The numbers that will tell the story of the Cardinals' 2025 season

Read some words while waiting for today's game

When I speak in the above headline of the numbers that will define the season, I do not mean the most obvious and truest of numbers – i.e., the team’s record and, at a more foundational level, the team’s runs scored and runs allowed. Obviously, those are the most important ones at the team level and the ones that will determine whether the 2025 season is a success or failure or something between the two extremes.

Rather, I’m talking about key indicators at the individual level, the ones that will tell us whether or not the young players now or soon to be part of the core have developed beyond their defining weaknesses. As well, I’ll loop in select veterans for assigned digits that will illuminate their performance in 2025 and on another level the state of the reset/transition now in place. Some of these metrics to come will stabilize and take on a bit of meaning fairly early in the season, but others will need a larger data sample in order to matter. I’ll unfurl these in no particular order. Onward …

Jordan Walker’s barrel rate

Walker, who mind you doesn’t turn 23 until the back half of May, hits the ball hard, but his prevailing issue to date has been elevating his batted balls so that they do optimal damage. In order to realize his power potential, he needs to get the ball off the ground and into the air more regularly. That’s where barrel rate comes in. You’ll see varying parameters for barrel rate, but the one we’re using defines barrel rate as the percentage of batted balls that leave the bat at 95 mph or greater and at a launch angle between 10 and 35 degrees. This is where Walker needs to dwell in order to be the heart-of-the-order thumper he can be.

In 2023, he had a barrel rate of 18.3% versus a league-average figure of 18.6%, and last season Walker had a barrel rate of 17.2% versus a league-average figure of 18.2%. Across his brief career, Walker is in the 40th percentile in barrel rate among MLB hitters with at least 500 total plate appearances over the last two seasons. He needs to find his way to a much higher tier. All of this doesn’t need to happen right away – again, he’s still 22 years of age – but progress in 2025 is very much in order.

Nolan Gorman’s K%

Gorman’s capacity to do damage on contact cannot be questioned. What can be questioned, though, is his ability to make contact in the first place. Now to back up both of these stirring claims …

• Gorman’s xwOBACON, or his expected wOBA when making contact with the ball, is .475 for his career. That’s versus a league-average mark of .368 over that same span. This puts him near the very top of the league. He’s also elite at pulling the ball in the air, which is the surest path to doing extra-base damage.

• Gorman’s 2024 K% of 37.6 is in the bottom 1.0% of MLB hitters. His career K% of 34.1 isn’t much better.

This isn’t really an issue of his being a free swinger, although he could probably stand to swing a little less overall. His chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone is roughly league-average for his career, and he’s a bit more willing than the average hitter to take a walk. Rather, he makes contact at low rates when he swings at any pitch, outside the zone or inside the zone. His is a powerful and fast swing, yes, but it’s also an exploitable and porous one. Gorman has notably struggled to make contact with pitches at the top of the strike zone, and in 2024 he was worse than ever in this regard (image via Baseball Savant):

Gorman this past offseason worked closely with new hitting coach Brant Brown to address the issue – not the first time Gorman has undertaken such efforts. Grooving and “muscle memorizing” swing changes takes a while, and it won’t be surprising if Gorman struggles with contact early in the season (for what it’s worth, Gorman did show significantly improved contact skills this spring, even if the overall production wasn’t there). As we get deeper into 2025 and he’s had ample time to implement the changes in a game setting, this will be something to watch. With promising infielders like JJ Wetherholt (he’s opening the season at Double-A) and Thomas Saggese on the way, Gorman needs to show progress on this front and announce himself as an essential part of the present and future in St. Louis.

Another factor is how much Gorman plays. While I prefer a more balanced approach to taking away plate appearances to create room for Victor Scott II in the lineup, it appears that Gorman will be the primary “donor,” at least to start the season. As such, it’s even more important that he shows the relevant skills growth in as timely a manner as possible.