sweat his top-line numbers). Chaim Bloom has said repeatedly that prospects are going to be promoted when they’re deemed ready and not necessarily when needs at the highest level are most acute. That’s quite sensible.

Overall, I understand your frustrations without necessarily sharing them.

Brian writes:

What happened to Masyn Winn’s hitting? As a 22-year-old he had a 104 OPS+. The year after it was 90. This year it’s 77. His home runs in those same years: 15 - 9 - 2 (on pace for 5). His isolated power: 149 - 110 - 83. Is it all related to the lingering knee problems he’s had since last year’s All-Star break? (His OPS+ in the first half last year was 95 - only around 76 ever since.) And if it is knee-related, at what point to the Cards considering putting him on the IL for a few weeks to help him regain his lower-body strength?

He’s more than 1,500 plate appearances into his big-league career, and across that span he has a .297 wOBA and a .309 xwOBA. Even in 2024 when Winn popped 15 home runs and had an OPS+ of 104, his xwOBA was .315. Maybe this is just who he is as a hitter? And, frankly, that’s OK. Winn provides a high floor thanks to his defensive excellence at the premium position of shortstop, and offensively he’s not a major liability by positional standards. MLB shortstop this season have a wOBA of .309 and an xwOBA of .310 (this year, Winn’s xwOBA is .313). As long as he remains arguably the best defensive shortstop in baseball, you can live with that production at the plate.

I suppose it’s possible Winn’s knee is still an issue, as his sprint speeds, while still significantly above average, haven’t really gotten back to those 2023-24 levels. However, that’s all conjecture.

Jibby writes:

What is your favorite book you have read so far this year?

My top five of 2026 thus far:

1. The Great Believers by Rebecca Makkai

2. Ohio by Stephen Markley

3. The Deluge by Stephen Markley

4. And the Band Played On By Randy Shilts

5. Pachinko by Min Jin Lee

I just finished The Director by Daniel Kehlmann, and while I liked it overall it lost some momentum for me in the second half. I love reading recs, so feel free to share your own in the comments.

Kyle writes:

Can you provide your current preferred lineups against vs a righty and a lefty? They’re developing an interesting cast of characters

I do love lineup talk. Here’s how I’d go with the current active roster.

Versus RHPs

1. JJ Wetherholt, 2B

2. Jordan Walker, RF

3. Alec Burleson, 1B

4. Iván Herrera, DH

5. Lars Nootbaar, LF

6. Blaze Jordan 3B

7. Jimmy Crooks, C

8. Nathan Church, CF

9. Mason Winn, SS

Versus LHPs

1. JJ Wetherholt, 2B

2. Jordan Walker, RF

3. Iván Herrera, DH

4. Nelson Velázquez, LF

5. Alec Burleson, 1B

6. Blaze Jordan, 3B

7. Masyn Winn, SS

8. Nathan Church, CF

9. Jimmy Crooks, C

I’d like to get Walker’s power in that two hole, although there’s nothing wrong with Herrera’s on-base chops at that spot (Herrera’s GIDP tendencies do give me pause when it comes to putting him just behind Wetherholt). When Herrera’s catching, I’d DH Crooks against right-handers and Velázquez against lefties (while playing Nootbaar in left against lefties under such circumstances). Winn should be batting ninth against right-handers, and batting him ninth breaks up the lefty lane before the lineup flips back around to Wetherholt. I can see the argument for dropping Burleson a spot against lefties.

Don writes:

I’ve been shouting till I was blue in the face, figuratively of course, to anyone who will listen that the cardinals operating w a 37 man roster this year is a giant deal as far as trying to contend goes. Overreacting, moderate concern or major concern? It’s huge as far as pitching goes in 2026 IMO.

I’ll assume you’re talking about the injured pitchers on the 40-player roster -- Richard Fitts, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe, who just recently returned to action after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. In the case of Fitts and Roby, who won’t pitch in 2026, they could be recalled and then placed on the 60-day IL, which would clear spots on the 40. However, doing so would mean they would accrue MLB service time, and, fair or not, teams don’t like for well regarded young players to whittle away at their service time while being unavailable when such a thing can be avoided. I think the roster feels this when it comes to paths for bullpen churn (having more relievers with minor league options remaining would help matters). My guess is that if they did have those three spots available, then Luis Gastelum and Scott Blewett would probably take up two of them, and maybe they’d keep one open for Quinn Mathews at a date to be determined. Whatever the case, the reality is the Cardinals have prioritized preserving service time over maxed-out roster flexibility.

Eric writes:

I have read articles by well respected baseball analysts calling the Cardinals fraudulent due to their underlying metrics, third order record, etc. And while I respect that line of thought and the work that goes into it, how much does it matter at the end of the season? For example, wouldn’t you rather be a team that makes the playoffs with a third order record 8 wins less than your actual record versus a team with a third order record 8 wins more than actual but miss the playoffs?

It’s a legit concern when you look forward, and anecdotally there’s some sentiment that the first two games of the Royal series hinted at coming regression (Cardinal 70 recently had a very good piece on this). Right now, the Cardinals have a plus-4 run differential, which translates to an expected record of 38-37 at this point of the season. The third order standings peg the Cardinals at 36.6-37.4. In other words, the team has outplayed expectations by three games so far. That’s not a cavernous margin, but it’s notable. Let’s note, though, that among the Cardinals’ fellow wild card contenders, just three teams -- the Cubs, Nationals, and Pirates -- have better run differentials. The Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Reds are all in negative territory and have out-played their run differentials by greater margins than the Cardinals have. The Marlins are at zero.

Teams can and do outplay their run differentials over the course of an entire season, but, yes, more often a team will find that underlying level. If, say, the Cardinals are .500-ish the rest of the way, then that’s still 85 wins or so, and I’d expect that would put them in the mix for a wild-card spot. Let’s also note the margins are tight. A hot week could flip this particular script entirely. For now, though, it’s entirely fair to point out the Cardinals have enjoyed some good fortune thus far in 2026.

Matt writes:

Do they try to extend Dustin May? He’s put back on the weight he lost during that weird killer salad issue almost 2 years ago and is pitching like an ace. I can imagine him wanting some security with a longer contract as he turns 29 soon, and DeWitt currently has a pre-arb payroll commitment of just $43 million next year. May at the top of this pitching staff for the next several years would be a welcome sight to see. Wait and see if he lasts the entire year of course.

As I wrote last time out, I’m in favor of this (despite his rough outing on Sunday). As long as he remains healthy and performing in such a manner, the Cardinals would do well to pursue an extension. He seems to be enjoying pitching in St. Louis, and thus far the Cardinals’ approach to pitcher health has at least coincided with a peak run by May. Something that gives him the freedom of opt-outs and the security of more conventional player options on the back end could make it workable for both sides. I hope it happens.

Matt writes:

Diamondbacks are apparently looking for a LH bat and relief pitching. Would Burleson and Romero get the D-Backs Comp A pick along with some pitching prospects? I know I’m in the minority on Burleson, but that weird tomahawk swing and poor defense at 1B...can’t get over those in my head. Maybe if he had Griffey’s swing (not necessarily the same results), I might get past this issue.

I don’t like to get into specific trade packages, but I can’t imagine the Cardinals are interested in trading one of their best hitters -- in terms of both top-line results and underlying batted-ball performance -- who’s 27 years old and still has two full seasons of team control left. That strikes me as a deal that might be considered more seriously during the offseason.

Whatever you think of the aesthetics of Burleson’s swing, he finds the ideal attack angle more than half the time and at a better clip than the average MLB hitter. Defensively, yes, he’s a net minus, but let’s appreciate that he has just a bit more than 1,200 career defensive innings at the position. I do, however, expect JoJO Romero to be traded before the Aug. 3 deadline.

Matt writes:

Do you think the next CBA will include an international draft?

I do not. Latin players, who of course make up a large percentage of MLBPA membership, are in general terms opposed to an international draft because it would strip away the freedom of younger Latin players to pick their organization. It would be a major and divisive concession for the players to make.

Along these lines, MLB’s recent proposal to overhaul the draft may best be characterized as a cynical farce. Too much of the current guild of owners, far too infiltrated by the private-equity mindset, want to limit costs above all, full stop. They don’t seem to care how much long-term harm it does to the game because they plan to cash out before those consequences are realized. Their proposal to cut the draft to 12 rounds and ban high school players from being drafted essentially offloads developmental duties to college programs, who have far different incentives (short-term performance over long-term development) than major league organizations do. The league’s behavior in CBA negotiations thus far has been deeply unserious.

OK, that’ll do for it this round. Thanks for all the great contributions, and I’ll be back soon.